The Elizabeth Quay project on the Perth foreshore is nearing the end of being a construction zone, the inlet has been flooded as the excavation has finished with some minor construction continuing. Whilst Elizabeth Quay will be officially opened on Friday, construction will continue for a number of years yet. When completed, this will be a major draw card for the city of Perth in terms of social and economic progress connecting the Swan River to the city.

Chevron, a major tenant has requested a two year delay to the tower to be constructed on the corner of Barrack Street and the Esplanade as the Gorgon and Wheatstone gas projects are behind time and budget. Chevron recently laid off 1500 workers on the construction phase of the project as the Western Australian economy stagnates, the state government has recently instigated a hiring freeze as the state unemployment rate rises to the highest levels in 13 years.

The major construction projects in the city have generated jobs but comes at a high cost to the state’s finances. With the state budget in disarray after the collapse of iron ore royalties and GST distributions, the construction phases look to wind down as the economic downturn is expected to bite even harder. The state government will pretty much have empty coffers with no new major construction projects planned due to state debt climbing past the $30 billion level unless alternate funding is procured. I’m also concerned major anchor tenants at Elizabeth Quay may further postpone construction due to economic conditions that are unraveling right now.

The women’s big bash league is now being televised on free-to-air television with their games being played as the pre-game entertainment to the men’s match later in the evening. The games are pretty good, their skills are excellent and they are very entertaining to watch. They are playing the same franchise teams as the men and have overseas import players ensuring the best talent is on show with developing local players with exposure to the world’s best women players.

The women are playing shorter boundaries, the average pace delivery is around the 100 kph mark so some women are wearing helmets when batting, others just front up in a cap as most deliveries are slow/medium. What they do well is swing the ball, it is argued the women swing the ball more than the men as the men’s greater pace  produces less swing. The women might be playing to near empty stadiums at the moment, that will change as their game is given greater exposure – these games are well worth watching.

I have heard plenty of discussions at work in regards to the sharemarket; the general consensus is this is a pure form of gambling with little to do with investing. They liken share selection to throwing darts at a dart board, they are quick to share tips on penny dreadlocks in much the same way tips are bandied around the race track with an in the know punter sprouting free tips.

Now let’s keep in mind these people undertake no research, no analysis and no strategy is utilised – indeed, they are gambling without a strategy. When you gamble, you own nothing but when you invest you own a small part of the company. Now we all know share prices fluctuate, this a market after all and if share prices rise every time then there is no downside risk. Yes, markets go down as well as up and a prudent investor needs to understand the factors affecting markets.

A number of factors need to be considered, the general economic conditions are paramount, a working knowledge of macro-economics is vital. This doesn’t mean sitting a formal course although this helps, for the first 20 years of my share trading and investing, my knowledge of macro-economics was gained from reading books. A working knowledge of fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rates is vital; the interactions of interest rates, balance of payments, inflation, commodity prices and unemployment all factor in general market decisions.

Then you need to look to individual company performance by looking at the earnings per share, price earnings ratio, dividend per share and dividend yields as a fundamental analysis. The company needs to be compared against other businesses within the sector for performance, no fundamental analysis is complete without some form of technical analysis.

Now I know a number of stockbrokers view charting as voodoo, but you really need to view the entire market and individual share price from a historical perspective to verify the trend. You might have determined through fundamental analysis the share you seek investment; for me, technical analysis is all about market timing as there is no value in buying in a market top or major downtrend. For me, it is better to wait for the trend to turn around as general market conditions improve or the factors affecting the downtrend such as commodity prices, competitive forces, supply chains or break-even points are addressed.

I like to look at the upper management and their performance, well managed businesses have shown long-term gains with current upper management teams that have succession plans in place. I prefer to not invest in companies with a history of management scandals, they set the strategy and direction of the company. Ben Graham in The Intelligent Investor famously stated “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” 

For me, a big difference exists in trading and investing. I once traded shares and I am now an investor in shares and other derivatives. There is a big difference in trading for a short-term capital gain and investing long-term for dividend yields; a capital gain is welcomed but not the primary investment factor. The preservation of capital is the primary investment factor with the dividend yield the secondary factor for investment decision-making.

Big hitting West Indian Chris Gayle lit up Ethihad Stadium with a masterful batting display of power and aggression for the Melbourne Renegades. In what was to be his last appearance in the BBL, Gayle left no doubt in anybody’s mind that he is not only a great talent but an excellent drawcard for T20 cricket – such a shame to lose him.

