I cannot claim to be the originator of this idea, the credit must go to Anne Applebaum, journalist and historian. Applebaum has written for The Spectator and The Economist, as well as The Atlantic magazine. Applebaum has a pretty decent resume from her roles on the Editorial Board of The Washington Post, and Senior Fellow at John Hopkins University. Regardless of her corporate success, a Pulitzer Prize always enhances credibility.

Whilst Vladimir Putin has made so many erroneous claims regarding his invasion of Ukraine in 2022 from CIA bioweapons laboratories the Donbas region, the Ukrainian NAZI lie, protecting Russian speakers in Donbas, demilitarisation, genocide in Donetsk and Luhansk, and of course NATO expansion. The Putin regime has been invading neighbours for an extended period, the international acceptance of the Crimean annexation gave him hope, Putin thought he could invade Ukraine and Western nations would be unable to act, and just have to accept this loss.

What Applebaum has claimed does have plenty of support, whilst I do not necessarily believe this is the primary reason, this certainly has merit. I believe Putin wants to restore the glory of the Soviet Empire that collapsed in 1991. Naturally, this was glory for Moscow and St Petersburg, not for the neighbouring countries all the way to Poland, Czechia, Hungary, and Slovenia. The people who lived under Soviet rule were not interested in a return to Russian domination and the erosion of their rights or hard earned economic stability.

NATO has expanded, and expanded East but not because NATO wants to encroach on Russian territory. But because Eastern European nations are threatened and require protection for their citizens, their democracies, and their way of life. They know they will lose all their rights again under an expanded Russian Empire that would rival the Soviet Union. Western Europe needs to increase their military capabilities again, they were lazy after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and should have immediately begun rebuilding their militaries in 2022.

What Applebaum is claiming is that Putin invaded Ukraine because they now have a thriving democracy and the idea could take off in Russia. She frames her argument as an existential conflict between the democratic and authoritarian worlds. In this regard, her idea certainly has merit, one only needs to look at Russian allies and partners including Belarus in Europe, China, and North Korea in Asia, Iran in the Middle East, and Venezuela in South America.

Applebaum claims the Ukrainian government falling would reinforce dictatorships globally. At a local level, Russians may start asking that if Ukraine can successfully transition to a free and prosperous democracy, then why can’t Russia? Putin sees free elections, the rule of law, and European integration as deeply dangerous to his regime, for that reason alone, Putin has reason to worry.

In the early days of the Ukrainian invasion, Russian death squads entered Kyiv searching for Zelensky seeking to execute Zelensky. For his part, Zelensky stayed in Kyiv and gave his personal credibility a huge boost, if Zelensky departed, the Ukrainian government may have fallen and Russia had their speedy invasion plans realised. Putin wanted to replace Zelensky with the wealthy leader of the pro-Russian party, Viktor Medvedchuk, who is accused of treason and now residing in Russia.