I have been following the Ukraine war, that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I could go even further and describe this war as Putin”s invasion of Ukraine. This special military operation has been a failure from the first days of the invasion, the Russian military failed to achieve their stated objectives.

I have seen interviews with Russians, they are unrepentant, they hate Ukrainians. They do not want western democracy, instead they call the Ukrainians Nazis and fascists. So ok, we all know what a Nazi is, they were wiped out in a decisive manner in World War II. So ok, what is a fascist then? Before I analyse this, I need to ask the question, does Ukraine have an elected leader, then I need to ask, does Russia have an elected leader. The answer is yes in the first instance and no in the second instance.

So I need to ask, who are the fascists really? That answer is pretty obvious, the fascists do what fascists do and engage in human rights abuses. Notwithstanding, the fascists are claiming they are demilitarising Ukraine, they are demilitarising their own armed forces and they haven’t worked it out yet. The Russian navy has been ineffective, they will not go anywhere near the Ukraine coast for fear of being sunk.

The Russian air force has not established air superiority over Ukraine despite having a much larger force, once again ineffective. What is funny is Ukrainian forces are striking Russian air force assets sitting on the tarmac, they are not safe even in Russia. After a series of drone strikes deep in Russian territory, the Russian military has had to pull air defence assets back from the front lines to defend military airfields and even Moscow.

So the fascists are learning they are not safe deep behind the border of Ukraine, their invasion has stalled, their military has been humbled and their army demilitarised. They have suffered embarrassing failures in doctrine, strategy, logistics, leadership, tactics and execution. This has been a colossal military failure, Europe no longer fears the Russian military. Sure, they fear the dictator with access to nuclear weapons, but even that fool knows that will be the end of Russia.

As the snow will thaw soon, it is expected the spring offensive will begin shortly and the tanks supplied by western nations become available. Prior to winter, Ukraine made some stunning gains routing Russian troops from Kharkiv and Kherson, they held Bakhmut and defended Soledar until it was time to pull back to deplete Russian resources.

The thunder runs were first used in the Vietnam war by running M48 Patton tanks as minesweepers by the 11th Armored Cavalry. Instead of wasting time with traditional minesweeping techniques, the US forces ran the tanks down the road with one track on the road and the other track on the shoulder. The M48 could withstand the blast, any damage from the mine explosion would require some roadside repairs from time to time to undercarriage.

The Americans effectively employed thunder runs to storm Baghdad during the second Iraq war by the 3rd Infantry. The American thunder runs were initiated by armour, they probe for weak points in defensive fortifications, then concentrate force at weak points to break through defensive lines.

The Ukrainian thunder runs to take Kharkiv back prior to winter were impressive, they showed the European nations they were up to the task prior to the winter lull in offensive manoeuvres. With the tanks promised to Ukraine, the expected spring offensive has the potential to see Ukraine blast through Russian defences.

How Ukraine has held up the Russian advance at Bakhmut has been sensational, desperate for any type of victory, Russia has thrown almost unlimited resources at Bakhmut. We can only speculate at why Ukraine has thrown resources into defending Bakhmut, we had hoped they had not been enticed into a trap. I think Ukraine has drawn Russia into a trap where they are depleting their tanks, artillery shells, and their personnel whilst attacking their logistics via long-range rockets.

So we speculate where the Ukrainian offensive will begin, it will likely be in the south near Kherson pushing towards Crimea. There is likely to be a push through the landbridge to cut Russian supply lines and isolate Russian units from resupply so Mauripol is a big chance. The Russian forces have been very vocal requesting support on social media, they need artillery shells, they are thrown into human wave attacks with just four magazines.

I thought Ukraine was a little reckless in their autumn thunder runs, they didn’t have tanks, they were riding on Mad Max type fast vehicles to push hard through the Russian defensive lines. They are certainly fast moving, but they lack protection and they can easily outrun their logistics. What they offer is the ability to cause confusion to an army lacking leadership, cohesion and method. We are all waiting for the spring offensive to see what Ukraine will do, we are hoping they will push through Russian lines causing another collapse.

