At time of writing, we do not know who launched the drone attacks deep inside Russia, they hit bombers sitting on the runway and fuel storage facilities. I think the general consensus is Ukraine was behind this daring raid, they are certainly resourceful.

What we do know is some old Soviet era drones have been modified with small warheads attached. They flew around 700 km past Russian S-300 and S-400 air defense missile batteries. Ukraine is shooting down the vast majority of Russian missiles and drones, still some got through and took out electricity and water infrastructure. The Russian air defenses are clearly lacking, the S-300 and S-400 air defense batteries failed jn a spectacular manner.

What Ukraine cannot do is attack non-military targets in Russia, this will have the effect of building support for Putin. This is the exact opposite of what they want, attacking military targets in Russian territory should make every Russian in the country nervous. As long as they target airfields and military targets, this can keep Russians on edge as they are legitimate targets.

US and NATO weapons have been supplied on the proviso that they are not used to attack Russia, this has been honoured by Ukrainian leadership. The Ukrainians are a resourceful bunch, they are innovative and they are fighting for their existence. They cannot live under Russian occupation, this will result in the murder of Ukrainian citizens, we have seen this already. The sanctions do not go far enough, Russia should be bankrupted, they need to do what they need to do to ensure Russia collapses.

The war in Ukraine is going poorly, even Putin fanboys are having a difficult time explaining these devastating losses on the battlefield. I see lots of African and middle eastern commentators espousing their views in social media comments sections. I like a diversity of views and like to question my own views of the world. These guys are not increasing my diversity, they are just tools.

The loss of Kherson is the single biggest defeat for Russia, at the time of writing, Kherson was still under Russian control , but it is looking all but lost for Russia. Now this is a big statement as Russia has suffered one humiliating loss after another. This was the major regional capital under Russian control, these wins for Russia in the early days of the war are being eroded, they cannot hold on to their gains, instead converting them into losses.

There have been concerns that this is a trap, the Russians are trying to lure Ukraine into an ambush in Kherson. I am trying to work out from the luxury of my lounge room what Ukraine needs to do to not play into a potential Russian trap? From what I can work out, the Ukrainian forces are progressing cautiously, there does not appear to be many thunder runs going on, from what I can determine from the reporters in the region, this is the muddy season and offensive moves are limited.

There is the likelihood that offensive maneuvers will resume in the spring, it looks like autumn is a period of consolidation. There will be long range artillery and missile exchanges during this period. What Ukraine has successfully done is disrupt the Russian supply lines, with the logistical nightmare Russian soldiers are facing, they do not have warm uniforms, socks, boots or sleeping bags.

The Russians are slowly being eroded as a fighting force, they are demoralised and they might not hold up under severe winter conditions. What we have previously seen from Ukraine is a relentless charge, they fight smart, yes, they take losses, but this is expected to a degree against such a numerically superior force. They did not have the weapons or the equipment, but now they are being supplied with western weapons, they have turned this conflict around. There are claims we will see a victory for Ukraine before the end of summer 2023, I hope these commentators are right.

I laugh every time I view Russian propaganda shows on the Russian television network, they fully support Puin. They do not think Russian aggression against Ukraine is wrong, they believe they have the right to invade and subjugate Ukraine. The video upload complaints by freshly mobilised Russian soldiers is mostly to do with equipment complaints and a lack of payment. They are entirely happy to kill, rape and torture Ukrainians for money.

They have realised they are losing, so instead of accepting they are an inferior military, they are trying to change the narrative that they are fighting all of NATO and the United States. They would not last long in a conventional war against NATO, despite being out equipped and lacking in manpower, they are being significantly beaten by a numerically inferior force. The Russian doctrine was frozen in the 1960s, the modernisation calls for it have already been tried, the logistics is insufficient, the corruption is rampant and the training is non-existent. It would be funny watching them lose and then bleat online if Ukrainian lives were not being lost in the process.

We are witnessing Ukraine humiliate Russia, we are watching history unfold in front of us. What we are defining as a Ukrainian victory is expelling Russia out of Ukraine including Crimea. Apart from the pro-Putin Russian trolls on social media and QAnon conspiracy theorists, the world is cheering the Ukrainian defiance of this illegal invasion of a sovereign nation.

Russia currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, there is still a lot that can go wrong for Ukraine though. What we are seeing is Russia now holds less territory than it did in the first two weeks of the invasion of Ukraine. As a nation, a determined Ukraine held on against the initial onslaught, defeated the Russian advance towards Kyiv before making some spectacular gains against an overwhelming invasion force that was poorly led.

Although Russia is mobilising further troops, they appear to be mostly ineffective as they are poorly trained, lacking discipline, badly equipped and lacking the leadership to take advantage of their numerical advantage. Ukraine is hampered by not being able to use western weapons to attack legitimate Russian military targets within their own borders.

