The Ukrainian bait and bleed strategy

I follow the Ukraine war very closely, now as we enter the fifth year I am looking at Ukrainian tactics on the battlefield. Early on, Ukraine was able to take territory back in an amazing counter-offensive. Had the Biden Administration been less timid and provided Ukraine with more offensive weapons, I believe these Ukrainian gains after the breakthrough to be greater. Now, we have a fairly static frontline with both sides consolidating gains. So now I am looking at current Ukrainian defensive tactics to hold the frontline.

What Ukraine cannot do is mass troops and assets on static World War One trench style defense structures. Russia has massive artillery assets, whilst the Russian artillery is firing less than what they did in 2022, this is still a formidable weapon and Russia has a fully structured war economy to produce shells. Likewise, Russia has lost an amazing amount of main battle tanks. Yes, the Russians have had significant tank losses, yet there is still much to be feared with Russian tanks so Ukraine needs to neutralise this threat. Russia still has a significant manpower advantage and seems to be happy to try to overwhelm Ukrainian positions with meat wave attacks.

So what is the Ukrainian frontline tactics, we know that Ukraine does not have the troops and resources to stretch thin in a classic trench style defence structure. So instead, Ukraine utilises a trap and bleed strategy. So, how does this strategy work? Ukraine sets the trap by using smaller teams leaving strategic gaps on the frontline with small mobile teams that are well trained in ambush style tactics, although this is not a textbook ambush. As Ukraine cannot fully defend the frontline in a traditional sense, they deliberately create weak spots in their lines to entice Russian advances in a specific location where they hunt down Russian advances.

These strategic weak spots lure Russian assault squads typically around 35 – 50 dismounted troops into an area. These deliberate weak spots use ditches, mines, concrete obstacles such as dragon teeth slow and stop tracked and armoured vehicles to funnel the enemy into specific locations, that is typically a choke point. This leaves these assault squads fewer options, they can spread out and lose mass, this is typically not their tactics. They can attempt to move through the obstacles resulting in time loss and potentially needless losses, especially when armour is involved. or they could follow an unimpeded path. This is actually a fairly common ambush tactic that has been refined by the circumstances.

The Ukrainians utilise a lack of mass and dispersed resources including manpower to hold the frontline. Instead, Ukraine uses small mobile squads to prevent targeting of artillery, drone teams or mortars for close fire support. They are not there to dig in and engage in a small arms defence of territory, they are not using trenches as a defence strategy on these frontlines now, they need to be able to maneuver and counter-attack immediately. These are mobile teams using fire and maneuver tactics

Instead, these teams offer small arms resistance to make it look like they are defending the positions before immediately retreating. They already have a retreat plan in place, they know exactly how and when they will retreat. We all know the Ukraine war has now transitioned into a drone war, the Russians have drones too. The Ukrainians are using extensive surveillance drones, they know exactly where the Russian troops are moving and the positions they are taking up.

The Ukrainians want to make it look like they are fleeing, abandoning their positions and giving up territory. They actually allow Russia to take up their positions in a predictable tactic, whilst Russian mil-bloggers are reporting to the Russian population that Ukrainians are fleeing, this is a tactical retreat. However, what the Ukrainians cannot do is allow Russia to reinforce these positions with armour and further troops. So, instead, they need to immediately counter-attack once the Russian assault teams are in position. With Elon Musk finally shutting down Starlink terminals for Russians, they are struggling with communication issues.

Once the Russians have moved into the previously held Ukrainian territory, the Ukrainians counterattack using mortars for mobile close fire support, artillery for longer range actions and loitering FPV kamikaze drones or munitions [bomber] drones. As Ukraine previously held the territory, they know the exact coordinates where the Russian teams have moved into, the actual terrain and conditions the Russians face. They do not move into a small arms firefight where they can absorb losses. The whole Ukrainian strategy is flipping the script by cancelling Russia’s manpower advantage by preserving the lives of Ukrainian troops.

Iran is seeking to outlast the United States

I am reading through the Iran war news, this is a bilateral offensive coordinated between Israel and the United States and did not involve negotiation with other allies. Professor Michael Clarke on the UK Sky News program summed it up for me stating “This is a war searching for a strategy” pretty much nailed it. Trump as the pseudo strongman can revert to military action, yet the objectives are not clear so we are headed for an economic threat in the region where Iran will target Gulf nations to pressure the United States externally.

We all know US President Donald Trump changes his claims daily, he is a perfect example of the Trump playbook of unpredictability and inconsistency. Donald Trump cannot articulate a strategy, Trump typically changes his mind, attempts to attack an individual for asking relative questions and engages in classic narcissistic behaviour. It has been argued the Trump strategy is deflection, denial, and blame and we are seeing the Trump strategy of volatility, indecisiveness and haphazard goals.