As a fellow Quad member to counter the threat of China to the Indio/Pacific region, India sits in a highly strategic position in central Asia. The vast Indian Ocean is a major trade route linking the Middle Middle East to South Asia through the choke points of Indonesia and Malaysia. If conflict with China was to break out, India would hold a decisive role in containing Chinese merchant shipping to create a naval blockade of the Chinese mainland.

It would be an unlikely proposition for a nation to want to invade China, the strategy would more than likely be a naval blockade of Chinese shipping to strangle the Chinese economy. This is where the Indian navy has the ability to control passage through the Indian Ocean. The choke points of the Strait of Malacca, Lomkok Strait and Suunda Strait pretty much restrict Chinese supply.

Yes, the CCP has sought to control the South China Sea, a large volume of international shipping transits this region, but if access is restricted, then critical access to Chinese industry is strangled and the Chinese economy collapses. India is a critical member of the Quad, their denial of Chinese shipping is the decisive factor controlling the containment of China.

There is a chance China would launch long-range bombers to target Indian naval and merchant shipping in the Indian Ocean. I would expect the Indian Air Force to provide protection for their surface ships as they have an aircraft carrier, I am yet to determine if they employ battle groups, then they have an air warfare defence capability.

I suspect much of the action in a conflict with China will focus on the first island chain and the necessity to contain the Chinese navy within these confines. The Chinese navy dominates regional forces taking a heavy-handed approach to regional forces, this will change with a peer-to-peer adversary. It is likely an international alliance will provide both expertise and assets to a conflict with China so it is likely a taskforce would be the real adversary.

China on the other hand does not have the international treaties and alliances to develop a functional alliance to counter a US led alliance. China has a relationship with Russia; however, China is no longer the junior partner. With the Russian disaster in Ukraine, Russia has destroyed their military capability and is no longer a useful partner. Indeed, the CCP may seek to influence the central Asian nations and wrest control away from Russian influence. First, China will need to atone for their suppression of the Uigher minority in western China.

In a regional sense, North Korea would seek to contain South Korea; as such, South Korea is joined to China and well within reach of Chinese missiles. This would also contain the US bases in South Korea, they are also under threat of attack. The threat of conflict between North and South Korea has the potential to be devastating for both nations, South Korea is within striking distance of Chinese missiles, a missile defence system could prevent Chinese missile attacks but would do nothing to stop North Korean artillery.

Iran is likely to support China, mostly for their disdain for the US, not really shared values. Iran has a strong cyber capability that may support Chinese interests. Iranian drone technology is relatively unsophisticated, but the possibility to swarm US systems could overwhelm defences through sheer numbers cannot be underestimated. Whilst western technology is undoubtedly more advanced, there is a case for a large number of low-grade weapons that could tie up expensive defensive weapons to deplete defences.

It is only a small winery, I don’t see their product in bottle shops all that often, so when I do, I make sure I grab a bottle or two. I put a wine rack down our holiday house, only 12 bottles, but now I can store some plonk down there too.

One of my favourites is Bowen Estate, a small Coonawarra winery from South Australia, a very small parcel of land not far from Padthaway and Wrattonbully wine regions. Their label doesn’t change so it is easy to spot, the light yellow label with red Bowen Estate naming ensures a degree of consistency, one hopes they don’t employ a marketing firm to change their look.

Speaking of consistency, that is exactly what you get with their cabernet sauvignon, a deep dark red colour, this full bodied cabernet is a great example of Coonawarra winemaking. Bowen Estate is located on traditional prime terra rossa soil of Coonawarra. I love it, whenever I see a bottle in the bottleshop, I make sure I pick one up.

The 1970s styling of the integrated bracelet stainless steel sports watch is in demand again. The often forgotten Chopard came up with their own design in the late 70s to ensure they are not left behind style wise on this trend. The integrated bracelet steel sports watch is highly desired with demand outstripping supply pushing prices to unattainable levels.

