The Ukrainian forces have a sense of humour, this has been declassified and we see what they did for their Christmas and New Year holidays. According to reports, the Himars targeted Russian munitions stores. We are also aware that the vocational school in Makiivka used as barracks for Russian soldiers were also hit with Himars with even Russia admitting multiple deaths. 

Despite Russian claims that they have destroyed more Himars than has been delivered, there is some truth here as the Russian forces have blown up plenty of Himars decoys – this is not true. This is the long-range weapon that the Ukrainian forces rely on, the Ukrainians are so brazen with their most important weapon that they dress it up and send some presents off to the Russian invaders and film the action.

What is interesting is Ukraine made it look like they were attacking Kherson so Russia pulled troops and equipment out to defend Kherson leaving Kharkiv exposed and Ukraine launched those now infamous thunder runs to penetrate deep behind Russian lines. This is like a scene out of Mad Max in the post apocalyptic world, this is pretty wild, Ukraine is causing some major disruption to Russia.

Now just weeks later, they are going after Kherson too, so where did all that Russian defensive structure go? Russia planned poorly for the invasion of Ukraine, they thought this was 2014 again when they marched in pretty much unopposed to Crimea. The Obama administration, NATO and the rest of the world stood by, the messaging to Putin was clear.

The four years of the chaotic Trump administration was equally as indecisive, Trump undercut NATO and sent subliminal messages to Putin that NATO was indecisive, wracked with infighting and inconsequential. With US and NATO assistance, Ukrainian troops received NATO training, adapted NATO doctrine and tactics. The US and NATO were initially reluctant to supply modern weapons to Ukraine as it was thought they would soon collapse and modern weaponry would be captured.

Oh, how wrong everyone was. Ukraine put up an amazing fight, they defeated the Russian advance on Kyiv harassing the Russian forces back. Ukraine began winning on the battlefield with long range artillery and mobile rocket launchers. Russia held a long defensive line and repelled Russian advances around Kharkiv, they spread misinformation and prepared to attack Kherson. Russia was stretched and withdrew troops from Kharkiv to defend Kherson.

That’s when Ukrainian thunder runs exploded through Russian defensives in the east. In what looked like Mad Max intrusions, mobile Ukrainian troops hit multiple points of the front lines in small groupings looking for weakness and holes in the Russian defensives. Then they pulled back and looked for other areas of weakness, these were rapid incursions designed to cause panic. These guys are brave, recklessly so. In what was a bold move aided by western intelligence, small patrols of around 6 men crashed through the front lines causing havoc.

Once these thunder runs had commenced, further patrol followed them in and hit Russian defenders from behind. There was havoc as the Russian officers had already departed, there was panic as these men knew they had been left to die. At this point, their best option was to surrender as Russian prisoners were being treated well. The Russians needed to get out of there, they dropped their weapons and ran, they stole bicycles, vehicles and jumped on their vehicles and scattered.

The Russians left so quickly they left huge stockpiles of weapons, fighting vehicles, armour and intelligence infrastructure and materials. It soon became clear how poorly organised these defences were and how bad morale was. The mass surrender of Russian troops had the potential to derail the fast moving Ukrainian forces, they needed to stop, process and hold Russian POWs. Ironically, Russia is now the largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine, this offensive move was spectacular, Ukraine achieved far more than what I am guessing was the most optimistic predictions- Slava Ukraine.

I viewed an interview by Lieutenant Ilia Samoilenko of the Azov Regiment when they were held up in the Mariupol Steel Works in May 2022. He was interviewed by Sky News, it was looking very grim, they were not sure if they were going to survive, it was looking less than likely.

During the siege, Samoilenko became the spokesman for the Azov Regiment, taking interviews from deep within the steelworks. Samoilenko is highly educated studying history at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Lieutenant Samoilenko is well spoken, he firstly criticised politicians for not providing the regiment with enough weaponry and then went on to ask the global community for assistance – it worked.

Samoilenko joined the Azov Regiment in 2015 after the Russian invasion of Crimea and the ongoing insurgency in the Donbas region. Samoilenko lost his left arm and right eye when munitions exploded in his hand when he was on a mission in the eastern Donbas in 2018. Samoilenko rehabilitated himself and rejoined his comrades in the Azov Regiment as his goal to expel the Russian invaders from Ukraine had not yet been achieved.

