I love reading the pro-Putin comments online with his legion of online lackeys claiming to destroy all the US supplied Himar rocket systems. We see these pop up in online forums all the time, if you disagree with them, you just follow western media like sheep – yeah right.

Russian sources have claimed to have destroyed more Himar systems than has been supplied to Ukraine, well, we all know Russian reporting of this war [sorry, special military operation] is notoriously imprecise. Much like a Russian missile system actually, but could there actually be some truth to the Russian Ministry of Defence claims?

The Russian military is almost expert at destroying decoy Ukraine Himar sites, they don’t move, don’t shoot back and are easily spotted by Russian drones. Then the coordinates are forwarded to Russian Black Sea forces to expend naval long-range cruise missiles on decoy [sometimes constructed from wood] sites. The real Himar launchers have launched their precision missiles and long since relocated to hit Russian targets elsewhere.

Watching YouTube videos of the Russian war in Ukraine, I try to view two sides of every story. The 10 day special military operation is clearly a failure from the perspective that the Russian invaders have failed to meet their objectives. Ok, so these objectives are constantly moving with the countless failures, but we all know what they tried on, and it failed.

So now there has been a partial mobilisation, this is leading to further Russian failures. Untrained conscripts are forced to the front lines to be used as cannon fodder. These poorly trained, under-resourced, undisciplined and shockingly bad mobiks have no command leadership and are sent to the front lines to die. They might have an overwhelming numerical advantage over the Ukrainian defenders, but their lack of fighting ability and grit quickly erodes this advantage.

What I see on videos released is Russian mothers, wives and girlfriends pleading to the Russian hierarchy to better train, equip and support their men. Make no mistake, they are not questioning the invasion of Ukraine, they are demanding better conditions [and pay] for their men. They offer no regrets for the suffering of the Ukrainian people, they still use derogatory terms for Ukrainians showing no remorse whatsoever.

Well, sending these poorly trained men to the front lines to try to kill Ukrainian soldiers fighting for freedom, they are failing miserably and the more Russians forced into the meat grinder slowly undermines the future capacity of Russia. It is clear that these women support the invasion of Ukraine, they view Ukrainians as unequal to them and they must pay the price of this arrogance with their lives. Every Ukrainian life lost defending their freedom is a tragedy, the Russian invaders are labelled orcs, their losses are nowhere near as tragic.

I am asking myself, why is the Wagner Group pouring so many resources into trying to take the town of Bakhmut. From a military perspective, there does not seem to be a great military objective here so many are speculating why Russia is pushing so hard here – I am wondering too.

The first possibility is the Wagner Group is pushing their own agenda here, they are being paid by the Russian government to meet objectives. They are pushing an internal agenda that the Russian military fails to meet objectives, but the Wagner Group is successful. This is very much an internal power play, the Wagner Group seeks more lucrative government contracts and is attempting to build their reputation.

There is discussion that Russians are waking up to the fact that this war is not going well for Russia as the second possibility. This may lead to the end of Putin himself, this military failure may set off a power struggle in the Kremlin. The Russians historically have little tolerance of military failure, this leads to upheaval and the leadership is replaced. It is precisely this leadership failure that led the country into this war, during covid, Putin was isolated during the covid pandemic due to his inner circle falling ill and he may have become obsessed with the goal and NATO in general.

Thirdly, Yevgeny Prigozhin is well connected to Putin himself, he was the personal chef to Putin after becoming a loyal ally with Putin becoming a regular diner at his restaurants in St Petersburg. Prigozhin may be setting the Wagner Group up for alliance to the new regime should Putin be displaced as President. This collection of rag tag low-level mercenaries are not top end talent from the Russian military, they recruit from prison allowing sentences to be waived should they survive. This requires high-level contacts, this really does not reflect well on Russian government processes.

Putin has been a Presidential dictator of Russia since 2012, after being Prime Minister from 2008 – 2012. The next possibility is that Prigozhin is seeing weakness in Putin and he feels Putin might not survive as President. This may be the opportunity for Prigozhin to use this probable upheaval to push his case to become the next President. There has been speculation that Putin is preparing a residence in exile in South America should he be deposed as President.

There is speculation that Russia is trying to get within artillery striking range of two Ukrainian field HQ as the fifth possibility. Should they gain control of Bakhmut, they can position their artillery on the outskirts of Bakhmut and pound these positions. However, this does not discount the fact that Russia could just hit these areas with missile strikes. This would tend to indicate these field HQs are heavily defended from missile strikes and the Russians are not confident that they are capable of hitting these targets with their missiles.