The Alpine Eagle XL Chronograph is no exception, Chopard has some outstanding designs and the Alpine Eagle and Alpine Eagle XL Chronograph meet the steel sports watch criteria for industrial styling. what I would consider part of the second tier of luxury integrated bracelet steel sports watch. The screws in the bezel are grouped in double sets at the major indices, this is a slight style modification homage to the base design principles of the Royal Oak. But this is hardly innovative, this is by no means a new design, just a different version of an established design principle.

The date window between the sub-dials is something I find interesting, I am no fan of the date windows at all, mostly as a) I can’t read it anymore, b) because I think it throws the symmetry of the dial out, and c) it clutters up the dial. But, I appreciate that the vast majority of people want a date on their dial so I concede that I am in the minority with these views.

So, the question I ask myself is, would I purchase a Alpine Eagle or an Alpine Eagle XL Chronograph? Well, it depends. The steel sports watch with integrated bracelet is in high demand, even at this price range I sèek value for money, even if it is comparative value. For me, does Chopard offer value for money over its competitors and does the style stand up? Yeah, I think it does.

Why bother with a retrial when it is unlikely to add further value to Higgin’s book deal. The Director of Public Prosecutions had to eventually abandon the retrial, but it was clear that Shane Drumgold SC did not want to abandon the prosecution despite not yielding the result they wanted. There were concerns for Higgins’ wellbeing, this is the reason offered, I tend to think there is more to this.

Negotiated by Lisa Wilkinson’s husband Peter FitzSimons, the book was worth a $325k advance, that is a pretty decent down payment. I would expect it unlikely that Pirate Pete is negotiating a book advance for Bruce Lehrmann in the interest of balanced reporting, his version of events would make interesting reading.

What we do know through trial testimony is that Higgins was drafting book chapters before she reported the matter to police. Since there was no guilt recorded against Lehrmann, Higgins will be highly restricted in what she can put in her book, she will definitely be reviewed by the editor.

Wilkinson was well paid on The Project and along with FitzSimons were heavily involved with Higgins. So should Lehrmann seek restitution, both Lisa and Peter can afford a significant settlement. Wilkinson delayed the trial for three months after her speech at the Logie Awards and that may make the producers of The Project liable. They advertise The Project as news done differently, they might want to revamp their format and offer balanced reporting of the facts.

So now we learned that the Higgins team settled with the government for around $3 million, it was an undisclosed sum, but their initial demand was for that amount. Not a bad financial outcome for a trial that went nowhere. Sure, there will be lawyer’s fees to be deducted from that settlement, it is still a lot of money.

Now we need to find out if the Lehrmann team will go after some, or all of the Higgins settlement. Since there was no trial outcome, he had no opportunity to clear his name, what we do know is that the jury was unable to reach a decision, so this indicates that members of the jury did not believe the Higgins testimony.

When I read comments sections on social media, I am intrigued how people post opinions as fact in an attempt to persuade people’s thinking. Surely they are no so stupid to believe their own lies, or maybe they are starting to convince themselves of their own stupidity. These weak minded attempts to manipulate people’s opinions really only feed their own cognitive biases. They are firstly looking for people to agree with them and then people to argue with who disagree with them.

I have to admit, I do like baiting these simpletons and laughing when they get all worked up. We all have a difference of opinion in so many issues, it is highly improbable that we will agree on all issues. So stop forcing your beliefs on others and getting aggressive when we disagree with your pointless views. You can’t influence us with your silly opinions, so just stop trying. Generally, the intellectuals are not commenting on social media so this sphere is left to the deadheads – who would have thought?

The ethics of whistleblowing involves a number of moral values, one is loyalty, the other is equity principles. The individual has to balance the principles of loyalty to their employer or organisation whilst ensuring their personal values are not compromised.

Whilst loyalty is an admirable quality, one’s responsibility to act in an ethical manner in order to ensure organisational integrity. It takes a strong character to call out wrongdoing, it is a career killer at best and could get you blacklisted at worse. Then you actually have to make your way into work, you may have ethics, but you have to deal with the workplace gossip and associated pressure. 

