Where the Southern Ocean and Indian Ocean meets

Its not really the end of the world, Cape Leeuwin is a lighthouse on the point where the Indian Ocean meets the Southern Ocean, also the most south westerly tip of Australia, it does feel like the end of the world overlooking the two oceans. The section of ocean is very treacherous, the sheer number of shipwrecks in the region necessitated the lighthouse.

The Cape Naturaliste lighthouse is still operational, moving to fully automated operation in 1982, the kerosene burner and clockwork mechanism was totally manually operated and now run on mains electricity operated by the Australian Maritime Safely Authority. The lens was rotated by a counterweight driving clockwork mechanism with a pressure kerosene mantle type beacon. The lighthouse was completed in 1896 and constructed from local materials, the lighthouse keeper’s cottage is open and from May to September the lighthouse is a great vantage point for migrating whales. 

The M1A1 Abrams tank for Ukraine

Out-gunned, out-manned, and out-resourced, the Ukrainian military has plenty of constraints they need to contend with. The battleground of Ukraine is a brilliant testing ground for weapons systems, the Ukrainians have to be resourceful, they are testing weapons for a number of weapons manufacturers and nations.

Australia has gifted 49 retired M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine, this follows the M1A1 tanks given by the United States previously. The tanks have been assigned to the 425th Separate Assault Regiment Skela, formally Skala. This is a frontline assault group involved in the defense of Bukhmut and counter-offensives in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Formerly a battalion, with the tank and artillery reinforcements, this is now designated a regiment even though some may claim this is closer to a division with around 13,000 personnel.

What we have learnt is the M1A1 Abrams has serious deficiencies that have been exposed in Ukraine. Australia has now taken possession of the M1A2 variants with enhanced armour, improved targeting and communications. There are concerns related to the survivability of the earlier M1A1 models. The M1A2 upgraded arrangements include Commander’s Independent Thermal Viewer [CITV] allowing the tank commander to independently scan for targets and pivot the main gun instantly without directing the gunner. Ammunition Data Link [ADL] enabling digital communication between the fire control system and smart rounds for point-detonate, delay, and airburst effects.

The Auxiliary Power Unit [APU] has an under-armor power generation allowing the tank to operate sensors and communications without idling the main turbine engine, thus lowering its fuel use and thermal signature. The M1A2 upgraded armor package includes improved counter-IED electronics and compatibility with active protection systems. Finally, the digital electrical architecture replaced legacy wiring with dual processors continuously analysing system data and support future networking needs to ensure current wiring practices.

Defending Australia’s northern approaches

With Chinese military forces asserting aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea and maritime approaches, the risk of escalation is seriously increasing. With threats made against Taiwan by President Xi Jinping, western nations are increasingly concerned. The lack of a consistent approach by the Trump Administration raises further concerns, there is no strategic direction, instead an approach mired in a series of chaotic missteps and uncertainty.

The Indonesian islands provide a defensive barrier for warships approaching Australia’s northern and western approaches with Sumatra, Java, and the smaller islands of Bali, Lombok, West and East Nusa Tenggara, through to Timor-Leste providing a barrier. Papua New Guinea and West Papua provide protection for Queensland and the Northern Territory. Naturally, this does not protect Australia from ballistic missiles fired from the Chinese mainland.

The infrastructure in the North West of Australia includes oil and gas fields, iron ore load-out facilities and iron ore mines. This is serious economic infrastructure, attacking and destroying this places whole industries in jeopardy. Western Australia lacks military bases, airforce bases to begin with, air power in the form of fighter jets, there are no F-35 or F/A-18 on the west coast. Neither is reconnaissance aircraft based in Western Australia including E-7A Wedgetail electronic warfare, P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol, and MC-55A Peregrine, as well as the unmanned MQ-4C Triton aircraft.