That being said, the Ukrainians appear to have modified some old Soviet era drones to attack their air force on Russian air bases deep in their own territory. They effectively created a slow moving cruise missile with limited range, maneuverability and explosive force to once again damage Russian assets and prestige. This has made a laughing stock of Putin and his much vaunted S-300 and S-400 air defense missile system. They cannot even shoot down home made missiles and defend their aircraft sitting on the tarmac – funny stuff.

The TAG Heuer Autavia is an interesting timepiece for me, the reference WBE5116.EB0173 with the blue dial is what I would be interested in. The blue dial with Arabic numerals is interesting, the date window at the 6 o’clock keeps the diai symmetrical. The white border surrounding the date window offers depth, but I struggle to read the date on most occasions anyway so could do without the date window.

The Calibre 5 automatic movement is COSC certified, from the literature I cannot determine if this is an ETA 2824-2 or a Selitta SW 100-2. One way of telling is determining if a 25 jewel or 26 jewel is used, an ETA movement is 25 jewels, whilst the 26 jewel is the Sellita model. I would personally prefer a base ETA movement after some less that satisfactory experiences with Selitta movements.

 Nivarox hairspring provides anti-magnetic capabilities, this is the Isograph model with printed on the smoked gradient dial. Beating at 28,800 vph, this keeps the movement nice and accurate, whilst some manufacturers are slowing down movements to extend service periods, this 4 Hz frequency maintains COSC accuracy and certification.

This is the three hand model, I am not up for the chronograph model, even if it is not historically correct. Incidentally, the Autavia was originally a dashboard timer, so a chronograph is really purpose orientated. That being said, I have no issues with chronographs, the three hand version of the Autavia looks so clean and uncluttered. 

The 42 mm case is a reasonable size for my wrist, I can understand it being too large for many wrists. The case design is similar to previous models, the 42 mm case is identical to the chronograph models. There is an argument that the three hand reference has a slightly smaller 40 mm case, there are times a 42 mm case is just too big for many wrists and I tend to agree, you don’t want the lugs hanging over your wrist. 

The three link stainless steel bracelet, with butterfly clasp is clean. The bidirectional ceramic bezel insert provides a scratch resistant face with the sapphire crystal, almost mandatory for modern luxury watches. While some believe leather looks more formal, I prefer a stainless steel bracelet for a sports watch and a leather strap for a dress watch.

If you have accepted a job role in a government institution without meeting merit selection principles, then you are a crony – there is no getting around it. If there is not an advertised position, then there is not an actual requirement for the role. I have no issues with people taking on extra duties, the accepted format is you ask everyone in the particular section if they are willing to take on extra responsibilities and duties.

Then everyone has the opportunity to step up and take on these duties, if people derive some benefits then everyone was given the opportunity to apply. If a small few are selected without any competitive selection process, this can only be crony selection, so much for equity principles. Let’s be under no illusions here, this is impropriety. A select few are offered special entitlements in a process that lacks transparency.

You generally find these are not people who are undertaking extra duties, they have special duties that are not available to others and have their workload reduced. This is the domain of the yes men, these people are promoted above their capacity and are in debt to those who promoted them. Likewise, they know these benefits can be removed if they do not support their leader – this is a pretty cosy arrangement for all involved.

I really only know two Chopard timepieces, the Alpine Eagle is the second of the two, the other is the Mille Miglia. I had placed the Mille Miglia timepiece on my wrist previously in a Chopard boutique in the Greenbelt mall in Makati, Philippines – I liked it.

Designed by Karl-Friedrich Scheufele, the Alpine Eagle XL Chronograph is very interesting, very different from the Gerald Genta designs that this watch is attempting to emulate. I never tried on the Alpine Eagle in the boutique, I was only focused on the Mille Miglia during that visit. The Alpine Eagle is a steel sports watch with an integrated bracelet, this is a pretty fashionable style steeped in retro style. This fits into the Royal Oak, Nautilus and Overseas category. As a leading watch manufacturer, Chopard is sometimes relegated into the jewellery category, this is unfortunate. 

They need an iconic timepiece, the Mille Miglia along with the Alpine Eagle propel them into that elite group, only their marketing lets them down, they don’t possess mainstream brand recognition that Audermars Piguet and Patek Philippe does. The external bezel screws all align, the largish stainless steel bezel looks like it can scratch easily, this is why the ceramic bezel insert is important. I bash watches around as I wear them at work, the Alpine Eagle is a steel sports watch so this is what one would expect.

Interesting lessons from the stalled Russian invasion of Ukraine is perceived in communist China, I do not for one moment think that the CCP leadership is stupid. They are smart enough to look closely at the Russian failure in Ukraine and review their own priorities of taking Taiwan, by force if necessary, according to their own statements.   

Putin miscalculated, he perceived NATO to be ineffective, corrupted and disjointed; actually he is correct. Yet, NATO is organised enough to unite against an aggressive Russia. Mussolini was a fascist with illusions of grandeur, he thought he could side with the NAZI regime and return Italy to the greatness of the Roman empire.

