The Russian attack on Kyiv saw the historic 17th-century Kyiv Pechersk Lavra damaged, the Russians are targeting not just military assets, they go after the population, they hit schools, they hit hospitals, they hit personal residences. When Russia is losing momentum on the battlefield, they launch attacks on the population of Ukraine with the intention of breaking national resolve, it is not working.

So in response, Ukraine launched a highly concentrated 500 long-range drones to attack the capital of Moscow. This was a multi-wave attack that lasted just ninety minutes. What it did was overwhelm the Russian air defence network, of the 500 drones launched, some were strike drones and some were decoy drones, so Russian forces were expending air defence resources trying to knock out decoys. The strategy worked as planned, sure Russia will take out some strike drones, but with overwhelming numbers, not all could be intercepted. Likewise, the decoy drones will make great reports in Russia, but they did exactly what was planned.

The Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya was the target, this was a spectacular success knocking out approximately 47% refining capacity. Not only was this a spectacular success in terms of capacity loss, the flying cover from the storage tank made watching it brilliant watching. Even better, the storage tank was not hit by a Ukrainian drone, but days later footage emerged when a man-launched surface-to-air missile missed the target and crashed into the storage tank lifting the lid for a spectacular video. The black rain in Moscow let the population know the war has shifted from Ukrainian soil to not only Russian territory, even in the capital of Moscow, watch out for drones and black rain.

When I first read about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi accepting Russian oil, I viewed this as an opportunistic economic abuse that is letting down fellow Quad members. But what if there is an actual cohesive strategy here? What if India is supported by western nations allowing Russian oil to flow at prices that do not allow Russia to prosper, what if Russia is just breaking even?

India is receiving cheap Russian oil to power its industry, this allows the Indian economy to grow and be competitive. I am not sure if this view is correct, so I believe some analysis is required before forming an opinion. Well, that was my thoughts before Donald Trump slammed India on the international stage, but you never know with Trump, he changes his mind so much, there is no strategy with him, it is just a daily thought bubble based on the last person he spoke to.

What we do know is India is receiving Russian oil at a pretty good price. What if these Indian oil purchases are placing downward pressure on Russian oil prices? What if they are taking Russian supply and denying other nations gaining Russian oil at better prices? Now, this concept is worth considering even if it is a fanciful proposition. Without being seen as a conspiracy theorist, I like to look at a number of plausible options before forming an opinion. If better information becomes available, I will change my views based on the information presented. Naturally, Modi could just be having a crack in an opportunistic manner, this is the simplest explanation after all.

I will begin this post by stating that I have never been a fan of Pauline Hanson, and I am not a supporter of her political party One Nation. I do not endorse her popularist views and I do not particularly like how she presents herself. That being said, what I am witnessing is the personal rise of Pauline Hanson and the endorsement of the One Nation political party as a serious contender.

What I find particularly interesting is the success of the Fire the Liar advertising campaign. Pauline has raised around $4 million in political donations to run this advertising campaign against Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Not that long ago, I believed the Liberal and National Opposition in Australia was done and dusted. The Albanese Government has a dominant position, the Liberal Party is now a hollowed out shell of a political party.

In this regard, all respect to Pauline, the failed far right-wing policies leading into the 2025 election of Peter Dutton destroyed the Liberal Party trying to emulate right-wing MAGA policies. Pauline Hanson saw the destruction yet forged ahead with her pseudo-MAGA agenda and not only gained traction, she has doubled support of her One Nation party as compared to the Liberal Party and rivals the entrenched Albanese Labor Party one year after their dominant election victory.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves too much so far out from an election, traditionally One Nation has imploded, so one would expect some scandals based on previous recruiting of members. Former National Party Leader and now defectee Barnaby Joyce made a fool of himself on national television where he was unable to explain One Nation policy. Are they really going to kick foreign nationals out of the country and engage in forced property sales? One hopes not, but positions change very quickly when power is achieved.

I just hope Barnaby was purely having a brain fade here, a bad day of sorts. Fortunately, he was forced to retract this statement after party clarification. There are plenty of opportunities for further mistakes, this polling showing Pauline Hanson as preferred Prime Minister may collapse before the next election. Ask Peter Dutton, he can explain to Pauline how fast an opinion poll lead can evaporate. With Australia’s richest woman Gina Rhinehart funding One Nation, this could quickly turn into a billionaire enhancing policy party just like Trump is pushing.

So the issue of collusion has come up, so the first action on my behalf is to determine what exactly collusion is. I cannot provide any context here, that would likely get me in trouble, so I have to explain in general terms only where the concept is related to workplace investigations.

