I was reading an excerpt from a Charlie Munger interview taken before his death at age 99. For those unfamiliar with who Charlie Munger was, Charlie was the longstanding business partner of Berkshire Hathaway co-owner Warren Buffett.

During the interview Charlie illustrated his business acumen, his shrewdness and his risk averse outlook. Both Warren and Charlie reviewed the business cycle, they knew when a market was overheated and heading for a correction, they would be criticised for missing the easy money at the top of a boom when they would start converting assets to cash, Berkshire Hathaway had a very large cash reserve ready for a downturn. They would cash out of a hot market, move reserves into a stable investment instrument such as cash or the short term money market and buy back in during a downturn.

A feature of Charlie’s perceptive outlook was the way he lived his personal life. Both Warren and Charlie were pretty frugal, they did not get caught up in excessive consumerism, Warren was famous for residing in Omaha, Nebraska, whilst Charlie lived Pasadena, California for much of his working life before returning home to Omaha. The line from the interview that caught my attention was “The three ways a smart person can go broke are liqueur, ladies and leverage.” Ok, so Charlie was a family man and was not known for his indulgence, at least I can stay away from leverage.

Whilst I dislike the idiosyncrasy of US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld for his championing of the Iraq war, he did come up with some brilliant lines. Rumsfeld served firstly in the Ford Administration from 1975 to 1977, and then the Bush Administration from 2001 to 2006. Earning the title of both the youngest and oldest Secretary of Defense, he had a long career.

One of the Rumsfeldisms I would not like to be associated with is the Known/Knows descriptions. Whilst this description made Rumsfeld a laughing stock, it actually makes a lot of sense. I have problems remembering the full description off the top of my mead, now I carry a description in my notepad on my phone. It should be simple, it is either knowns or unknowns, it is just the order of the words that change.

The four states according to Rumsfeld are:
1. Known/Knowns – these are facts we are aware of.
2. Known/Unknowns – these are gaps in knowledge that we recognise, such as risks we are likely to anticipate
3. Unknown/Unknowns – These are threats or risks that are impossible to predict.
4. Unknown/Knowns – these are things we consciously or unconsciously overlook, a concept typically highlighted by critics.

This framework used by Rumsfeld is a psychology technique known as the Johari window emphasising intellectual humility in decision-making and was later used to describe the Rumsfeld Matrix. When Donald Rumsfeld returned to the private sector, he lectured for a short while at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, so he has a grounding in academic theory.

Some of my favourite dives in the Philippines are found at Balicasag Island, a short banca ride from Alona Beach on Panglao Island. I have friends who live there so I am able to follow their dive exploits on social media, Balicasag Island still rates as one of the Philippines best dive sites.

Naturally, due to the popularity of the area, the changes have been immense, the beach is now fairly developed. While my last trip to Balicasag Island failed to yield any barracuda sightings, the jacks were still schooling on the vertical wall so I was happy with that – I will be back for sure.

I was looking through Tudor Black Bay graphics online, I had not reviewed the Tudor range much after a couple of lacklustre inspections at the Tudor boutique. The Black Bay 41 Heritage Reference 79540 was a standout for me aesthetics wise, so it was worth a look. I like the dial, I never liked the Tudor bracelet, it just never felt right for me.

Generally I do not like Tudor dials; however, I really like the no date and limited text with Tudor name and logo and Genève writing. This offers a very clear dial, the round markers between the major index markers. This is a clean dial from Tudor, the hour dots and major numeral index markers works. I have never been a fan of the snowflake hour hand, Tudor fans love it and I believe it makes the brand distinguishable. 

Powered by an ETA 2824-2 with 25 jewels and a 38 power reserve, this is a solid powerplant. I was a little surprised as I was aware that ETA was withholding movement sales to non-Swatch Group brands. I was not aware if a grandfather clause existed, I am aware that Tudor began to transition to in-house movements from 2015 onwards. So as Tudor began to ramp up production on in-house movements, I expect future versions will be offering in-house movements to further position themselves in a very tight price range.

Donald Trump’s special envoys to Ukraine are Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, it is not difficult to see why negotiations have stalled. Russia is seeking terms and concessions that they have not achieved on the battlefield and Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on behalf of Trump are willing to concede Ukrainian territory in what they view as a real estate deal. This is not good enough, this is pandering to Russian demands.