Putin is similar to Hitler, he is a brutal dictator whilst lacking the knowledge, skills and motivation of the NAZI establishment. He has a whole country at his disposal, not just a small impoverished nation, Putin has control of a superpower with a large army and nuclear weapons to threaten the world. Russia is now sanctioned by most of the world damaging the Russian economy, I think Chinese leadership will be looking hard at this. 

Likewise, China has a huge population, a large military and industrial base to support military operations. Their military is rapidly modernising, they are adding ships to their navy at an alarming rate, have modern fighter jets and a large arsenal of missiles. At some stage, the CCP may seek to engage in some small military operation to test the readiness of their military, that includes logistics, weapons, tactics and their ability to deploy weapons systems.

The CCP are also watching the Russian invasion, they are checking the support of Ukraine and if nations would consider supporting Taiwan the same way they are supporting Ukraine. The US has offered full support of Taiwan with Japan and India looking to offer support. The US will off the bulk of the support with the UK, Canada, Australia, Germany and France also looking to support a Taiwanese defence. 

I reckon the US military won’t go steaming in for a major action, they will sit back and lock the Chinese navy in to the first island chain. Japan will be critical for this defence along with the base in South Korea. Guam will play a huge part with the US navy preventing the Chinese navy from taking control of the western Pacific. 

The navy will blockade Chinese shipping and their ability to trade with the world. China has massive energy requirements so a naval blockade will prevent oil from getting through. The US Air Force will look to hit the radar in the South China Sea and raids on Chinese naval bases will erode their  ability to resupply their ships. Air bases will be hit with missiles fired from stealth platforms to hamper their ability to respond.

The Chinese naval ships locked in the islands will be hunted on a ship-by-ship basis until they are inoperable or sunk. The Indian navy will be patrolling the Indian Ocean and causing a blockade of the Strait of Malacca and Sunda Strait, the Chinese economy will be placed under duress with military bases targeted along with industrial centres. Either China withdraws from attacking Taiwan or their ability to control Taiwan erodes their country so much that they collapse. 

Yes, the CCP are looking at the sanctions against Russia knowing full well the same sanctions will be placed on them until their economy is strangled. The CCP leadership is looking at how well Russia is faring against a strong Ukraine and wonders if Taiwan could put up the same resistance. They are very much gauging the response of Taiwanese allies and how far they are willing to go to defend Taiwan. They are not liking the support offered to Ukraine and are concerned the same support is offered to Taiwan. 

Glashütte Original is an excellent timepiece, I am becoming more interested in German horology after moving on from Swiss watchmaking. The village of Glashütte in the Saxony region of Germany is just a train trip from Dresden, so it wasn’t hard to organise a visit. Sitting in the high-range market segment of the Swatch Group, Glashütte Original manufactures some highly interesting timepieces. Whilst mostly sold to European consumers, the Glashütte Original brand is expanding its brand beyond the borders of the EU.

Whilst the Glashütte Original advertising suggests Glashütte watchmaking dates back to 1845, I really think they are much younger than what their literature states. Not that I care, I am really interested in what they are manufacturing right now. They produce some pretty decent timepieces, even if they are a little out of my price range.

The SeaQ is an excellent dive timepiece that challenges Swatch Group brand the Omega Seamaster and the Rolex Submariner. When I am asked if a person should purchase a Submariner, I put forward the Glashütte Original SeaQ, Longines HydroConquest, TAG Heuer Aquaracer and Omega Diver 300 and Planet Ocean as alternatives from a number of price ranges.

We were down at our weekend house just 75 kilometres south of Perth and wanted to head down to Andy’s brewery. I had only heard about it through rumour, so when I found out this was a reality, I wanted to immediately go.

The Three Rivers Brewing Company is in an industrial area very close to the Woolworths supermarket where I shop and the Bunnings hardware store I go to. So, this is fair to say that this is now my local bar when we are down on our weekender. Mind you, our weekender isn’t flash, we do have million dollar views though.

So, having known Andy for an extended period as a work colleague, I know he is a pretty good guy. I have known through discussions with him that he was already a brewer having produced some award winning beers already. So my nephew and I walked into the brewery, the front section is set up as a small bar, they have some limited food on. This is a small microbrewery, they don’t yet have a large clientele, especially late on a Saturday afternoon, there were a few people there wearing industrial work wear though.

At work I have spoken to Andy about his sustainability initiatives he has built for his home, he has created natural heating and cooling, uses sustainable power generation and water use. These are attributes I respect, he doesn’t just talk about it, he actually creates his own sustainability outcomes. He is just a guy that is mostly action, and little talk. When we did a tour of his facility, straight away you knew he would be embedding market leading sustainable practices into this business.

Ok, so what about the beers. Sure, we were there to support Andy, we also wanted to see what he produced. I began with a Jester Kolsch, this lighter style pilsner is a wheat beer with some citrus flavours. My second choice was a Tomahawk American Pale Ale, this was a decent drop for me with a medium-hop flavour. The Irish Red Ale was my last selection, according to Andy this ale has kilned unmalted barley to add some roasted flavours to the brew.