Sixth, Russia is seeking to drag Ukraine into a quagmire to tie up and destroy resources, this is intended to weaken the Ukrainian resolve. Putin’s targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure is a further attempt to break their resolve. Russia may be seeking to negotiate a ceasefire, they are attempting to freeze them out, but this doesn’t appear to be working either. The Ukrainian people are steadfast, they want Russia out, they are not willing to negotiate from a weak position and they are certainly not willing to negotiate their sovereignty.

Lastly, this may be an old plan that has not been updated prior to Russia losing Kharkiv. The Wagner Group is being paid, or may have already been paid to take Bakhmut already. There has been some discussion that the Russian people have already been told that they have won this battle, the objective is now just to appease a home audience. Possibly Putin’s hold on power is not as strong as we think it is, maybe he is fragile

This then begs the question, why is Ukraine pouring so many resources into this town? Ukraine themselves may be trying to bog down Russian troops [Wagner Group] and resources, possibly. Ukraine will defend this area. Ukraine is not giving an inch, they are defending hard but taking losses too. My only concern is they are being dragged into a trap. There is a possibility Russia will be ground down in the very offensive they launched.

The Ukrainian forces have a sense of humour, this has been declassified and we see what they did for their Christmas and New Year holidays. According to reports, the Himars targeted Russian munitions stores. We are also aware that the vocational school in Makiivka used as barracks for Russian soldiers were also hit with Himars with even Russia admitting multiple deaths. 

Despite Russian claims that they have destroyed more Himars than has been delivered, there is some truth here as the Russian forces have blown up plenty of Himars decoys – this is not true. This is the long-range weapon that the Ukrainian forces rely on, the Ukrainians are so brazen with their most important weapon that they dress it up and send some presents off to the Russian invaders and film the action.

What is interesting is Ukraine made it look like they were attacking Kherson so Russia pulled troops and equipment out to defend Kherson leaving Kharkiv exposed and Ukraine launched those now infamous thunder runs to penetrate deep behind Russian lines. This is like a scene out of Mad Max in the post apocalyptic world, this is pretty wild, Ukraine is causing some major disruption to Russia.

Now just weeks later, they are going after Kherson too, so where did all that Russian defensive structure go? Russia planned poorly for the invasion of Ukraine, they thought this was 2014 again when they marched in pretty much unopposed to Crimea. The Obama administration, NATO and the rest of the world stood by, the messaging to Putin was clear.

The four years of the chaotic Trump administration was equally as indecisive, Trump undercut NATO and sent subliminal messages to Putin that NATO was indecisive, wracked with infighting and inconsequential. With US and NATO assistance, Ukrainian troops received NATO training, adapted NATO doctrine and tactics. The US and NATO were initially reluctant to supply modern weapons to Ukraine as it was thought they would soon collapse and modern weaponry would be captured.

Oh, how wrong everyone was. Ukraine put up an amazing fight, they defeated the Russian advance on Kyiv harassing the Russian forces back. Ukraine began winning on the battlefield with long range artillery and mobile rocket launchers. Russia held a long defensive line and repelled Russian advances around Kharkiv, they spread misinformation and prepared to attack Kherson. Russia was stretched and withdrew troops from Kharkiv to defend Kherson.

That’s when Ukrainian thunder runs exploded through Russian defensives in the east. In what looked like Mad Max intrusions, mobile Ukrainian troops hit multiple points of the front lines in small groupings looking for weakness and holes in the Russian defensives. Then they pulled back and looked for other areas of weakness, these were rapid incursions designed to cause panic. These guys are brave, recklessly so. In what was a bold move aided by western intelligence, small patrols of around 6 men crashed through the front lines causing havoc.

Once these thunder runs had commenced, further patrol followed them in and hit Russian defenders from behind. There was havoc as the Russian officers had already departed, there was panic as these men knew they had been left to die. At this point, their best option was to surrender as Russian prisoners were being treated well. The Russians needed to get out of there, they dropped their weapons and ran, they stole bicycles, vehicles and jumped on their vehicles and scattered.

The Russians left so quickly they left huge stockpiles of weapons, fighting vehicles, armour and intelligence infrastructure and materials. It soon became clear how poorly organised these defences were and how bad morale was. The mass surrender of Russian troops had the potential to derail the fast moving Ukrainian forces, they needed to stop, process and hold Russian POWs. Ironically, Russia is now the largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine, this offensive move was spectacular, Ukraine achieved far more than what I am guessing was the most optimistic predictions- Slava Ukraine.

I viewed an interview by Lieutenant Ilia Samoilenko of the Azov Regiment when they were held up in the Mariupol Steel Works in May 2022. He was interviewed by Sky News, it was looking very grim, they were not sure if they were going to survive, it was looking less than likely.