The Iranian regime knows the longer they hang in there, the more economic pressure is exerted externally on the White House from affected nations. This is not only the Gulf nations, this is every nation affected by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian leadership knows the US mid-terms are coming and they are well aware they could devastate the Republican Party the longer this war drags on, so there is internal pressure building in the United States.

Fermoy Estate Reserve Chardonnay

I have reviewed the Fermoy Estate Reserve Chardonnay previously, but since I have a few bottles stashed away, I get to revisit this wine from time to time. Different occasions sometimes reveal different flavours and notes, there is also the cellaring complexity that improves fine wine.

So, on Australia Day 2024, a bottle of 2018 Fermoy Reserve chardonnay was opened. These days, there is no need to pop the cork, a simple screw cap twist is all that is needed. Ok, so what did we taste? The wine was crisp, yes there was subtle oak flavours but the oak did not overpower this wine. The current trend is for lighter more refined oak on chardonnay, I must admit I do enjoy old style chardonnay so I have had to readjust my tastes.

The malolactic fermentation process resulted in subtle lees, described as subtle oak char with gunsmoke flavours. The wine is refreshed by grapefruit, fig and nectarine. They also describe toasty flavours and hints of wood smoke. Whilst this description is far more advanced than mine, I like to review tasting notes so I can try to pick the flavours without being overly influenced. Ultimately, you know what you like and you may be willing to pay a premium for what you would consider an above average bottle of wine, that is where I am right now, I am happy to pay a premium for the Fermoy Estate Reserve Chardonnay.

Zelensky has the cards after all

Well, what a turn of events, Operation Epic Fury is well underway, you can absolutely bet Iran is getting hit hard here. I can understand Israel going into Iran, they are an existential threat to the survival of Israel. This is where Israel sees weakness, Trump was happy to move on Venezuela and kidnap Nicolás Maduro where Russia barely whimpered. China showed annoyance, but really did nothing either.

Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine, they really have not too many resources to share, Assad was routed from Syria, Iraq has not been a problem for some time, Gaza is under control, and Lebanon, whilst still providing some issues, is not the threat they once were. Ok, that is the basic thinking of Benjamin Netanyahu, he sees weakness in Iran and the supporters of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were unlikely to come to his aid. United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Iran was a week away from creating a nuclear bomb, he is just one of President Trump’s New York real estate nepo mates promoted beyond his competence.

The US military has been firing tomahawk missiles into Iran from ships in the Gulf and from aircraft, they have expended a serious volume of munitions. So too has Israel, they have taken out air defence systems for air superiority in Iran so non-stealth aircraft can fly into the country. So Iran has been responding, firing missiles and drones into neighbouring Gulf states. The United States has lost a $500 million THAAD radar system, missiles are expensive and so too are interceptor missiles. At around $4 million per interceptor missile, the cost benefit analysis to shoot down a $40,000 Shahed drone just does not add up.

When Shahed drones are raining down on US bases in the Gulf, the Dubai and Qatar airports are shut down and getting hit. These Gulf countries cannot sustain having their airports and industries shut down and are understandably upset. We all know who the experts are in neutralising Shahed drones. All of a sudden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being asked to send teams and resources to defend the Gulf countries because of the actions of Donald Trump.

Zelenskyy has read the room well, he stated he will not deplete Ukrainian defences and within ten days of the Iran war starting, he has advisors and anti-drone systems to protect the Gulf nations. The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are all taking financial hits and do not want a prolonged war with Iran and want the White House to end military operations as soon as possible. Zelenskyy will have a fantastic bargaining leverage when this military action is over, he came to the aid of the United States and the Gulf nations when they needed him, one hopes this good faith will be recipropricated.

The denials fool nobody

In what was clearly a tragedy, the targeting of the girl’s school in Iran must be properly investigated. These young lives lost is a national tragedy, even during a time of war. I am no fan of the theocracy in Iran, they suppress the population, the murder and destroy the lives of the inhabitants.

I am certainly not asserting the United States intentionally targeted the school, it was likely an error where outdated intelligence identified the school as still part of the Iranian military installation. What is known is the US was operating in the area, this was not an Israeli operation, they were operating in the north of the country. It was likely a tomahawk missile, they are highly accurate so the intelligence used for the targeting was incorrect, this is what needs to be reviewed and rectified.

What annoyed me was the utter indifference of Donald Trump on Air Force One, totally dismissive and attempted to blame Iranian forces. Then there is Steve Witkoff”s dull look in the background, just a nepo appointment. I cannot say I am a fan of Pete Hegseth, but at least he had enough awareness to state an investigation was underway. We all know Trump is a pathological liar. Hegseth did not want to be caught up in Trump lies, but did not want to contradict Trump on camera on Air Force One. He knows what just happened to Kristi Noem, so he does not want to be next.

