From what we are learning, I think it is increasingly unlikely Ukraine will mount an invasion of Crimea anytime soon. This is because they don’t need to, instead they are cutting supply to Crimea, effectively starving the peninsula from effective resupply.

There are a couple of routes into Crimea, firstly there is the Kerch Bridge from Russia where supplies are brought in directly. The Kerch Bridge has been hit a couple of times, yes the bridge is still standing but cargo transfer across the bridge is reduced. We all know about the fuel shortage in Crimea and the long loans for fuel, this is because of the Kerch Bridge issues and the land corridor. Any supporters of Ukraine want to see the Kerch bridge destroyed, it has been threatened, but the spans have not yet fallen into the water, it will eventually happen, but when?

Then there are the bridges from Ukraine, the Chongar Bridge has been hit numerous times connecting Crimea to the Kherson region along with the Henichesk Bridge. This has forced the Russians to reroute further along the M-17 Highway across Armyansh causeways. Armyansk and Perekop Crossings are not bridges, but land corridors connecting northern Crimea to southern Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent confirmed a strike on the bridge destroying 50 military vehicles on June 11.

So why is this an issue? The longer route ensures trucks carrying supplies are further exposed to Ukrainian attacks, and they are getting hit. These are causeways that have been heavily targeted by Ukrainian forces and we are seeing logistics issues in Crimea for not just the military, but the population there too. With the mid-range drones Ukraine is now employing, trucks travelling through occupied Ukraine are being picked off, the advantage is moving to Ukraine, they will not risk an invasion with their limited manpower, they will instead target Russian logistics and the ability of Russian commanders to resupply their forces attacking Ukraine.