I was interested to hear that the Philippines was described as ground zero for online disinformation. After all, the political situation in the Philippines is usually pretty dire, so it came as no surprise that political interference in the news was occurring. The Duturte government was tough on crime, or so they claimed, the Duterte government was involved in numerous extra judicial deaths and a lack of process that led to the deaths of numerous innocent people.

The Duterte government was pretty forward in meeting with social media companies to develop an election winning social media strategy. This was a highly effective strategy targeting the under-educated masses and bombarding them with disinformation programs that were shared between the highly connected population. Facebook was a leading distributor of misinformation, even assisting the Duturte government to set up programs to distribute government propaganda.

So now we have had a change of government after Duterte’s six year term is up, it was returned to the Marcos family ruling the Philippines. My attitude is you get what you vote for, the downfall of the previous Marcos regime saw Ferdinand and Imelda along with their children flee the country for exile in Hawaii taking their ill gotten fortune with them. This was really the development funds for the people of the Philippines, the country still lags the development of other Southeast Asian nations and it is my guess they will continue to under-perform whilst these regimes maintain power.

I received from my uncle my grandfather’s gold Omega Seamaster that had been stored in his safe since his death in 1982. I was under strict instructions not to sell this timepiece, but as an avid watch collector, there was no chance of that.

The gold Omega Seamaster Geneve was gifted to my grandfather in 1971 for his 25 years of service to Tubemakers of Australia. At the watchmakers, they popped the caseback off to inspect the automatic movement, it was a Calibre 565 with 25 jewels, an automatic movement. There was some moisture entering around the crown, it was well and truly dry now, the rotor was loose and contacting the case, there were some markings inside the case caused by the contact.

The case was 18k gold plated to a depth of 40 microns, I will have the case refurbished, a new hesalite crystal, new crown, and the case polished. The bracelet was in poor condition, this is a gold-plated link bracelet with an elastic retainer. When I learned this was not an original Omega bracelet, I had an opportunity to ditch it for a black leather strap. I like the black and gold strap/case contrast, this will now be my formal dress watch.

The caseback is inscribed with a reference to my grandfather’s 25 years service to the company. He worked there until 1978 where a hand injury caused by an over-zealous crane operator crushed his hand. He enjoyed his 5 years of retirement, but I feel he probably wanted to work on longer, he was an old style blue collar worker.

So, this vintage Seamaster is being refurbished to a new state. My grandfather, who was incidentally a watchmaker by trade, should be pretty happy with this. The story is the timepiece, it is not mine to sell, I am purely the current custodian of this family history. The reference 166.200 is a 1969 model, my job is to research the timepiece and relate it back to my grandfather. Naturally, I am pretty happy to receive a gold vintage Omega Seamaster, this will mostly stay in my safe but will come out for special occasions.

I have an enormous backlog of either half written posts or posts just sitting in the draft folder and forgotten about. This was one of these posts titled How will the end of QE affect us? Well, that time is well and truly over, instead of just dumping the post, I decided to revisit and rewrite the post from a number of years back to determine if QE has helped lead to worldwide inflation.

I correctly predicted QE would lead to inflationary forces, quantitative easing was a massive stimulus to add liquidity to financial markets by pouring money into economies. Firstly the US and then Europe then followed by China, Japan and finally Australia. We have a strong financial sector in Australia that is heavily regulated, this may lead to some inefficiencies in boom times but protects the major financial institutions during periods of instability.

This really began with the global financial crisis and has just expanded from there. Whilst technically Australia was not too badly affected by the 2008 US debt saga, the liquidity issues still caused issues for us, just not to the same extent as the US and Europe. The US subprime fiasco really burdened banks and financial institutions with highly risky debt instruments that with the benefit of hindsight was always going to implode.

So now what happens? The US along with most other advanced economies have wound up their stimulus packages. The Australian domestic stimulus package was easily dwarfed by what the Chinese undertook, we indirectly benefited from their growth. Likewise, we will likely suffer when their economy slows down, Chinese excess supply has been diverted to their Belt and Road program.

I have been writing about how quantitative easing for a while now. I have been looking at what central banks are doing in the United States, Europe, Asia and now Australia. We have suffered from low wage growth, this has been hampered by a lack of productivity growth and efficiency. This was then supercharged by the covid stimulus spending as economics worldwide shut down and non-essential workers were paid to stay home.