But who are Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner? Steve Witkoff is one of Donald Trump’s golf friends, he is a New York real estate developer and became personal friends with Trump through their golf affiliations. Witkoff, a corporate lawyer, began a relationship with Trump through his bankruptcy period. They became friends at a New York deli where Donald Trump, with no cash, had Steve Witkoff buy him a sandwich.

Jared Kushner is even more interesting, he is the son-in-law of Donald Trump, married to Ivanka Trump, this is nepotism at the highest level. His father, a disgraced financier was convicted of 18 counts including financial fraud and witness tampering was sentenced to 2 years imprisonment. The witness tampering charge was connected to hiring a prostitute to seduce his brother-in-law who was cooperating with federal prosecutors against Witkoff, he taped the arranged encounter and sent a copy of that tape to his sister. He was pardoned by none other than Donald Trump himself in his first term, so you can see why Russian negotiators love coming up against this pair.

Neither are career diplomats, this is a straight out case of cronyism and nepotism. Needless to say, both Witkoff and Kushner are getting rings run around them, and that is pretty embarrassing. This pair is getting played, the professional negotiating teams cannot believe their good fortune, they get to come up with a pair of inept guys and then employ advanced negotiating techniques against beginners. We see the Trump negotiating style, he makes big demands [anchoring], then creates external and public pressure for leverage including personal attacks, then caves when pressure is applied, he seeks immediate results in a zero sum claim instead of long term consensus. If this wasn’t so serious, it would be laughable.

So outspoken activist Greta Thunberg boarded another vessel bound for Gaza in what many claimed as another selfie cruise. The humiliation she brought on herself on her first attempt was not enough, she decided on another political campaign with minimal supplies onboard. This will really do nothing for Gaza inhabitants, whilst she does bring a certain level of media attention, she offers little else.

Yet, here I am wanting supplies to be delivered to Gazans, there has to be a better way to flush Hamas out of Gazan tunnels though. I am horrified at the images we see of Palestinians suffering in Gaza. What Hamas has brought to Palestinians is beyond rational, the Hamas hatred of Jews has done nothing for the Palestinian cause. Instead, this hatred has brought nothing but pain and destruction to Gaza, what have they gained out of this? To some degree, they have allowed this to happen to themselves, I am aware once Hamas is embedded in Gaza, they are difficult to eradicate. But it needs to happen, in the long-term, this can only benefit the people of Gaza.

I now believe lawyers are engaged more for intimidation than actual negotiation prowess, this belief of presenting a small target is flawed. A better strategy is the big stick approach, if you want to threaten and intimidate, then you had better be prepared to be belted with a big stick. That is the defensive strategy the accused should be demonstrating, not the offensive strategy that is probably required.

So, naturally, the big stick approach works best when used for defence and not offense. It is a fairly simple strategy, if an individual or organisation believes they have the ability to attack you, then they need to take into account the consequences of the individual defence strategy they will likely encounter. Whilst not literally, in a figurative sense, they can and will be belted with a big stick. That causes organisational reputational damage if it is a workplace, that certainly needs to be taken into account.

Human resources, now renamed people and culture in many organisations is anything but people orientated and the culture of abuse and intimidation is prevalent. The role of human resources is to protect the organisation, it has nothing to do with enhancing learning and growth opportunities including protecting staff. I have learned that the real People and Culture function is to protect the management. It has absolutely nothing to do with the vast majority of staff members who actually work hard for the organisation.

I cannot claim to be the originator of this idea, the credit must go to Anne Applebaum, journalist and historian. Applebaum has written for The Spectator and The Economist, as well as The Atlantic magazine. Applebaum has a pretty decent resume from her roles on the Editorial Board of The Washington Post, and Senior Fellow at John Hopkins University. Regardless of her corporate success, a Pulitzer Prize always enhances credibility.

Whilst Vladimir Putin has made so many erroneous claims regarding his invasion of Ukraine in 2022 from CIA bioweapons laboratories the Donbas region, the Ukrainian NAZI lie, protecting Russian speakers in Donbas, demilitarisation, genocide in Donetsk and Luhansk, and of course NATO expansion. The Putin regime has been invading neighbours for an extended period, the international acceptance of the Crimean annexation gave him hope, Putin thought he could invade Ukraine and Western nations would be unable to act, and just have to accept this loss.