Samoilenko’s statement during the siege of “we are taking losses, everyday might be our last.” He then followed up “as for now, the result of this might be our imminent death or capture by the enemy which also means death for us and the consequences of this might be very catastrophic for the Ukrainian defence and the Ukrainian state.”

Lieutenant Samoilenko also explained “Our lives mean nothing, but our fight means everything” and he did not see surrender as a realistic option. Regardless, he stated that they had not been ordered to surrender and they would not break orders. Lieutenant Samoilenko was forthright when he stated that they witnessed Russian war crimes and they would not be kept alive as these witnesses. Ultimately, they were ordered to surrender on May 16 by their commanders after a deal of sorts was reached.

I had been trying to follow Lieutenant Samoilenko after that surrender and evacuation, they were bused to the Olenivka detention centre in Donetsk, a region under control by the Russian backed separatists. I could not find any information on him or the regiment and was concerned, I had grave concerns he and his comrades would just disappear. They were then transferred to an undisclosed location in Russia where some are still imprisoned,

When the Olenivka detention centre housing Ukrainian prisoners of war were held including members of the Azov Regiment, I was pretty sure Russia was looking for a way of making the hated Azov Regiment disappear. There were 50 deaths from that explosion, naturally the Russian attempted to blame the explosion on a Himar missile strike claiming that the Ukrainian government was trying to kill their own soldiers.

The Russians claimed the Ukrainian government was trying to get rid of these fighters despite being national heroes. The international community did not believe these claims Samoilenko was then held for 120 days in solitary confinement, there have been claims the the Azov Regiment soldiers had been tortured by their Russian captors, currently Samoilenko is not making these claims. Lieutenant Samoilenko was released from captivity during a prisoner swap in September 2022 and reunited with his family. There are still members of the Azov Regiment imprisoned in undisclosed locations in Russia.

I have written previously about the Kadyrov TicTok troops supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine and I have been less than complimentary of their motives to serve the Putin regime. Chechnya has twice fought the Russians in recent history for independence from Russia and failed on both occasions. Despite a spirited uprising, their fight was eventually snuffed out by superior Russian numbers and firepower.

I am highly supportive of the Chechen fighters battling for the liberation of Ukraine. They share a common interest in defeating a brutal regime. Could this war lead to the break-up of the Russian Federation in a similar way the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, this is entirely feasible. When this Ukraine conflict has been won, I am hoping these battle hardened troops return to Chechnya to fight for independence from Russia.

Already the Russian sphere of influence is declining, the neighbouring countries show disdain to President Putin, the fear of Russian military action is reducing. Previously the regional power, the Ukrainians have shown the world that they will fight the Russian war machine, they are not merely holding out, they intend to eject every last Russian from Ukrainian territory.

This provides an opportunity for Chechnya, with Russian forces bogged down in this Ukrainian quagmire, they have neither the physical resources or manpower to crush another uprising from Chechnya. Whilst the Putin installed puppet in Ramzan Kadyrov stays at home to defend the Kremlin’s interests, losses of Chechen TicTok troops in Crimea after being hit with a Himars missile and major losses of Wagner Group troops in Bakhmut place greater strain on the TicTok troops.

With Russia engaged in a rout in Ukraine, the opportunity will again resurface where Chechnya can challenge Russian military power. First, Kadyrov has to be defeated, his hold on power in Chechnya is absolute and this is the problem. Whilst he is running around shirtless making mind-numbing propaganda videos, if the TicTok troops losses mount, then maybe an uprising can take hold.

The surrounding central Asian countries will soon be able to break free from Russian influences, what Ukraine has done is show Russia can be defeated. With Russia rapidly losing power and influence in Ukraine, resources are stretched, the sanctions are beginning to really bite. Hopefully Western nations can impose a stronger financial burden on Russia further damaging their economy and hampering their ability to wage military operations against their neighbours providing the opportunity for Russian neighbours to act and secure their security.

I watched the Volodymyr Zelensky address to the US House of Representatives just before Christmas, it was inspirational. Zelensky refused to flee Ukraine at the start of the Russian invasion. His now famous line of “I want ammunition, not a ride” reverberates strongly now.