During the siege, Samoilenko became the spokesman for the Azov Regiment, taking interviews from deep within the steelworks. Samoilenko is highly educated studying history at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Lieutenant Samoilenko is well spoken, he firstly criticised politicians for not providing the regiment with enough weaponry and then went on to ask the global community for assistance – it worked.

Samoilenko joined the Azov Regiment in 2015 after the Russian invasion of Crimea and the ongoing insurgency in the Donbas region. Samoilenko lost his left arm and right eye when munitions exploded in his hand when he was on a mission in the eastern Donbas in 2018. Samoilenko rehabilitated himself and rejoined his comrades in the Azov Regiment as his goal to expel the Russian invaders from Ukraine had not yet been achieved.

Samoilenko’s statement during the siege of “we are taking losses, everyday might be our last.” He then followed up “as for now, the result of this might be our imminent death or capture by the enemy which also means death for us and the consequences of this might be very catastrophic for the Ukrainian defence and the Ukrainian state.”

Lieutenant Samoilenko also explained “Our lives mean nothing, but our fight means everything” and he did not see surrender as a realistic option. Regardless, he stated that they had not been ordered to surrender and they would not break orders. Lieutenant Samoilenko was forthright when he stated that they witnessed Russian war crimes and they would not be kept alive as these witnesses. Ultimately, they were ordered to surrender on May 16 by their commanders after a deal of sorts was reached.

I had been trying to follow Lieutenant Samoilenko after that surrender and evacuation, they were bused to the Olenivka detention centre in Donetsk, a region under control by the Russian backed separatists. I could not find any information on him or the regiment and was concerned, I had grave concerns he and his comrades would just disappear. They were then transferred to an undisclosed location in Russia where some are still imprisoned,

When the Olenivka detention centre housing Ukrainian prisoners of war were held including members of the Azov Regiment, I was pretty sure Russia was looking for a way of making the hated Azov Regiment disappear. There were 50 deaths from that explosion, naturally the Russian attempted to blame the explosion on a Himar missile strike claiming that the Ukrainian government was trying to kill their own soldiers.

The Russians claimed the Ukrainian government was trying to get rid of these fighters despite being national heroes. The international community did not believe these claims Samoilenko was then held for 120 days in solitary confinement, there have been claims the the Azov Regiment soldiers had been tortured by their Russian captors, currently Samoilenko is not making these claims. Lieutenant Samoilenko was released from captivity during a prisoner swap in September 2022 and reunited with his family. There are still members of the Azov Regiment imprisoned in undisclosed locations in Russia.

I have written previously about the Kadyrov TicTok troops supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine and I have been less than complimentary of their motives to serve the Putin regime. Chechnya has twice fought the Russians in recent history for independence from Russia and failed on both occasions. Despite a spirited uprising, their fight was eventually snuffed out by superior Russian numbers and firepower.

I am highly supportive of the Chechen fighters battling for the liberation of Ukraine. They share a common interest in defeating a brutal regime. Could this war lead to the break-up of the Russian Federation in a similar way the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, this is entirely feasible. When this Ukraine conflict has been won, I am hoping these battle hardened troops return to Chechnya to fight for independence from Russia.

Already the Russian sphere of influence is declining, the neighbouring countries show disdain to President Putin, the fear of Russian military action is reducing. Previously the regional power, the Ukrainians have shown the world that they will fight the Russian war machine, they are not merely holding out, they intend to eject every last Russian from Ukrainian territory.

This provides an opportunity for Chechnya, with Russian forces bogged down in this Ukrainian quagmire, they have neither the physical resources or manpower to crush another uprising from Chechnya. Whilst the Putin installed puppet in Ramzan Kadyrov stays at home to defend the Kremlin’s interests, losses of Chechen TicTok troops in Crimea after being hit with a Himars missile and major losses of Wagner Group troops in Bakhmut place greater strain on the TicTok troops.

With Russia engaged in a rout in Ukraine, the opportunity will again resurface where Chechnya can challenge Russian military power. First, Kadyrov has to be defeated, his hold on power in Chechnya is absolute and this is the problem. Whilst he is running around shirtless making mind-numbing propaganda videos, if the TicTok troops losses mount, then maybe an uprising can take hold.

The surrounding central Asian countries will soon be able to break free from Russian influences, what Ukraine has done is show Russia can be defeated. With Russia rapidly losing power and influence in Ukraine, resources are stretched, the sanctions are beginning to really bite. Hopefully Western nations can impose a stronger financial burden on Russia further damaging their economy and hampering their ability to wage military operations against their neighbours providing the opportunity for Russian neighbours to act and secure their security.

I watched the Volodymyr Zelensky address to the US House of Representatives just before Christmas, it was inspirational. Zelensky refused to flee Ukraine at the start of the Russian invasion. His now famous line of “I want ammunition, not a ride” reverberates strongly now.

