I am still trying to get my head around this latest Donald Trump fiasco, only the dumbest MAGA devotee cannot see this ceasefire for what it is, a victory to Iran. The centrepiece of the negotiations is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, wow, that is to take the gulf back to the pre-war position.

But with this negotiation, Iran has been strengthened in their bargaining power and positioning. Iran was never going to win a head-to-head encounter with the US military, their strategy is to hold on and bleed the United States. Iran did this effectively, they shot down some fighter jets and helicopters. Even more importantly, they destroyed aircraft sitting on US Air Force bases deep inside allied countries where they thought they were safe. Clearly, they were mistaken, the US lost some very expensive military assets here.

The longer Iran held on, the greater their bargaining power, Trump was desperate to do a deal, this is the terminology he employs and a well established negotiation tactic is a deadline. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the greater the international pressure becomes. Then their are internal issues, the US economy is under pressure, the Dow Jones and NASDAQ is under pressure. Inflation and fuel costs are rising, and then there is the looming mid-term elections.

Trump knows his popularity is low, even he can see that. He goes to a basketball game and gets booed in New York, he thought he would be cheered, but fortunately he fell asleep after not too long, so missed the opportunity to have the rich people in New York turn on him. Sure, the poorly educated in the lower socio-economic red states with their MAGA caps on, and confederate flags flying still cherish Trump, they are the last group to work out his policies are hurting them. This was a deal, from the self professed dealmaker lose all credibility on the international stage handing a great victory to Iran.