Zelensky gives permission for the Russian victory day parade to go ahead

Russia was desperate for a ceasefire for their May 9 Parade to go ahead without the prospect of a Ukrainian missile or drone strike. So Vladimir Putin requested a ceasefire with Volodymyr Zelensky offering Vladimir Putin permission to hold their May 9 parade without disruption. This was a fantastic trolling, Zelensky granted permission for Russia to parade around Red Square.

There were no tanks rolling through Red Square, the military parade is all about weapons, there were no truck mounted missiles either, this is projecting Russian power. Russian anti-drone units were stationed just outside Red Square; they were still concerned. Even more ironic, Ukraine war veterans are marching in the parade, the Ukraine war has lasted longer than the Soviet involvement in World War II. The laughs keep coming, Ukrainians make up 25% of the Soviet force, they fought with distinction.

What Zelensky did was brilliant, he gave an assurance that Ukrainian Commanders would not target Red Square on May 9 after numerous requests and negotiations from the Americans, Zelensky decree he would allow the parade to go ahead. Even funnier, he then gave the coordinates for Red Square in the letter. Putin has increased security, he is concerned, he is coming across as a paranoid dictator who is losing control. The Russian people are seeing all this play out, the hits on Russian oil infrastructure are taking its toll, the smoke and the black rain are getting sighted.

The Hydroconquest L3.788.4.98.6

The new Longines Hydroconquest reference L3.788.4.98.6 is a nice looking upgrade for the Hydroconquest line. The HydroConquest was introduced in 2007, had an upgrade from the aluminium bezel insert to a ceramic bezel insert to a full case and dial upgrade. I was looking to purchase a HydroConquest, but I thought the aluminium insert would soon be superseded, so I was right. The second generation was a GMT movement, this is now the third generation and I reckon it will be a hit.

I wandered into Mazzucchelli’s Jewellers in Karrinyup, they have a good range of RADO, Longines, and Tissot, just to name a few brands. They also had TAG Heuer, but lost the range in that store when TAG Heuer opened their second boutique at Karrinyup Shopping Centre. It is still available in the stores not competing against the TAG Heuer boutiques. So I had a look at the older versions and planned my trip in my mind to the Longines boutique in the city for the next day.

As this was a new reference, Mazzucchelli’s Jewellers did not have any inventory, they were waiting for a shipment to arrive. Naturally, the Longines is going to get their shipment first, they want to be first to the Perth market as they are direct competitors. Mazzucchelli’s Jewellers had the older version with the Arabic numerals at the 3, o’clock, 6 o’clock and 9 o’clock positions for me to have a look at, the updated reference, if I recall correctly, was introduced in 2022 and I tried that on too back then.

As a dive watch rated to 300 metres it has a screw-down case-back, a screw-down crown, and integrated crown guard as one would expect. Naturally, the sapphire crystal prevents scratches and damage to the crystal, the ceramic bezel insert prevents scratches and has a really good wrist presence. The first generation used the Conquest case and had the externally mounted crown guards, that was an acquired taste, but I was ok with it.

The H-link bracelet is tapered, the older versions used a straight bracelet with a twin lock clasp. I liked the micro-adjustment, that was pretty neat, that is the first of these I have come across and I immediately loved it. There is a 42 mm and 39 mm case version, for me the 42 is perfect as I have an 8 inch wrist, the 39 mm version is perfect for most wrists. There is also a Milanese bracelet version that I am sure will be popular, but won’t work for me.

The frosted blue dial of the reference L3.788.4.98.6 uses wide index markers, with dot markers, at the 6 o’clock and 9 o’clock positions, the 3 o’clock is substituted with the date window. I can’t say I am a fan of the two dot markers, they should have kept geometric markers throughout. The 12 o’clock marker is an archetypal triangle, the hour hand is a snowflake type, the minute hand is straight, and the second hand is a lollypop type.

Despite the three different types, the design works. I do not like excessive writing on the dial, it is cluttered and messy, the HydroConquest is pretty clean here, just enough to identify Longines, even the hourglass logo is subdued.