The moral dilemma of conducting oneself in a morally justifiable manner doesn’t pay the mortgage, the bills or put food on the table. Ultimately one has to consider their personal situation, that is important, but also important is taking an ethical stance when they know it will only bring personal hardship.

So, is whistleblowing an ethical practice? Absolutely it is, the onus is not on the individual who uncovers wrongdoing, the responsibility is of the management to create a culture where misappropriation and wrongdoing is discouraged to such a degree that no reasonable person would even consider engaging in unconscionable conduct.

We are entering a new era, the threats to Australia’s sovereignty are real. We once planned for a ten year build-up period, I believe we are now in this ten year lead-in time frame. Ok, so the defence of the Australian mainland is real, we need a genuine deterrence, the air force is the primary defensive mechanism protecting Australia.

Yes, Australia is a trading nation so the defence of our sea lanes is imperative. The air force is required to provide air support of naval assets. The F-35 will be the primary defensive weapon to support the defence of Australia. Yes, this is deterrence, an invading force will need to determine if it is worth the losses to invade the Australian mainland, we need to ensure it isn’t.

The Japanese swept down through South East Asia in the 1940s, they were stopped in New Guinea, now the air force will prevent any incursion on Australian sovereignty. We saw the Japanese build up in the 1930s, their treatment of Korea and China should be a stark warning to us all. Now Japan is a leading member of our alliance. Prior to that, the Chinese were on our side. This is an ironic turn of events, the geopolitical forces that shape our region are concerning.

The forward operating bases are Australia’s first line of defence. The army is the largest force in terms of manpower, but really the weakest by terms of weaponry. We have limited artillery, armoured vehicles, main battle tanks and our missile defence is rudimentary. We have a limited army, if our shores were invaded, the army is the last line of defence. That capability is actually not all that capable, this is the defence of last resort.

So the air force, working in tandem with the navy is the main defensive structure protecting the Australian mainland. The air force will seek to destroy enemy shipping approaching Australia, the stealth and networking capabilities of the F-35 should first seek to destroy enemy shipping approaching Australian shores. Any attacking force would be airborne initially with naval support, that would include armour, artillery and mobile missile vehicles.

Australia has a vast interior, the potential to house long range missile defences far from the coast is vital to the Australian defensive structure. Sure, medium range missile defences need to be stationed closer to the coast, long range artillery to protect the major cities is not out of the question. This would be a major increase in capability, with the Himars system and the advantages of mobility are an improvement in defence capability. the proposed 500 km range is still very close to the Australian mainland.

The F-35 is the primary air defence aircraft, Australia has no strategic bombers, so fighter aircraft are the primary means of defence. The P-8 Poseidon is the primary maritime reconnaissance aircraft to identify naval assets The F/A-18F is the non-stealth aircraft, this fighter attack aircraft has been the main fighter aircraft in the air force for decades, supported by the EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft.

Heuer was a leading watchmaker in the chronograph sphere, so I was so surprised when I learned about the Manhattan Chronosplit GMT, this is something I would not want on my wrist. When I look at this design, I am utterly bewildered, what were they thinking at Heuer? People really carry on about TAG Heuer and how they have performed as a business, they show plenty of online vitriol, the Manhattan Chronosplit GMT is unfortunately all Heuer.

People really go silly for a 1970s watch, but this time, I am not seeing it. I am really not seeing it. This was the era of the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and the Patek Philippe Nautilus, these iconic designs were aiming for a new industrial styling. What Heuer was trying to achieve here is some futuristic model with no notion of what the future would actually look like. It is like a 1950s Hollywood version of the future, it certainly wasn’t that.

This watch has three hands for hours, minutes and seconds with a round dial in a hexagon shaped dial that has a digital LCD in the upper section. The crown for the analog watch is located on the bottom of the case, this is actually interesting for me. Keeping in mind that the Manhattan Chronosplit GMT was released in 1977, the trends of that era were well defined, I see this design as pretty out there. I realise that this is right in the middle of the quartz influence, watchmaking was in a stage of huge upheaval and new products and designs were needed. So it is easy to look back and question their design ideas and to be critical of their designs – maybe I am wrong here.