So why did Zelensky leave Ukraine now? As Ukrainian President Zelensky needs to garner international support for Ukraine, there were some concerns regarding wavering US support. There was genuine concern that if the Republicans gained control of the House during the midterms the US would be forced to downgrade or even withdraw support for Ukraine. On first appearances, it looks like Zelensky has solidified united support from both sides of politics – this was required.

Just days before, Zelensky was at the front lines in Bakhmut, Zelensky presented a signed Ukrainian flag from the front lines with messages to the US Congress by the soldiers at the front line battling the Russian invaders. I struggle to believe that a terrorist nation can just invade a sovereign nation and the world fails to act. Yet that is what the Republican Party wanted to do; fortunately, they were embarrassed at the midterms and their control of the House evaporated. 

Walking into the House Zelensky received a standing ovation, that is a given, but the power and length of that standing ovation sent a clear message, Zelensky has earned united support. Ok, so what was offered? For the next year, Ukraine will receive $1.8 billion USD of military aid, this is not charity though. This is an investment in democracy, this stand against tyranny will ensure peace in Europe for a generation. I fully believe Ukraine will defeat Russia, in the beginning of this conflict I just hoped they could hold out, now I feel they will be victorious.

In a case that has pretty much divided Australian opinion, the sexual assault case brought against Bruce Lehrmann has been abandoned with no decision against the accused. Lehrmann has strenuously denied any sexual activity took place, Higgins was unable to prove her allegations in court. A mistrial was declared after one of the jurors consisting of eighth women and four men undertook personal research on false rape accusations and was discovered by chance.

Do I claim to know what happened in Linda Reynold’s office that night? I do not. Do I claim to have an opinion on either the veracity of Higgin’s accusations or of Lehrmann’s innocence or guilt? I do not. What I am doing is analysing the events leading up to the court case and the role of the media in this case. This is a case of trial by media, there has been an agenda throughout this whole affair and it is concerning.

So what do we actually know about this case? Brittany Higgins accused former political staffer Bruce Lehrmann after a boozy night out in Canberra where they both returned to Parliament House after hours. They entered the office of Minister Linda Reynolds where the alleged assault took place. Bruce Lehrmann was dismissed from his position for breaching security; interestingly, Higgins kept her job. This is uncontested, the facts have been tabled in the ACT court and reported in the media.

Brittany Higgins became the spokesperson for sexual assault in Australia, I very much doubt few people would have issues with preventing sexual assault in this country. The Australian #Me Too movement has become involved, The role of Lisa Wilkenson and her Logie speech forced a delay in the trial, this loss of the presumption of innocence for the accused.

The legal system is structured on a number of tenants. Firstly, the accused is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Depending on their risk to the community, the accused may be remanded in custody or granted bail – this is the job of the court. Secondly, there is admissibility of evidence, this is the standard of proof determining the importance of evidence in the proceedings and the gravity of matters related to the question.

Thirdly, there is cross examination by the defence to challenge and test the evidence in a contested legal matter. This is based on the precedence of Browne v Dunn (1893), the basis of this rule is fairness where a procecution cannot rely on evidence that is contradictory to the testimony of the witness without putting the evidence to the witness in order to allow them to attempt to justify the contradiction. So, if a prosecutor wishes to enter evidence, the opposing party has the right to raise the contention in court to challenge the evidence.

What happened to the prosecution [Higgins] made their case and the defense [Lehrmann] was afforded the opportunity to challenge the testimony given by Higgins and other prosecution witnesses. Outside the court, Higgins complained on camera that she had been subjected to cross examination and Lehrmann sat there detached. Lehrmann was not called as a witness in court, he had been questioned by police and later charged where he was required to make a statement. Well, this is what happens at trial, the prosecution has to outline their case and the defense has the right to cross examine the presented evidence.

The Russian TikTok soldiers of the Chechen Kadyrov forces make me laugh, they are horrible brutal people who torture and rape Ukrainian citizens in occupied areas. Any losses they suffer are not losses to anyone else, the more times their regiment is hit the better. 

So I laughed hard when they were busy doing their silly TikTok uploads and gave away their position. They actually gave away their position on TikTok, that is just insane. In an enormously funny response, Ukraine responded with a Himars missile attack, they then showed the aftermath of the missile strike on TikTok – ha ha. They were all disheveled and smashed up, well, that was the ones that were  still alive that is. I can barely believe these morons shared footage of themselves all shot up with dozens dead – they are absolute deadbeats. That will be less Kadyrov Chechen thugs to murder and torture the citizens of Ukraine. There are Chechen soldiers fighting for Ukraine as well, so I am not against Chechnya, but those Kadyrov thugs, happy to see them wasted on the battlefield.