Yes, there is a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing zero covid policies of China, related supply chain issues, European energy issues caused by Russian gas rationing combined with the excessive covid stimulus packages. The whole world was caught up in a massive money printing exercise starting with QE. These increased financial inflows disrupted normal currency movements and created an enormous demand driven building bubble that drove up the price of commodities and labour. I reckon despite economist’s predictions, we will not be seeing the soft landing we were promised in 2023 and we could see a worldwide recession.

So, what did we learn from the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014? What we learnt was that Russia saw western nations as weak and divided. Sure, some countries made a few grandiose statements and that was about it – nothing to worry about. The Kremlin was basically given a green light to invade after the debacle of Crimea. This follows the western diplomatic messaging after the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Chechnya between 1999 to 2009.

Putin took control of Georgia, then Chechnya before sending in a contingent of special operations forces and Spetsnaz GRU to Crimea without insignia known as the little green men. Apparently they were very polite and made no attempts to integrate into daily Crimean life, they did not initially seem all that disruptive. What they did seize control of Crimea pretty much unopposed, then they turned their attention to the Donbas region supporting a Russian led separatist movement.

Between then, Russia had operations in Syria supporting President Assad and the destruction brought upon the Syrian people was despicable. The Russian policy of destruction to subdue a population by turning their cities into rubble will not work this time. Finally the international community has taken action to censure Moscow and applied harsh sanctions against this authoritarian regime.

The size of the country, the size of their military and the size of their economy does not correlate, they are not a superpower and may soon not qualify for membership of the G20. The best primary action against the Russian invasion of Ukraine is financial sanctions, NATO is not involved but closely monitors the situation militarily. NATO nations led by the US supply weapons to Ukraine allowing the country to defend itself, whilst still trailing Russia in overall terms of weapons and manpower, they are a far more effective military.

Vladimir Putin, the despot President of Russia has illusions of being viewed in history as a self styled Peter the Great. Fortunately, Putin is anything but a great conqueror, Vlad is a pathetic little despot that has taken Russia from a G20. Sure, Putin has a large military to draw upon, this is neither an efficient or effective military. Apart from strengthening NATO with Norway and Finland joining, NATO no longer fears the Russian military.

So, where does this leave Russia? Well, there are deaths and people maimed, a Russian soldier accessing their medical system would be concerning, at least a Ukrainian soldier has a chance of survival. I have seen photographs of Ukrainian soldiers wounded and killed in action, these are hard photographs to view, these are not great photographs. What the Russian soldiers have been recorded doing to Ukrainian civilians is disgusting, they actually deserve this treatment when they return.

Putin thought he could splinter Europe, he believed he could place NATO under pressure and the infighting would dissolve the NATO alliance. That did not happen, NATO expanded right up to his northern border, if Putin feared an invasion through the Russian southern European border, he now has to contend with NATO at the northern European border. Putin is not a leader of people, nor is he a master strategist and he has proved he lacks the military nous. What Putin has shown the world is he has set up an internal facing fascist dictator bubble with a military arranged to quell internal uprising.

What I had viewed in the Brittany Higgins sexual assault case was trial by media, this was a clear case of attempting to turn public opinion against Bruce Lehrmann and try to break him. From what I could determine, his legal team was well run, it was very tight, no loose comments and emotional outbursts. The Higgins legal team were very loose, her comments outside the court after the mistrial were emotional and ill conceived, her legal team should never have let that happen, now she is exposed.

From the outset, I saw this moving to a defamation hearing because if the prosecution was just relying on the facts of the case, I thought it may be tight as there was no immediate police report, no medical examination and no proof a sexual assault taking place. Bruce Lehrmann maintained his innocence claiming no sexual activity took place, Brittany Higgins claimed she woke up mid-rape, the prosecution had an uphill battle as there were no other witnesses.

Even before the mistrial, the jury was taking a long time to deliberate, the longer it took, the more chance he had. The mis-trial could have robbed him of a verdict, with charges now dropped, he will be forever viewed as the guy who got away with it on a technicality. Was Bruce Lehrmann a good guy? I do not know him, but I suspect not. Did he abuse his position, it appears that he did, but once again, this needs to be proved beyond a reasonable doubt, it appears the prosecution were unable to do this.

The role of the media in this case has been outrageous, no longer did the principle of innocence until proven guilty apply, Channel Ten and The Project will now face scrutiny. Their slogan of news delivered differently really applies here, Lisa Wilkinson, after already delaying the case could find herself personally liable, along with her husband Peter FitzSimonds, they may be making some financial donations to the Lehrmann legal team.