The key to the defensive strategy is area denial, ships traversing through the Indonesian islands could be detected early with bottlenecks between islands creating a target rich environment. With upgraded infrastructure on Cocos-Keeling Islands and Christmas Island. This should include radar systems to track shipping, where fighter aircraft can operate, and missile defences. Air defence systems should be based on the islands to protect the region as well as an army contingent to protect the island from invasion. I reckon that would be a pretty good posting for defence force personnel too, sure the nightlife will be quiet for the young ones, but the location would be idyllic.

Strategic Management – is it really necessary?

Ok, so strategic management is the continuous planning, monitoring and analysis allowing an organisation to meet its goals and objectives; where does that leave me as a budding strategic planner? Strategic management involves managing resources to create a competitive advantage in an organisation, this is planning and the management of high-level organisational resources and processes.

Strategic management provides the direction the enterprise must take to meet stated organisational objectives. The development of operating plans and policies are designed to achieve stated objectives allocating resources to ensure the successful implementation of the plans. Strategy formulation involves the development of policies and action plans to achieve desired outcomes.

It is argued strategic management is too static for modern business, from my interactions in the corporate world, businesses that fail to plan and fly by the seat of their pants ultimately fail. I will never get involved in a business with a partner that doesn’t take strategic planning seriously, not when I am investing my own capital. I have learnt the hard way previously, I cannot operate without a coherent overarching plan.

Charlie Munger’s three Ls

I was reading an excerpt from a Charlie Munger interview taken before his death at age 99. For those unfamiliar with who Charlie Munger was, Charlie was the longstanding business partner of Berkshire Hathaway co-owner Warren Buffett.

During the interview Charlie illustrated his business acumen, his shrewdness and his risk averse outlook. Both Warren and Charlie reviewed the business cycle, they knew when a market was overheated and heading for a correction, they would be criticised for missing the easy money at the top of a boom when they would start converting assets to cash, Berkshire Hathaway had a very large cash reserve ready for a downturn. They would cash out of a hot market, move reserves into a stable investment instrument such as cash or the short term money market and buy back in during a downturn.

A feature of Charlie’s perceptive outlook was the way he lived his personal life. Both Warren and Charlie were pretty frugal, they did not get caught up in excessive consumerism, Warren was famous for residing in Omaha, Nebraska, whilst Charlie lived Pasadena, California for much of his working life before returning home to Omaha. The line from the interview that caught my attention was “The three ways a smart person can go broke are liqueur, ladies and leverage.” Ok, so Charlie was a family man and was not known for his indulgence, at least I can stay away from leverage.

The Known Knowns

Whilst I dislike the idiosyncrasy of US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld for his championing of the Iraq war, he did come up with some brilliant lines. Rumsfeld served firstly in the Ford Administration from 1975 to 1977, and then the Bush Administration from 2001 to 2006. Earning the title of both the youngest and oldest Secretary of Defense, he had a long career.

One of the Rumsfeldisms I would not like to be associated with is the Known/Knows descriptions. Whilst this description made Rumsfeld a laughing stock, it actually makes a lot of sense. I have problems remembering the full description off the top of my mead, now I carry a description in my notepad on my phone. It should be simple, it is either knowns or unknowns, it is just the order of the words that change.

The four states according to Rumsfeld are:
Known/Knowns – these are facts we are aware of.
Known/Unknowns – these are gaps in knowledge that we recognise, such as risks we are likely to anticipate
Unknown/Unknowns – These are threats or risks that are impossible to predict.
Unknown/Knowns – these are things we consciously or unconsciously overlook, a concept typically highlighted by critics.

This framework used by Rumsfeld is a psychology technique known as the Johari window emphasising intellectual humility in decision-making and was later used to describe the Rumsfeld Matrix. When Donald Rumsfeld returned to the private sector, he lectured for a short while at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, so he has a grounding in academic theory.

Ballicasag barracuda

Some of my favourite dives in the Philippines are found at Balicasag Island, a short banca ride from Alona Beach on Panglao Island. I have friends who live there so I am able to follow their dive exploits on social media, Balicasag Island still rates as one of the Philippines best dive sites.