The automatic movement is based on, some would argue evolved from the ETA 2892-A2 that has been internally upgraded, the Longines L888.5, a silicon balance spring enhancing anti-magnetic capabilities with a 72 hour power reserve. Beating at 25,200 vph [3.5 Hz]. The movement has 21 jewels, I cannot see the finish on the movement as the solid case-back is is laser etched globe with winged hourglass logo.

Leadership within context

The development of leadership skills are learned in a range of contexts as leadership is influence although not necessarily learned at home. Confidence is important, you don’t necessarily need to be an extrovert but you need the ability to address both small and medium sized groups of people. For some, addressing groups of people are the difference between becoming a leader, an introvert v extravert dilemna.

Much energy has been expelled on studying leadership traits and while values and beliefs are important, I believed these are learned attributes. I’m not convinced that the results from early trait leadership studies are the answer. I am a believer in behavioral leadership contexts, the theory considers observable actions between leader and team members. Placing leadership in context; the skills of initiative, critical thinking, motivation, active listening, delegation, conflict management, communication and exhibiting role model behaviour all form leadership skill-sets.

Sitting at Dolphin Quay

I was sitting in Archies on the waterfront at Mandurah’s Dolphin Quay having a kolsch beer. On the tv was an old Ashes test match that they were showing. I was trying to mentally work out when the match was being played. I find it interesting that Fox Sports was playing old games, I would be a little annoyed if I was paying for this service and got served up old test matches.

Stuart McGill was getting some wickets, Glen McGrath was sending down some pace, but I could not really concentrate on the match as I was chatting with my mate who is a head chef a little further down the boardwalk. I am a big fan of Stuart McGill, he was a great bowler mostly kept out of the team by Shane Warne. So this gave me some time frames to work with, I don’t believe McGill and Warne played that many test matches together, that is why I am guessing this match replay was mid-2000s.

I am no fan of Warne, he was described as a larrikin, more of a yobbo to me. From what I observed, Stuart had better figures for the limited matches he played, he was viewed as a bit of a strange guy, as opposed to Warne who was very popular with teammates and the public. When they played together in the team, I knew McGill had not only more wickets than Warne, I was aware he had a better bowling average too.

When they showed the Australian second innings, Michael Slater came in with Mark Taylor and was out for two, Justin Langer came in at number three and was out for one run. The sponsor was Ansett, so I know at least the base dates here. Justin Langer was eventually dropped from the team during an Ashes campaign in England as number three before reinventing himself as an opener with Mathew Hayden. Mark Waugh was next in before Fox Sports flipped over to a rugby match, I am not a follower of NRL, so my interest waned and I was off.

Getting to the end of the 60 days limit

I cannot believe the power of the United States President, a US President can initiate military action without the express authorisation of the Congress. However, the President must inform Congress within 48 hours once the military action has started.

So US President Trump, the guy who campaigned on no new wars initiated a second military conflict with Iran after the relative success of Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. When I say relative success, the operation was well planned and executed as one would expect with the US Air Force. However, the bunker bombing clearly did not obliterate the Iranian nuclear program as Donald Trump claimed, as the US needed to go into Iran again in January 2026 for Operation Epic Fury as Trump claimed Iran was weeks away from launching an attack on the United States.

So now we have Operation Epic Fury started on February 28, the military action hit the Iranian regime pretty hard, the US expended a large inventory of precision weapons. Based on the 1973 War Powers Act, the US President has 60 days to initiate military action before Congressional approval is required. If Congressional approval is declined, the President has a further 30 day withdrawal period. President Trump expected a swift capitulation of the Iranian regime, especially after the loss of leadership. Instead, it appears to have hardened the stance has allowed the new leadership has dug in.

So how did we get here? Well, Donald Trump was full of positivity after the lightning raid on Venezuela and the capture, or kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu successfully convinced Trump to engage in a surprise attack on Iran where they took out the Iranian leadership in a precision bombing action. The US and Israeli precision bombing, with the exception of the girl’s school, has been a military success. The war with Iran, it is a war, has been a military success and a strategic failure.

Well, that was until Iran decided to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian Navy is gone, yes they have small fast boats, but all their ships are gone. So how did the Iranian regime close the Strait of Hormuz? Well, we all know there is a bottleneck between Iran and Oman, there are narrow lanes, plus a buffer zone for the large oil tankers to transit. The Iranian military is not directly attacking ships in the gulf, instead the threat of action has spooked insurers who have clearly acted with extreme caution.