So with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine faltering, the Russian separatists in the east of non-NATO member Moldova on the Ukraine border may well be getting nervous right now. The Russian military was planning an assault on Odesa to join the whole eastern and southern Ukraine all the way to Moldova. This failed to occur, there was no doubt plans to take Odesa but the resistance was too high, this would have cut off the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea.

The elite Russian parachute brigade failed to take Kyiv, the special military operation to topple the Ukraine government failed. Instead, the 331st Guards Parachute Regiment were wiped out and really been inconsequential in this war, they were likely supported by the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade. The regiment’s commanding officer, Colonel Sergei Sukharev was killed in Ukraine. Putin wanted to topple the government, murder Zelensky and install a Belarus style government in Ukraine.

Moldova was once part of the Soviet Union, there are still regions in the east of the country where separatists are operating. The Transnistria region was held by Russian forces exerting influence over the region. If the whole of southern Ukraine fell, there was a concern Moldova was next, now that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of Kherson, the threat for Moldova is diminishing. The Russian losses are mounting, they have no more resources to throw into this region of the conflict.

The Air King Reference 116900 is an interesting timepiece for me, the 116900 uses a 40 mm Milgauss case, three link oystersteel bracelet with folding oysterclasp and a 5 mm extension. This isn’t a very popular design among Rolex enthusiasts, so it is somewhat unique.

I am doing some reading up on the situation in the South China Sea. I see the region flaring up at some point in the future. I see the US leading the conflict, whilst I expect Taiwan to be the point of conflict, a misjudgment from either side could easily trigger this conflict. This does not mean a conflict will occur, this is the offensive/defensive positioning in the geopolitical environment.

The Chinese anti-access and area denial strategy is of particular interest to me. To begin with, I was asking myself what is China doing by militarising the Spratly Islands between the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea. China has armed these islands with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, the Chinese have a sophisticated radar array to seek threats and targets.

So having never served in the military, I have to learn these terms so I can grasp this strategy. Anti-access is considered an offensive strategy utilising attack aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles and ships to strike targets. Anti-access is designed to prevent military movement in an area of operations, area denial prevents freedom of action under control of the military force. What China is seeking is an anti-access and area denial policy in the South China Sea.

So what China is attempting to do is create an area denial strategy in the wider Western Pacific to specifically deny the US Navy and more broadly the United States military access to the region. This is difficult with US bases in Japan, South Korea and access to the Philippines. Although Philippines military cooperation was difficult under the Duterte administration and looks just as difficult under the incoming Marcos government, there are still assets available.

With the disputed Spratly Islands very much a consideration, an area denial strategy is created through the heavily armed islands having runways, missile defence and missile offence systems along with an extensive radar array. The purpose is to deny access to the US Navy to the first island chain, and possibly pull back behind the second island chain.

The range of aircraft carriers is limited here, the fighter jets have a range of around 650 km. This is a concern as Chinese anti-ship missiles are increasing in range, this is now a threat to the fleet and whilst a carrier strike group has a range of ships and defensive capabilities, no one really wants to find out if a carrier can survive a direct hit from a Chinese anti-ship missile.

We are witnessing Ukraine humiliate Russia, we are watching history unfold in front of us. What we are defining as a Ukrainian victory is expelling Russia out of Ukraine including Crimea. Apart from the pro-Putin Russian trolls on social media and QAnon conspiracy theorists, the world is cheering the Ukrainian defiance of this illegal invasion of a sovereign nation.

Russia currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, there is still a lot that can go wrong for Ukraine though. What we are seeing is Russia now holds less territory than it did in the first two weeks of the invasion of Ukraine. As a nation, a determined Ukraine held on against the initial onslaught, defeated the Russian advance towards Kyiv before making some spectacular gains against an overwhelming invasion force that was poorly led.

Although Russia is mobilising further troops, they appear to be mostly ineffective as they are poorly trained, lacking discipline, badly equipped and lacking the leadership to take advantage of their numerical advantage. Ukraine is hampered by not being able to use western weapons to attack legitimate Rùssian military targets within their own borders.

That being said, the Ukrainians appear to have modified some old Soviet era drones to attack their air force on Russian air bases deep in their own territory. They effectively created a slow moving cruise missile with limited range, maneuverability and explosive force to once again damage Russian assets and prestige. This has made a laughing stock of Putin and his much vaunted S-300 and S-400 air defence missile system. They cannot even shoot down home made missiles and defend their aircraft sitting on the tarmac – funny stuff.