Gayle equaled Yuvraj Singh’s T20 batting record with a quickfire knock comprising of 2 . 6 6 6 6 2 6 6 4 1 and finally another towering 6 to bring up his half century as a no ball added another run to the total. Ironically Gayle declined a boundary side interview after his majestic knock, this is a disaster for Cricket Australia who have indicated Gayle will not be invited back to the BBL next year. Furthermore, Gayle’s legal action against the Fairfax Media Group could potentially reap him millions in lost revenue from cricket appearances and endorsements. Everybody is a loser after this poorly handled witch hunt.

The B-52 Stratofortress began service in the United States Air Force in 1955 as a long range heavy bomber during the cold war era. Despite being a sub-sonic aircraft, the super-sonic B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit have failed to replace the B-52 as a long range heavy bomber with the B-52 remaining in service. The cancelled B-70 Valkerie project, despite reaching speeds of mach 3 and an operating altitude of 70,000 feet failed to replace the B-52 as the front line strategic bomber.

The B-52 remains in service for a number of reasons, the aircraft has the ability to fly long range missions, loiter in an area just outside of the battle field before dropping precise weapons and is a robust aircraft that is reasonably cost effective to operate. The B-52 is expected to remain in service until 2045, an extremely long service life for not only a military aircraft but for any aircraft.

The B-52 can carry an array of weapons from nuclear to conventional; during the cold war the B-52 loitered at high altitude close to the borders of the former Soviet Union providing rapid first strike or retaliation capabilities as part of a three prong nuclear deterrence strategy. Amazingly, 742 B-52 aircraft have been built with a production run from 1954 to 1963. In comparison, 104 B-1 Lancer 21 and 21 B-2 Spirit stealth bombers were built ensuring the B-52 remains the most prolific aircraft in the heavy strategic bomber fleet.

After another stunning knock for the Melbourne Renegades, international T20 player Chris Gayle was pulled up boundary side and interviewed by Network Ten sports reporter Mel McLaughlin. While people will draw their own conclusions over Gayle’s remarks, I thought they were made in jest with a smile on his face. He livened up what was bound to be another boring interview.

Ironically, Mel is now taking on-air interviews over the incident becoming a bit of a celebrity herself, reporters will soon have a higher profile than the players. Others will call it sexist and while I disagree with them, that is their opinion. There was threats of booting him out of the BBL before he was fined $10,000 by Cricket Australia in what I thought was a purely reactive response.

Now Fairfax Media dredges up an old story from last year before the World Cup where it was alleged Gayle exposed himself to a woman in the change rooms after walking out of a shower after a training session. The incident was reported to team management at the time as the woman who was employed by the team claimed she was looking for a sandwich. Jumping on the bandwagon, Fairfax Media want a beat-up story to create media momentum to sell newspapers.

In a case of he said/she said, now another investigation will be conducted with the ICC taking a backward step not wanting to become involved. Gayle has had enough and has now stated his intention to sue Fairfax Media for defamation – yeah. So unless further witnesses suddenly appear or video evidence arises – there is no case.

Maybe Cricket Australia should yank all the mics from the players on the ground with all media releases to go through a team communications manager with no coaching or playing staff to front the media. The networks should lose their unlimited access to the players – they will no longer be able to do a hatchet job on players like Gayle.

This is an over-reaction for a sport trying desperately trying to attract women viewers, this is the first year of a televised women’s BBL and they don’t want to alienate potential women viewers. The women’s BBL is good and people will watch the league regardless – no need to make Gayle the fall guy for some off-the-cuff remarks made on the boundary line.

The new Perth stadium is starting to take shape, I catch the train past every day on my way to work and I am looking on eagerly as the train rattles past through the carriage window. Watching the project unfold is interesting, the sections are being built with 8 tower cranes located around the project and a bunch of crawler cranes working the centre field lifting the modular sections into place.

When finished, the Perth Stadium is going to be world class facilities located close to the city that will enhance not only sporting facility but should also be an excellent outdoor concert venue. While I have never been to a sporting event at the revamped Adelaide Oval, I see the facilities are probably the best in the country. That is a pretty big call as the MCG is an excellent facility in a larger city than Adelaide seating up to 100,000 people, the Perth Stadium will seat 60,000 people and has the potential to attract international sporting events.

The stadium project is about 1/3 completed, a new train station and lines is being built to service the stadium and a new pedestrian bridge hasn’t begun construction yet. The completion date is expected to be in early 2018 but most projects run over time so we will see if this stadium will be ready for the 2018 AFL premiership season.

The global financial crisis was devastating for so many people, job losses, housing foreclosures and for many of us – a major hit to our retirement accounts. Australia was reasonably insulated due to Chinese demand for our resources and while we did experience some economic pressure, we avoided a recession.