The Iran’s Revolutionary Guard [IRGC] has threatened to attack any ship trying to navigate the strait without permission. Therefore, the major shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CMG have suspended transit through the strait over genuine concerns for their ships and crew. The threat to mine the strait right at the chokepoint has pretty much stopped the transit of vessels. The Iranian regime opened the strait allowing transit to be rerouted past the island of Larak, that is close to the Iranian shore allowing Iranian forces to have a real close look at any vessel trying to transit the region. So what happens at the 60 day requirement, I reckon the Trump Administration will just ignore the requirement, congress is unlikely to hold Trump accountable and the Republican Party certainly will not do anything.

The April sun in autumn

It was a beautiful autumn day, I had to reach for my jacket in the morning as the temperature was in the single digits. It was mid 20s by lunchtime so we decided to sit out in the gardens instead of standing at the tasting area. Hanging at the Ugly Duckling Wines for a late breakfast and wine tasting is a pretty good use of a Sunday I would have thought.

At lunch time, the crowds were minimal, there were a few bus arrivals but at this stage the numbers were low. I have been to Ugly Duckling Wines before on West Swan Road, I was not in the mood for a big meal, so the cheese board was a pretty good option. I had this before so I knew what we were getting. What I love about Ugly Duckling Wines is sitting in the grassed area, it is a fun and casual location, there is an old seeder in the middle of the ground as a showpiece and a newer Fiat tractor and trailer parked in the yard. I couldn’t believe it, we didn’t even bother tasting any wines this time, we were happy just sitting in the sun. The tasting area offers a photographer plenty of light and subject matter, what a mistake to not utilise on this fantastic autumn day.

I like driving around the Swan Valley looking for the old agricultural implements to photograph. We had already been up to the road train assembly area to see if there were any trailers being hitched, but we were a little disappointed, this ANZAC day long weekend just had trailers parked in the yard. In the future, I will drive around the back streets looking for old farmhouses and chalets, even old sheds make some great photography subjects as well as Swan Valley landscapes. We had good light and plenty of inspiration, all I needed was the right inspiration and ideas.

Raining black oil in Tuapse

The Ukrainian drone attacks on the oil refinery in Tuapse on the Black Sea coast is around three quarters of the distance between Sevastopol and Sochi. So this is pretty impressive, Ukraine is innovating and gaining momentum. As Crimea is still occupied by Russian forces, this makes this oil refinery attack even more galling for the Russians. Ukraine has really turned a defensive strategy into actions damaging the Russian economy, they are not only losing soldiers on the frontlines, ordinary Russians are feeling the pain too.

Why? Well the war against Ukraine is supposed to be making the lives of Ukrainians unbearable, at home, well back from the front lines, Russians are supposed to feel safe and be unaffected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Instead, Ukrainian forces are now offensive and targeting assets deep inside Russian territory well away from the frontlines. The arrogance of Russians is laughable, they thought they would be destroying Ukraine [that is true] but now they are learning with the implementation of indigenous Ukrainian missile systems, whilst Western weapons were prohibited being used internally in Russia, now that Ukraine has developed their own missiles, they no longer have such targeting limitations.

For the Russian citizens in Tuapse, the black rain falling from the sky and polluting their city and lives are forcing them to rethink their support of the Russian/Ukrainian war. Their lives, their health, and their future is at stake here. Not only is Ukraine targeting income producing assets, this is directly affecting their morale. Naturally, the eco-disaster of their city and surrounding areas is dramatic, the fire has been burning uncontrolled for days causing mass pollution that will take a very long time to clear up. Maybe they should have thought about the consequences of their actions before supporting Putin.

The arrest of Ben Roberts-Smith

So it finally happened, former Australian soldier and special forces fighter Ben Roberts-Smith has been arrested. The high profile arrest of former Special Air Service Regiment [SASR] at the domestic terminal of Sydney Airport was very much a media affair. Ben Roberts-Smith has previously told prosecutors he would voluntarily present at a police station to be arrested, instead he was dragged off a flight in what was a public and staged arrest.