So why did Zelensky leave Ukraine now? As Ukrainian President Zelensky needs to garner international support for Ukraine, there were some concerns regarding wavering US support. There was genuine concern that if the Republicans gained control of the House during the midterms the US would be forced to downgrade or even withdraw support for Ukraine. On first appearances, it looks like Zelensky has solidified united support from both sides of politics – this was required.

Just days before, Zelensky was at the front lines in Bakhmut, Zelensky presented a signed Ukrainian flag from the front lines with messages to the US Congress by the soldiers at the front line battling the Russian invaders. I struggle to believe that a terrorist nation can just invade a sovereign nation and the world fails to act. Yet that is what the Republican Party wanted to do; fortunately, they were embarrassed at the midterms and their control of the House evaporated. 

Walking into the House Zelensky received a standing ovation, that is a given, but the power and length of that standing ovation sent a clear message, Zelensky has earned united support. Ok, so what was offered? For the next year, Ukraine will receive $1.8 billion USD of military aid, this is not charity though. This is an investment in democracy, this stand against tyranny will ensure peace in Europe for a generation. I fully believe Ukraine will defeat Russia, in the beginning of this conflict I just hoped they could hold out, now I feel they will be victorious.

In a case that has pretty much divided Australian opinion, the sexual assault case brought against Bruce Lehrmann has been abandoned with no decision against the accused. Lehrmann has strenuously denied any sexual activity took place, Higgins was unable to prove her allegations in court. A mistrial was declared after one of the jurors consisting of eighth women and four men undertook personal research on false rape accusations and was discovered by chance.

Do I claim to know what happened in Linda Reynold’s office that night? I do not. Do I claim to have an opinion on either the veracity of Higgin’s accusations or of Lehrmann’s innocence or guilt? I do not. What I am doing is analysing the events leading up to the court case and the role of the media in this case. This is a case of trial by media, there has been an agenda throughout this whole affair and it is concerning.

So what do we actually know about this case? Brittany Higgins accused former political staffer Bruce Lehrmann after a boozy night out in Canberra where they both returned to Parliament House after hours. They entered the office of Minister Linda Reynolds where the alleged assault took place. Bruce Lehrmann was dismissed from his position for breaching security; interestingly, Higgins kept her job. This is uncontested, the facts have been tabled in the ACT court and reported in the media.

Brittany Higgins became the spokesperson for sexual assault in Australia, I very much doubt few people would have issues with preventing sexual assault in this country. The Australian #Me Too movement has become involved, The role of Lisa Wilkenson and her Logie speech forced a delay in the trial, this loss of the presumption of innocence for the accused.

The legal system is structured on a number of tenants. Firstly, the accused is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Depending on their risk to the community, the accused may be remanded in custody or granted bail – this is the job of the court. Secondly, there is admissibility of evidence, this is the standard of proof determining the importance of evidence in the proceedings and the gravity of matters related to the question.

Thirdly, there is cross examination by the defence to challenge and test the evidence in a contested legal matter. This is based on the precedence of Browne v Dunn (1893), the basis of this rule is fairness where a procecution cannot rely on evidence that is contradictory to the testimony of the witness without putting the evidence to the witness in order to allow them to attempt to justify the contradiction. So, if a prosecutor wishes to enter evidence, the opposing party has the right to raise the contention in court to challenge the evidence.

What happened to the prosecution [Higgins] made their case and the defense [Lehrmann] was afforded the opportunity to challenge the testimony given by Higgins and other prosecution witnesses. Outside the court, Higgins complained on camera that she had been subjected to cross examination and Lehrmann sat there detached. Lehrmann was not called as a witness in court, he had been questioned by police and later charged where he was required to make a statement. Well, this is what happens at trial, the prosecution has to outline their case and the defense has the right to cross examine the presented evidence.

The Russian TikTok soldiers of the Chechen Kadyrov forces make me laugh, they are horrible brutal people who torture and rape Ukrainian citizens in occupied areas. Any losses they suffer are not losses to anyone else, the more times their regiment is hit the better. 