I’m not directly invested in the Chinese sharemarket, I don’t have a broker buying and selling on my behalf on the Shanghai composite index. I, like many Australians have a superannuation fund that is invested in China but unlike many, I do have a self managed superannuation fund invested in Australian shares. I do understand what a volatile Chinese market will do to my retirement account and I’m nervous.

2015 was a lousy year for Australian equities after 2012 – 2014 were a series of good years. Already the Chinese markets have been closed a number of times this year after the index fell 7% in a session, one day the market was only open for 14 minutes. I ask myself, will Australia be heading for a recession in 2016?

China is slowing down, the government is targeting a 7% growth rate after previous double figure growth; commodity prices are down. The price of oil has declined, quantitative easing is finished and currencies remain under pressure. Our last recession was 1991 and although we had some downturns along the way, we remained reasonable unscathed. A number of international triggers could see the world economy decline severely and our economy will be under sustained pressure.

From what I can tell, the Western Australian economy is already in recession, Queensland is another resource rich economy is under pressure. The South Australian and Tasmanian economies are perpetually in decline although New South Wales and Victoria have emerged from their slowdown in better shape than expected but could not weather the shocks of another international slowdown.

As 2016 roars to life, I am reflecting on the year that was 2015 – the year that burnt up all my time and effort as a part-time MBA candidate whilst holding down a full-time job. This was a miserable year, I wonder if this is all worth it. I had a great social life before, out to dinner in the city on a Friday night before hitting some bars, a party on Saturday night and after diving on a Sunday a get together with drinks around my place. Life was pretty good for me – that all changed.

I have been told that MBA stands for marriage breakdown ahead, as my social life descended into stagnation. My career was starting to stall, despite all my hard work, my efforts were going unrewarded. I was being out-maneuvered by a bunch of yes men intent on collecting credit for my hard work.

I needed an edge and I thought an MBA might provide me with that skill-set I need. Fortunately, where I work they don’t have a whole load of leadership ability and once I returned from three and a half months long service leave, I was able to counter some of their underhanded moves upon my return. There is, after all, no substitute for competence and I was easily able to showcase their short-comings.

I decided to throw my thoughts down along the way, what is the value of all this pain? Will this qualification land me the job I want? Considering I will be 47 in 2016 and won’t be completing this qualification until mid 2017, this is a risk. So far, all my job applications haven’t been successful in 2015 and I don’t see 2016 being much better as the state government has now enacted a hiring freeze to mid 2016.

You begin to fill with self doubt, just going out and getting a master’s degree doesn’t ensure success. You make a decision to take a tried and proven method to improve your earnings potential, yet I am beginning to feel this could be a big waste of time and money. This isn’t exactly a medical, engineering, accounting or law degree – you don’t require a business degree.

The year started with two units of accounting for leaders and economics principles and decision-making, that was just way too much with full-time work, I would rush home and begin reading and preparing case studies. I hardly slept during that period and thought I wasn’t going to make it through that 14 weeks.

The second trimester saw financial management, if that isn’t the most difficult unit on the course – I am in big trouble. That was seriously hard and I hope I have to never do anything like that again. Since I won’t be working on Wall Street corporate finance won’t be required, I can’t see a whole load of scope for that.

However, entrepreneurship forms a large part of many contemporary MBA programs and financing a start-up business idea. Marketing rounded the year out, it was an interesting unit and integral to well rounded knowledge. I really can’t see myself using finance all that much, I am more an operations guy, leadership is the leading skill-set I need.

2016 will begin with influencing and making decisions, then hopefully onto operations management and I hope to round the year out with project management. Phew, this is exhausting. What am I talking about, 2012, 2013 and the first half of 2014 was pretty much the same, 2015 was just a return to what I am used to.

After the Turks shot down the Russian Su-24 over Syria after allegedly entering Turkish territory, fears of WWIII were bandied around – I don’t think that is an issue. Russian president, action man and current world statesman Vladimir Putin is not going to take this but I don’t think direct military action with a NATO country – his economic sanctions will bite into the Turkish economy far greater than a bombing run into Turkish territory.

The Su-24 is a 1960s era all weather swing wing supersonic bomber similar in many regards to the General Dynamics F-111. It was a no contest when the Turkish F-16 engaged the aircraft, they are an air-superiority bomber, they are not designed to get into dog-fights even though they were designed during the era of the Vietnam war.

Instead of a declaration of war, Russia has announced economic sanctions against Turkey including a ban on imports, the end of charter flights between Russia and Turkey and a ban on Russian tour operators selling Turkish holidays. Furthermore, Turkish companies operating in Russia and Turkish nationals working in Russia also face restrictions. As Russia is Turkey’s second largest trading partner – these sanctions are going to bite.