Collusion is typically an agreement between two or more parties with the goal to deceive or cheat, this is usually a secret agreement between parties. My job was to prove intent within the scope of the balance of probabilities that the involved parties acted deliberately with the intent to deceive. For me, I have to determine the balance of probabilities as a legal standard of proof was breached.

The balance of probabilities is used in civil cases where a fact is considered proven if it’s more likely than not that it occurred. That is exceeding a 50% probability that the act actually occurred. In workplace investigations, collusion may occur when covering up misconduct or fraud, and therefore is intentional. This could include witnesses intentionally coordinating stories tainting evidence. This could also be unintentional, work colleagues tend to discuss work issues, this is not uncommon and may not be collusion, I believe intent is the issue here.

China, through their state media, is presenting itself as a stable and reliable alternative to the chaos and instability of the Trump administration. President Xi is presenting as a leader to developing nations to form an alternative bloc to rich western nations.

The mature economies of Western Europe had lower growth rates of developing nations, this is accepted. A developing nation experiences rapid growth as the economy modernises, there is investment in factories and infrastructure, people are lifted out of poverty, and the economy industrialises. China is looking to partner with developing nations through the Belt and Road Initiative in West Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. I have to be pretty respectful to President Xi, he has a strategy and he is executing the stability brilliantly.

What China is offering to developing nations is a stable and reliable partner, Xi is playing the long game in typical Chinese style. What has Trump done, slapped tariffs on partners, threatened to invade Greenland, pull out of NATO, troop withdrawals from Germany, insulting Emanuel Macron’s wife, abusing Spain, then turned on Italy, claims NATO took the easy route in Afghanistan, the verbal stoush with United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the issues with Canada and Mark Carney, and then there is Mexico. The chaos of the Trump Administration will damage the United States in the long-term, the short-term damage is already apparent so this is no stretch.

I am pretty alarmed from what I am seeing coming out of the Trump Administration in regards to Iran. I, like many others are no fan of the regime oppressing the Iranian people; however, after seeing what the Trump Administration is trying to do certainly gives them some legitimacy.

Nobody wants Iran to have nuclear weapons, they have been a state sponsor of terrorism for so long, I am beginning to forget how involved Iran is sponsoring terrorism in the region. Iran is an agressive nation in a very volitile region, the Middle East is in another arms race, they have to possess a military capable of protecting against attack and/or invasion.

So when Iran recently attacked the Kuwait airport, I see exactly what their strategy is. Iran cannot take the United States on militarily, they know the United States has bases in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. So instead, Iran attacks the infrastructure of the countries supporting United States military assets. These gulf nations are under immense financial pressure, their oil exports are threatened and they are losin foreign revenue.

So, a pretty decent survival strategy is to wage war against the countries who are aiding the United States in the region. They want the gulf states to apply pressure to the Trump Administration who have treated these countries as mugs. These are the countries bearing the brunt of the US/Israel war on Iran. The missteps from the Trump Administration are becoming embarrasing, it is not unreasonable to see Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Every military planning scenario forsaw such an event, the attacks on neighbors supporting US military assets, every planner saw the risks.

Instead, Donald Trump was emboldened by the lightning raid on Venezuela resulting in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and instaling a pro-US regime. He thought the military could pull off a similar raid on Iran, this was never going to be the case in the same time frame. What we have learnt from Iran is their ability to absorb abuse, take action and force an attacking force to take major losses. We do not have to look too far back in history to the Iran/Iraq war to see how much punishment Iran is willing to endure to ensure victory. 

I love visiting Little India when I am in Singapore, for me, this is my favourite area to visit. It has been a while and I have noticed the changes. I am getting the feeling this is based on the post-covid period, it looks like the smaller restaurants as I recall went out of business. 

I am sitting on the steps of the Indian Heritage Centre in Campbell Lane tapping away with a single finger on the keyboard of my Samsung A35 phone. There are some school groups with Chinese/Singaporean kids on a field trip learning about Indian influences in the area. I found it interesting to sit there and watch everyone walk past me whilst I am just watching. 

I was listening to their teacher explain some of the history of the area. As I am viewing the kids, I see they are engaged in their learning, they have their little booklets in their hands with just graphics with their teacher elaborating on the content. This looks like it is a pretty good learning strategy, the kids are engaged and having fun.

The Citizen Watch Company is one of the largest watch companies in the world, this prominant Japanese company is well positioned in the affordable watch market. The Citizen Watch Company produces some excellent timepieces, they are growing in respect in watchmaking circles and recognised by consumers as stylish and functional. 

