The Bowen Estate 2018 shiraz is an excellent example of Coonawarra winemaking. I met the winemaker at the Food and Wine Expo a lot of years ago. The winemaker was an excellent guy, I signed up to the Bowen Estate newsletter and have been a consumer of both their shiraz and cabernet since. 

The colour of this shiraz is carpet killer, dark ink as you pour it into the bottle, you don’t want to spill this deep red on anything of value. The deep crimson red reminds me of squid ink, this deep colour with equally deep hue lives up to its colour. The flavours match the colour, that is for sure with violet, licorice, plum and blackberry. Bowen Estate suggests a 6 to 8 year cellaring potential, I opened my bottle in mid 2022 so it had 5 years to develop in the bottle and that development time really smoothed out the tannins and balanced the acid.

As we watch Putin’s Ukrainian invasion falter, we wonder what his real motives are. we start to wonder if his grand plan for Europe is in tatters. We won’t know for sure if he had intended further invasions, especially for Poland. It would be fair to suspect Moldova was going to be the target of a false flag action too, at time of writing, this is looking less likely now.

Whilst Poland is part of NATO, I ask myself is Poland really safe? NATO has been willing to sacrifice Ukraine, I wonder how many really thought Ukraine would put up such a strong defence. To be fair, Ukraine is not a NATO member and the alliance was unwilling to offer expedited membership. So NATO has no obligation to defend Ukraine, they do allow a degree of support with weapons and support, there will be no direct concentration with Russia though. 

The people of Poland are concerned that Russian aggression will target them next, that is a fair concern. Is Poland next in line? This was certainly seeming to be the case prior to the strong and dogged Ukrainian resistance. As Poland is a NATO member, this would have been a trigger to invoke NATO articles. Putin was working on perceived NATO weakness caused by fractures in the relationship and indecision.

If Putin’s forces had taken Ukraine rapidly, he may have been emboldened to take further action and head to Poland. They would certainly be on alert, Putin may have pushed NATO harder to see if internal schism occurs, then he could fully exploit any weakness. At this point, I am not seeing the type of internal squabbling that would fracture the alliance. This is after all, the whole reason for the NATO alliance.

Naturally, Poland would be feeling pretty exposed if Ukraine was to fall into Russian control. Putin counted on the same weakness he saw when he took Crimea from Ukraine back in 2014. Obama was president and the US and EU let it happen, a few speeches, but that was pretty much it. Now that the US, Britain, the EU and a whole host of other nations ranging from Canada, Australia and Nordic countries with Japan and Ireland supplying non-lethal aid. This is sending a clear message to Russia – the world is against you.

So Elizabeth doesn’t believe in a back-up plan; that’s interesting since her primary plan implementation went so poorly. I am a firm believer in contingency planning, we are taught this at business school as this is a prudent strategy. I am adding a few comments to a post I found in the archives, this is not a good look for the Stanford Business School, but to be fair, this is not representative of Stanford values.

Of course, as Elizabeth’s plan was to defraud investors, shareholders and financiers of their funds, this was her one and only plan. Dubbed as the female Steve Jobs, Elizabeth Holmes was seen as a new and brash entrepreneurial leader of the new economy. She even dressed like Jobs, she had a board consisting of high profile members including Henry Kissenger, George Shultz, William Perry and James Mattis.

However, as the dot.com tech crash of the early 2000s proved, investors need to actually analyse assets, cash flows, capital requirements and ultimately if the idea is viable. Elizabeth was a highly visible salesperson, I am loathe to use the term entrepreneur as she really didn’t display the attributes of a genuine and ethical innovator. We all love new ideas and technology, but one needs to be releastic here, science and engineering is based on logic – this was neither.

Possibly the original proposal was to develop a full range of blood tests from a single drop of blood. However, when it became clear the proposition was not viable, development halted, a press release organised and the company embarking on new research. I don’t believe the market punishes companies too harshly when a concept is proven to be non-viable, the company needs to regroup and reallocate research funds to more viable projects. This is the start-up culture, not every business idea is a winner, but the integrity of the enterprise ensures future opportunities.

Vasse Felix has a pretty good reputation, their cabernet sauvignon is one of my favourites. So when they come out with a Filus range and don’t change the labeling all that much, you become concerned that consumers will see the lesser quality cabernet sauvignon as their premium product. Maybe this is a little harsh, this is no means a bad cabernet sauvignon, it just feels funny they come out with a cheaper range. 

