The official state visit of US President Donald Trump to China had already raised concerns even before his flight touched down. The bilateral attack on Iran would feature high on Trump’s agenda. There are some tankers allowed transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a number bound for China.

The concern is the ad hoc and undisciplined approach of the Trump presidency including the late night and early morning tweets on his social media platform. What an administration requires is predictability and reliability, Trump offers neither. Nor is Trump playing three dimensional chess as his supporters claim, a staffer once famously leaked that they are flat out trying to stop him from eating the pieces. Given the recklessness shown in the Iranian attacks and the inability to foresee or plan for Iranian forces blocking the Strait of Hormuz, his judgement is seriously questioned.

So what are the concerns related to the China state visit? Firstly, there is the independence of Taiwan, given Trump’s predictability to listen to the last person he spoke to, President Xi will cherish the ability to talk directly to Trump. Given Trump’s child-like admiration of autocrats and authoritarians, Trump is likely to be persuaded by Xi Jinping if he appeals to Trump’s ego. Any mention of a change of long-term US policy will likely be seized upon by Chinese leadership, this will have significant impact on Taiwan’s independence and self defence.

Whilst Trump believes he is respected by world leaders, the exact opposite is true, these world leaders hold him in contempt. They know Trump is easily manipulated and changes his mind frequently, these leaders know he can be compromised and will attempt to gain favour with him based on his lack of direction and morals. Red carpet on arrival, lavish state dinners and meetings massaging his ego is likely to score concessions. They know Trump is a big talker on social media, once they get to him in a face-to-face setting, they know they can get results and concessions. They know a TACO backdown is easily negotiated, all they need to do is appeal to his enormous ego.