Naturally, due to the popularity of the area, the changes have been immense, the beach is now fairly developed. While my last trip to Balicasag Island failed to yield any barracuda sightings, the jacks were still schooling on the vertical wall so I was happy with that – I will be back for sure.

The Black Bay 41 Heritage 79540

I was looking through Tudor Black Bay graphics online, I had not reviewed the Tudor range much after a couple of lacklustre inspections at the Tudor boutique. The Black Bay 41 Heritage Reference 79540 was a standout for me aesthetics wise, so it was worth a look. I like the dial, I never liked the Tudor bracelet, it just never felt right for me.

Generally I do not like Tudor dials; however, I really like the no date and limited text with Tudor name and logo and Genève writing. This offers a very clear dial, the round markers between the major index markers. This is a clean dial from Tudor, the hour dots and major numeral index markers works. I have never been a fan of the snowflake hour hand, Tudor fans love it and I believe it makes the brand distinguishable. 

Powered by an ETA 2824-2 with 25 jewels and a 38 power reserve, this is a solid powerplant. I was a little surprised as I was aware that ETA was withholding movement sales to non-Swatch Group brands. I was not aware if a grandfather clause existed, I am aware that Tudor began to transition to in-house movements from 2015 onwards. So as Tudor began to ramp up production on in-house movements, I expect future versions will be offering in-house movements to further position themselves in a very tight price range.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner special envoy status

Donald Trump’s special envoys to Ukraine are Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, it is not difficult to see why negotiations have stalled. Russia is seeking terms and concessions that they have not achieved on the battlefield and Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on behalf of Trump are willing to concede Ukrainian territory in what they view as a real estate deal. This is not good enough, this is pandering to Russian demands.

But who are Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner? Steve Witkoff is one of Donald Trump’s golf friends, he is a New York real estate developer and became personal friends with Trump through their golf affiliations. Witkoff, a corporate lawyer, began a relationship with Trump through his bankruptcy period. They became friends at a New York deli where Donald Trump, with no cash, had Steve Witkoff buy him a sandwich.

Jared Kushner is even more interesting, he is the son-in-law of Donald Trump, married to Ivanka Trump, this is nepotism at the highest level. His father, a disgraced financier was convicted of 18 counts including financial fraud and witness tampering was sentenced to 2 years imprisonment. The witness tampering charge was connected to hiring a prostitute to seduce his brother-in-law who was cooperating with federal prosecutors against Witkoff, he taped the arranged encounter and sent a copy of that tape to his sister. He was pardoned by none other than Donald Trump himself in his first term, so you can see why Russian negotiators love coming up against this pair.

Neither are career diplomats, this is a straight out case of cronyism and nepotism. Needless to say, both Witkoff and Kushner are getting rings run around them, and that is pretty embarrassing. This pair is getting played, the professional negotiating teams cannot believe their good fortune, they get to come up with a pair of inept guys and then employ advanced negotiating techniques against beginners. We see the Trump negotiating style, he makes big demands [anchoring], then creates external and public pressure for leverage including personal attacks, then caves when pressure is applied, he seeks immediate results in a zero sum claim instead of long term consensus. If this wasn’t so serious, it would be laughable.

Greta Thunberg returns to Gaza

So outspoken activist Greta Thunberg boarded another vessel bound for Gaza in what many claimed as another selfie cruise. The humiliation she brought on herself on her first attempt was not enough, she decided on another political campaign with minimal supplies onboard. This will really do nothing for Gaza inhabitants, whilst she does bring a certain level of media attention, she offers little else.

Yet, here I am wanting supplies to be delivered to Gazans, there has to be a better way to flush Hamas out of Gazan tunnels though. I am horrified at the images we see of Palestinians suffering in Gaza. What Hamas has brought to Palestinians is beyond rational, the Hamas hatred of Jews has done nothing for the Palestinian cause. Instead, this hatred has brought nothing but pain and destruction to Gaza, what have they gained out of this? To some degree, they have allowed this to happen to themselves, I am aware once Hamas is embedded in Gaza, they are difficult to eradicate. But it needs to happen, in the long-term, this can only benefit the people of Gaza.