Whilst I see the integrated bracelet design as synonymous with 1970s styling, I view the brightly coloured Tsuyosa collection as a cost effective alternative for the Rolex Oyster Perpetual. The brightly coloured dials with hourly index markers and the double index marker at 12 and six o’clock has that Oyster Perpetual design vibe about it. Sure, the Oyster Perpetual has the Rolex crown at the 12 o’clock marker, and double index markers at the 3 o’clock and 9 o’clock positions. We have now seen Rolex release an integrated bracelet watch with a new movement and display caseback. The presidential style bracelet is lifted straight from the Rolex DayDate, the half round links do not pinch hairs on your arm. 

The blue and black dials are of little interest to me, these are pretty much standard fare in watchmaking circles. The light blue, green, and yellow dials really pop, these versions make the Tsuyosa really stand out on the wrist. For me, the yellow dial is a great summer watch worn with casual attire. I do not think hiding the bright dials under a jacket during autumn and winter does this dial justice. The integrated bracelet style is very much back in vogue and Citizen offers an excellent low cost option in a pseudo-contemporary style. What Citizen watches lack in originality in design, they make up for with an interesting aesthetic and price to quality advantage.

The Cocos Keeling Islands are an important defence asset for Australia’s strategic deterrence, positioned in the Indian Ocean, these islands provide a very important forward operating base for Australia and potentially our allies. Unlike Diego Garcia, Australia owns the islands outright, so there is no issue of having to hand the islands back. However, there is an indigenous population that needs to be considered.

With the British set to hand back Diago Garcia to Mauritius and then lease the islands back, there could be future issues with this base in the future. This Indian Ocean asset requires significant investment and construction, the base could potentially house radar infrastructure, missile defences, and fighter jets. Currently reconnaissance aircraft utilise the airstrip, there are issues where the runways and taxiways require strengthening and lengthening. Unlike Diego Garcia, I do not see B-52 strategic bombers stationed there. The Diego Garcia B-52 strategic bombers can be relocated to RAAF Tindal in the Northern Territory, they do not need to be sent back to the United States.

If Australia was to jointly operate the base with AUKUS partners the United Kingdom and the United States, then this could potentially replace some of the functions of Diego Garcia. I would not expect B-52 bombers operating from that airstrip, the airstrip is scheduled to be upgraded to handle P-8C Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft. Previously P-3 Orion aircraft could only operate from the airstrip, this was somewhat limiting. Fighter jets are unlikely to be stationed at the Cocos Keeling Islands right now to protect the western approaches to Western Australia and the significant infrastructure in the region, but remain an option with in-air refuelling capabilities.

The Royal Australian Navy also uses the base for some limited operations, the primary operator is the Royal Australian Air Force. There are approximately 600 residents on the island, people can also travel to the island for holidays, scuba diving and fishing is pretty good too. The fishing would be pretty decent as well, I have seen some dive and fishing tours advertised, demand is minimal right now. Visitors are capped at 144 people at any one time, there is not much tourism infrastructure or demand and I don’t know who is making tourism investment.

With an army presence, forward operating radar systems could track shipping through the important bottlenecks of the Straits of Malacca, Lombok Straight, and Suunda Straight. This would squeeze potential adversaries such as China from these important shipping routes. Anti-access area denial would be an important strategic outcome creating a blockade of Chinese shipping. With significant missile defences on the islands including anti-shipping, anti-aircraft, and long-range strike capabilities, the Cocos Keeling Islands have the potential to be a fortified island defence to rival Chinese offensive assets in the South China Sea.

So what is the difference between demanding respect and earning respect? Typically state government management hierarchy demands respect whilst undertaking every opportunity and avenue to undermine you. I have noted state government managers are poorly trained and racked by self-interest and destructive attitudes. We need to keep in mind, I have not specified what state government in what country I have based my opinion on.

The other option would be to engage in servant leadership that includes putting team members ahead of themselves, but we know they do not have those abilities. Instead of witnessing self-serving and self-indulgent behaviours leading to self-enrichment, we can actually see teamwork in action. That is the management creating structures to reward competency and work ethic, this is not a typical state government strategy.

Then I look at the servant leadership style of Haruka Nishimatsu, the former CEO of Japan Airlines. Nishimatsu was famous for his forsaking CEO perks by taking the bus to work, dining in the company cafeteria alongside employees, and even took a pay cut in hard times. Haruka Nishimatsu was well respected by staff, earning their admiration fostering a sense of commitment and unity. Nishimatsu was guided by humility and selflessness reducing the divide between management and staff, Nishimatsu cut down and buried the us v them attitude.