What Applebaum has claimed does have plenty of support, whilst I do not necessarily believe this is the primary reason, this certainly has merit. I believe Putin wants to restore the glory of the Soviet Empire that collapsed in 1991. Naturally, this was glory for Moscow and St Petersburg, not for the neighbouring countries all the way to Poland, Czechia, Hungary, and Slovenia. The people who lived under Soviet rule were not interested in a return to Russian domination and the erosion of their rights or hard earned economic stability.

NATO has expanded, and expanded East but not because NATO wants to encroach on Russian territory. But because Eastern European nations are threatened and require protection for their citizens, their democracies, and their way of life. They know they will lose all their rights again under an expanded Russian Empire that would rival the Soviet Union. Western Europe needs to increase their military capabilities again, they were lazy after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and should have immediately begun rebuilding their militaries in 2022.

What Applebaum is claiming is that Putin invaded Ukraine because they now have a thriving democracy and the idea could take off in Russia. She frames her argument as an existential conflict between the democratic and authoritarian worlds. In this regard, her idea certainly has merit, one only needs to look at Russian allies and partners including Belarus in Europe, China, and North Korea in Asia, Iran in the Middle East, and Venezuela in South America.

Applebaum claims the Ukrainian government falling would reinforce dictatorships globally. At a local level, Russians may start asking that if Ukraine can successfully transition to a free and prosperous democracy, then why can’t Russia? Putin sees free elections, the rule of law, and European integration as deeply dangerous to his regime, for that reason alone, Putin has reason to worry.

In the early days of the Ukrainian invasion, Russian death squads entered Kyiv searching for Zelensky seeking to execute Zelensky. For his part, Zelensky stayed in Kyiv and gave his personal credibility a huge boost, if Zelensky departed, the Ukrainian government may have fallen and Russia had their speedy invasion plans realised. Putin wanted to replace Zelensky with the wealthy leader of the pro-Russian party, Viktor Medvedchuk, who is accused of treason and now residing in Russia.

This is an interesting concept, media owners have bonded together to protest against the proposed media. This goes back a bit, when Scott Morrisson was still Prime Minister, the major Media outlets in Australia ran the open letter including The Australian, and The Sydney Morning Herald.

In the United States, we have Donald Trump and the fake news stupidity, any news organisation that holds his administration accountable and they are not only labeled as fake news, they are potentially locked out of press conferences. This is a feeble attempt to control the news cycle and manipulate the press. I think this is a disgrace, we need variety and multiple sources of news and I follow journalists I trust.

Investigative journalism is dying, there are still good options for quality investigative journalism in Australia from The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Four Corners, and The Australian. This was based on the arrests of Annika Smethurst, and the Australian Broadcasting Corporation [ABC] for articles related to The Afghan Files, and Australian government spying on Timor-Leste.

I write an opinion based blog that is researched and draws on references based on current events, business case studies and management perspectives. Sometimes you can rely upon industry best practice; however, some of the best case studies are based on management failures. The failure of values-based leadership, or any real leadership strategies at all.

The Public Sector Management Act 1994, under Section 8 – Human Resource Management Principles cites arbitrary and capricious actions under sub-section (c) stating employees are to be treated fairly and consistently and are not subjected to arbitrary or capricious acts. Well, that is all good if human resources and senior management are doing their job. In reality, human resources should be advising senior management of potential liability, organisational risk and the potential of reputational damage. That is basically taking a cautious approach, fair warning should be given. When human resources are driving this agenda, then you know human resources are the issue based on spite and reprisal.

So what is arbitrary and capricious action? Well, arbitrary is based on a decision made without reasonable justification, or proper consideration of relevant factors. This could include the termination of an employee based on an unsupported hunch, rather than based on evidence. This could include disregarding established policies. Capricious is a sudden or impulsive unmotivated change in attitude or behaviour. This tends to indicate, or suggest a decision made on a whim or out of spite that is not based on reasonable business logic. This is where a half decent industrial lawyer gets to work and holds the organisation accountable in a legal and moral sense.