The 2016 is pretty much sold out, most of what I used for the tasting is what I had in my cellar, I have to admit, I stopped purchasing the Filus range. I would rather pay the premium price for the premium product. That’s not entirely true, there is a Heysbury range that is at a whole different level, that is more for special occasions and priced accordingly. So now Vasse Felix has wines at three different price points, but with pretty much the same labeling, so differentiation for the consumer may be a little difficult 

The 2016 Filus was matured in oak barriques, as this is their economy range, you can bet this is not new barriques. Or so I thought, when I checked the tasting notes I found this was 19% new oak and 81% barriques in the one to five year old range – I stand corrected. The 2016 was matured for 12 months so the oak flavour is pretty mild and is an 86% blend of cabernet sauvignon and 14% Malbec. 

Well known Western Australian wine critic rated this Cabernet sauvignon at 95 points, I am a little surprised but he knows his stuff. The tasting notes offer blackcurrant, I agree there and then they offer dark cherry – I see that too. They then use damp earth as a descriptor, that I am not so sure with cellar mingle, I don’t even know what that is with spicy complexity – I see that. For the price range, it isn’t a bad drink but as previously stated, I would prefer to pay a little more and step up into their next range.

I received a call from United Cellars, they had a couple of offers, my choice was the 2017 Woodlands Margaret Cabernet Merlot Malbec, it was a pretty decent selection. I got it at a pretty good price, but I knew straight away this was an expensive bottle of wine, we knew straight away this was a quality bottle of wine, I had to go back through the invoice to see how much I paid for this – it wasn’t cheap.

This is a Bordeaux style with a blend of 86% cabernet sauvignon, 8% merlot and 6% malbec. I have found that pure Malbec is a little nondescript. I know the tasting notes are black cherry, plum, raspberry and hints of pomegranate, but I feel this is a little mid-palate. But when blended in a Bordeaux style, this fills the mid-range of the wine beautifully. This wine had a nice colour – deep crimson, the nose had hints of vanilla, blackcurrant, and some tobacco. A full body and long lingering finish, this was a great drink, I have 5 more bottles and will open one on a warm summer afternoon.

Woodlands have three basic collections based on their vineyards, Wilyabrup Valley, Woodlands Brook Vineyard and the Woodlands Vineyard. The Woodlands Vineyard is their oldest vineyard, planted in 1973 with cabernet sauvignon, between 1974 to 1976 cabernet sauvignon, malbec, cabernet franc and pinot noir was added. Whilst this wine is primarily cabernet sauvignon, the merlot really fills it out with some bay leaf in the after taste. From what I can gather, the cabernet sauvignon was sourced from the Woodlands Vineyard with from what I can tell, the merlot is sourced from Wilyabrup Valley.

The Margaret is sourced from the Woodlands Vineyard, as this is their oldest plantings, one would expect this to be their most intense fruit. Prior to United Cellars selling me this wine, I knew little of Woodlands, so my next trip down to Margaret River will include a tour of these vineyards. I am now really interested and will make sure I finally visit this vineyard, I guess this will be a winter visit so exploring the Woodlands reds is my next priority – really looking forward to this.

So, we now know the Ghost of Kyiv is not real; still, was it a pretty good narrative to create during a national emergency? But what it also does is undermine your primary message, now no news service will believe any story coming out of the Ukraine government. So, I ask myself, is this really a good story to sell – I don’t think so.

I followed the story as it unfolded, the Ukranian military was under siege, they were outnumbered, out gunned and lacked the logistical support. In the air, the Ukraine Air Force was dominated, they needed to utilise their air power assets selectively. The Ukraine Air Force lacked fighter jets, fighter jet technology, logistics and of course air-to-air missiles to engage Russian jets.

So yeah, the Ukrainian Air Force was severely outgunned, like the rest of the Ukrainian armed forces, they put up a pretty decent fight despite their situation. They do not have the most modern weapons, they do not have the ability to engage the enemy on a one-to-one basis, they need to get in, get a shot off and get out of there before they are located and blown out of the sky. 

The Russian air defences are a constant threat, they have limited resources and they are flying without genuine support, they put up a good show and even if the Ghost of Kyiv is not real – they are defending their nation. I have a positive view, sure NATO is not defending Ukraine, but weapons are flowing in and will eventually win this conflict.

At some stage Ukraine and Russia will need to negotiate an end to this war, the Ukrainian side will seek to negotiate from a strong position. They are certainly doing that, they have begun their offensive and they have Russia running away from the fight. Now Russia has called up 300,000 reservists, this is a serious escalation and one feels won’t end well.

Ukraine will have to bring some concessions to negotiations, they can offer some concessions such as not joining NATO. But let’s face it, Ukraine has shown it does not need NATO protection, they are doing fine all by themselves. Yes, they have canvassed NATO and nations for weapons, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has worked hard to garner international support and procure weapons for Ukraine. A pretty good concession to offer Russia for complete withdrawal of all their forces is not having NATO in Ukraine.