So I laughed hard when they were busy doing their silly TikTok uploads and gave away their position. They actually gave away their position on TikTok, that is just insane. In an enormously funny response, Ukraine responded with a Himars missile attack, they then showed the aftermath of the missile strike on TikTok – ha ha. They were all disheveled and smashed up, well, that was the ones that were  still alive that is. I can barely believe these morons shared footage of themselves all shot up with dozens dead – they are absolute deadbeats. That will be less Kadyrov Chechen thugs to murder and torture the citizens of Ukraine. There are Chechen soldiers fighting for Ukraine as well, so I am not against Chechnya, but those Kadyrov thugs, happy to see them wasted on the battlefield.

At time of writing, we do not know who launched the drone attacks deep inside Russia, they hit bombers sitting on the runway and fuel storage facilities. I think the general consensus is Ukraine was behind this daring raid, they are certainly resourceful.

What we do know is some old Soviet era drones have been modified with small warheads attached. They flew around 700 km past Russian S-300 and S-400 air defense missile batteries. Ukraine is shooting down the vast majority of Russian missiles and drones, still some got through and took out electricity and water infrastructure. The Russian air defenses are clearly lacking, the S-300 and S-400 air defense batteries failed jn a spectacular manner.

What Ukraine cannot do is attack non-military targets in Russia, this will have the effect of building support for Putin. This is the exact opposite of what they want, attacking military targets in Russian territory should make every Russian in the country nervous. As long as they target airfields and military targets, this can keep Russians on edge as they are legitimate targets.

US and NATO weapons have been supplied on the proviso that they are not used to attack Russia, this has been honoured by Ukrainian leadership. The Ukrainians are a resourceful bunch, they are innovative and they are fighting for their existence. They cannot live under Russian occupation, this will result in the murder of Ukrainian citizens, we have seen this already. The sanctions do not go far enough, Russia should be bankrupted, they need to do what they need to do to ensure Russia collapses.

The war in Ukraine is going poorly, even Putin fanboys are having a difficult time explaining these devastating losses on the battlefield. I see lots of African and middle eastern commentators espousing their views in social media comments sections. I like a diversity of views and like to question my own views of the world. These guys are not increasing my diversity, they are just tools.

The loss of Kherson is the single biggest defeat for Russia, at the time of writing, Kherson was still under Russian control , but it is looking all but lost for Russia. Now this is a big statement as Russia has suffered one humiliating loss after another. This was the major regional capital under Russian control, these wins for Russia in the early days of the war are being eroded, they cannot hold on to their gains, instead converting them into losses.

There have been concerns that this is a trap, the Russians are trying to lure Ukraine into an ambush in Kherson. I am trying to work out from the luxury of my lounge room what Ukraine needs to do to not play into a potential Russian trap? From what I can work out, the Ukrainian forces are progressing cautiously, there does not appear to be many thunder runs going on, from what I can determine from the reporters in the region, this is the muddy season and offensive moves are limited.

There is the likelihood that offensive maneuvers will resume in the spring, it looks like autumn is a period of consolidation. There will be long range artillery and missile exchanges during this period. What Ukraine has successfully done is disrupt the Russian supply lines, with the logistical nightmare Russian soldiers are facing, they do not have warm uniforms, socks, boots or sleeping bags.

The Russians are slowly being eroded as a fighting force, they are demoralised and they might not hold up under severe winter conditions. What we have previously seen from Ukraine is a relentless charge, they fight smart, yes, they take losses, but this is expected to a degree against such a numerically superior force. They did not have the weapons or the equipment, but now they are being supplied with western weapons, they have turned this conflict around. There are claims we will see a victory for Ukraine before the end of summer 2023, I hope these commentators are right.

I laugh every time I view Russian propaganda shows on the Russian television network, they fully support Puin. They do not think Russian aggression against Ukraine is wrong, they believe they have the right to invade and subjugate Ukraine. The video upload complaints by freshly mobilised Russian soldiers is mostly to do with equipment complaints and a lack of payment. They are entirely happy to kill, rape and torture Ukrainians for money.

They have realised they are losing, so instead of accepting they are an inferior military, they are trying to change the narrative that they are fighting all of NATO and the United States. They would not last long in a conventional war against NATO, despite being out equipped and lacking in manpower, they are being significantly beaten by a numerically inferior force. The Russian doctrine was frozen in the 1960s, the modernisation calls for it have already been tried, the logistics is insufficient, the corruption is rampant and the training is non-existent. It would be funny watching them lose and then bleat online if Ukrainian lives were not being lost in the process.