Firstly, I make no such assumptions of guilt or innocence, what Ben Roberts-Smith must be afforded is the presumption of innocence until proven otherwise. What I disagree with is the staged arrest of Ben Roberts-Smith as this further damages his reputation and possibly prejustices the trail. What we do know is the SASR was on increased operational tempo, the troopers were on back-to-back tours and under increased strain. I am not making excuses for any alleged unlawful conduct; however, these are criteria that must be factored into decisions. There has been much speculation that no commanding officers are facing charges, only troopers.

I have no idea if Ben Roberts-Smith is guilty or innocent, I certainly will not be speculating on this important issue. I can state facts though, Ben Roberts-Smith took Channel Nine to court for defamation, predominantly financed by Seven West Media owner Kerry Stokes. The civil matter based on the lower balance of probabilities criteria found that Ben Roberts-Smith was likely guilty of that criteria. I thought this was a terrible decision by his team, he exposed his case to scrutiny, this will likely be used in the criminal trial. This was basically a free look at what his defence would look like, a chance to take a look at defence witnesses.

I will be following the trial with much interest, this will be a highly visible trial and there will be many facets. What I noticed is the prosecutor has already explained the complexity of the case, there are no bodies, no blood splatter patterns, no shell casings, no cause of death and other forensic indicators. This occurred in another country, interviewing witnesses will be difficult, the time frame involved, these claims go back to the six tours from 2006 to 2012 with the war crimes alleged to have occurred between 2009 to 2012.

To meet the criminal standard of beyond a reasonable doubt will be difficult, I will be watching the trial closely. What I do know is these troopers were not only trained to kill, they were authorised to kill combatants by the Australian government. What is to be proved by war crimes prosecutors is if Ben Roberts-Smith went beyond the rules of engagement and unlawfully killed non- combatants or detained combatants that no longer posed a threat to Australian forces. Given the extended time frames involved and lack of evidence, I will be very interested to see if the allegations are proven to the criminal standard. One might ask, is the prosecution just going through a process they believe will likely fail to counter the claim they are taking this matter seriously?

The RAAF F4E Phantom

The Royal Australian Air Force leased and operated 24 F-4E Phantom aircraft from the United States Air Force in a ground attack role between the years of 1970 and 1973. This was about the time the federal government was withdrawing military forces engaged in the Vietnam war but the aircraft never served in the conflict. 

The F-4 Phantoms were leased from the United States Air Force only as an interim measure owing to continual delays in the delivery of 24 F-111C bomber aircraft. It could be argued the delays with the F-35 JSF bear many similarities to the F-111 with a further 24 F/A-18F Super Hornets purchased as a stop gap measure flying with 71 earlier F/A-18A/B aircraft purchased in the 1980s. Whilst the F-4s were considered well suited the Royal Australian Air Force, the federal government refused to agree with a Royal Australian Air Force proposal to retain the Phantoms after delivery of the F-111 aircraft in 1973 and the F-4s were returned to the USAF.

Lifestyle arbitrage

I had heard the term geographic arbitrage and didn’t really know what it was, so a little searching informed me that this is earning a high income in a high cost region compared to earning the same income and living in a low cost region. Whilst I wasn’t able to engage in geographic arbitrage during my working life, I will try this as a retiree.

When you engage in retirement arbitrage, you take your retirement in a lovely scenic place overseas to live a better quality of life. For Australians that is generally South East Asia with countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia. Of course developed countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea offer great opportunities but tend to be larger cities with higher costs.

For European heritage Australians whose families mostly emigrated to Australia in the 1950s, they typically consider returning to their native countries such as Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and the Slavic countries. Americans may look at Asia or Central America, but I typically do not hear of many Australians seriously looking at Central American countries.

I am looking for a country with warm weather in summer and reasonable facilities. For me, Portugal seems to offer plenty. I can spend my time in a scenic area with a great lifestyle and good summer weather. Likewise, Italy is also interesting if I stay out of the large tourist areas of Rome, Florence or Venice. Sure, if I can find a place in the countryside, the amazing Italian train network can get me most places. Even better, Italy has a reciprocal agreement with Australia for medical treatment. With a couple of years before I can retire early, I need to start planning.