Then there is the case for reparations, Russia has to pay for the destruction of Ukraine. The Russian oligarchs hold an unequal share of the wealth of Russia, they were gifted businesses as long as they supported Putin. These are the international Russian assets that will be required to rebuild Ukraine, they are not going to win. Ukraine will negotiate from a reasonably strong position, they are beginning to turn this war around and embarrass Russian on an international stage.

I would severely doubt international sanctions will be immediately removed once Russia extracts itself from Ukraine. From what I am reading, these sanctions are causing some pretty severe limitations in Russia, they are also pulling conscripts from factories manufacturing weapons, so that will be interesting. Since it has been well broadcast that fleeing Russian troops left weapons and equipment for Ukraine to use against them in the future.

I would say Russian gas will need to be redirected to pay for these repatriations, nothing will bring back the lost Ukrainian lives, but this will fund the rebuilding of Ukraine. The Russian tactic of destroying cities will come at a cost, they may have got away with it in Syria, but a victorious Ukraine will hold Russia to account. You can be sure the international community will have no hesitation to confiscate Russian assets and offer them to Ukraine.

So what are the implications of the extensive damage to the Kerch Bridge? Ironically damaged on Putin’s 70th birthday, this is more than a symbolic blow to the Russian President. Mocked by Ukrainians, Happy Birthday Mr President was part of the announcement – too funny.

Ironically, this bridge is a personal project of President Putin, so the timing of the explosion was immaculate. This is a further blow to his prestige, his personal project was targeted and successfully hit. Everyone expects the Russian military to respond with attacks on Ukrainian residential areas, while they cannot respond on the battlefield, they can attack non-combatants.

The Russians have been using the Kerch Bridge to resupply Russian forces in the south, opened in 2018, this bridge is a symbolic structure for the Russians after their annexation of Crimea in 2014. The project was fast tracked by Putin himself, there were questions regarding the quality of the construction, this will test the engineering of the bridge. This was central to holding on to the territory of Crimea, I wonder if Ukraine will demolish this bridge once they retake Crimea.

I would hope the Ukrainian forces wait for the Russians to repair the bridge before hitting it again, this will keep their resources tied up. This will also give the Ukrainian military time to generate new offensives to deplete their resources even further. The Russian army is not known for their logistical abilities, so this is expected to further dent their aspirations in the Ukraine invasion.

Could Putin use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? The threat is very real, but what is the likelihood really? Russia is losing, Putin knows this, the whole world apart from a whole bunch of conspiracy theorists and Putin apologists know this. President Biden has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin to not use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

So what could the likely US response be? The Washington Post reports private communications have been sent to Russian counterparts warning of grave consequences if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. The New York Times also reports the Biden government has been in constant communications with the Kremlin warning of catastrophic consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons.

The Biden administration has kept communications purposely vague so the Russian leadership is generally unsure how the US would respond. This is a pretty good strategy, they do not want to signal their exact intentions, the Kremlin just knows it will be negative. I am trying to determine what the end game for Russia is. They are already facing battlefield losses, apart from a total loss, what is next for Russia. We could be looking at a total economic and military collapse, much like the end of the USSR in 1991.

There have been varying scenarios, from the US sinking the Black Sea fleet in retaliation to attacking the divisions that launched the attacks in Ukraine, or a no-fly zone over Ukraine enforced. Would the US retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it is considered unlikely. They are using surveillance to ensure tactical nuclear weapons are not transported to the frontlines, they could possibly destroy the launcher prior to launching a missile. Likewise, Russia could deliver tactical nuclear weapons via artillery, that would be harder to track and defend against.

Why would you pursue an MBA? This is the question I ask myself frequently, why put yourself through the effort and pain? Then there is the cost, is it worth the loss of salary and the tuition fees?

In this current covid environment, I was lucky, I have already graduated so I will not join the rush to get educated. I understand that people want to use this period of weakness to gain knowledge, skills and enhance their employment opportunities. Without a strong alumni network, gaining a business based qualification is fraught with danger and missed opportunities.

One has to get out to gain solid employment opportunities and contacts, the internships were so important in this model, they provided the basis of opportunity. This is really the reputation of the business school, they need not only the business contacts, their courses should be designed with industry input. Without a dedicated alumni network to support graduates, you are just paying a course fee and you are on your own, this is the role of the business school.

This should include industry aligned associations such as the Institute of Company Directors, the Australian Institute of Management, the Project Management Institute, the Australian Human Resources Institute or the Australian Institute of Training and Development depending on what specialty you intend to pursue.