The Iranian offensive has begun

I was surprised, United States President Donal Trump stated that the Iranian nuclear program was obliterated during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. Donald Trump is not famous for making factually correct media statements though, considering a nuclear development program was obliterated just over eight months ago, this is an amazing rapid rebuild.

The planning and execution of Operation Midnight Hammer was impressive, there is no doubting the preparation and execution of the US military. They have war plans developed, the US military has reach throughout the world, even though the B-2 is based in the United States, refueling aircraft and escorts are needed, they used the F-35 fighter jets in the raid. Naturally, everyone knew Donald Trump was lying, he never gives factual information. Only the truly MAGA faithful will believe what Donald is selling. So, where does this leave us?

The first week of the Iranian offensive saw an amazing volume of munitions deployed. The Finnish President Alexander Stubb estimated the air defence operations cost $40 billion USD. Ironically, this is more than the entire European spending on Ukrainian defences in an entire year. What we have learned is this is costing the United States big dollars, they are using expensive weapons to shoot down cheap Iranian drones. Iran has been firing missiles and drones in all directions, they have hit neighbours and even had a crack at Turkey and Cyprus, the gulf nations are feeling the pain.

It would appear that Israel really pushed this action, this is pretty much a bilateral operation between Israel and the United States. The initial raid was impressive, the intelligence to take out the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei in his bunker. The operation to assassinate Ali Khamenei was impressive, whilst we will unlikely to exactly learn how he was assassinated in the short term, we expect it was a combination of human sources, cyber warfare, and intelligence gathering.

What we have learned is Israel hacked the Tehran traffic camera network to track bodyguards. Mossad was able to build files on Khamenei’s bodyguards, they knew their work schedule, and schedules. The Israeli operation to plan and execute the bunker buster bombing of the Iranian leadership, this is a positive for the Iranian population, they are living under hard and hostile conditions. Hopefully the Iranian people will eventually be liberated from the theocracy.

The Flakpanzer Gepard in Ukraine

The Flakpanzer Gepard is designed to provide mobile air defense coverage for ground units against low-flying aircraft and helicopters. The Flakpanzer Gepard is an air defence module that is built on the frame of the Leopard I main battle tank. The self-propelled anti-aircraft gun [SPAAG] is a mobile air defence system well suited for defending the skies and cities of Ukraine.

Armed with two 35 mm Oerlikon KDA autocannons with a combined rate of fire of 1,100 rounds per minute, this anti-aircraft weapon is perfect for Ukraine. The 35 mm Oerlikon KDA autocannon features a twin belt feed system for different ammunition types. The KDA is a variant of the Oerlikon autocannon introduced in the 1950s. The KDA valiant is designed for self-propelled anti-aircraft gun applications, so we are seeing a relatively old and proven design used to provide a reliable defence system.

A twin feed system for high-explosive [HE] rounds against aircraft and armor-piercing [AP] rounds against armored vehicles. Different Oerlikon autocannon include the KDB, a single belt feed anti-aircraft mount that is lighter and more compact design with a standard belt length of 56 rounds, the KDC is a single feed model that feeds from 7 round clips. The KDE is designed for infantry fighting vehicles that could be magazine fed or connected to a feed system.

The Flakpanzer Gepard was designed back in the 1960s and introduced into the German military in the mid 1970s. The Gepard has been upgraded over the years and is now equipped with independent surveillance and tracking radars to detect and engage targets. The Gepard uses a back-up optical sighting system for passive target acquisition and engagement. The German military has phased out the system and sent 50 refurbished units to Ukraine who have used these systems to great effect.

Yes, Ukraine is hit with Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles fired from Tu-22M3 bombers, MiG-31K interceptors or some upgraded Su-34 fighter/bombers. Then there is the Zircon Russian Navy scramjet-powered cruise missile that also targets Ukrainian cities. The patriot air defence system takes care of these threats, I am discussing the relatively slow moving Shahed-136 drone. Wasting patriot missiles on the swarms of these drones is a terrible waste of resources or air-to-air missiles. This is where the Gepard air defence system takes out these drones, the Ukrainians are experts at developing and refining new techniques and tactics and will continue to innovate.

A quick look at the Penfolds Bin 28 shiraz

These days are well behind me now, we would be with the family drinking and we would open two bottles of Penfolds shiraz. One would be Bin 28, the other would be a Bin 128 so we could put the two shiraz up against each other, one was big, the other was smooth.

The Bin 28 was the smooth shiraz, the very first bin release with 100% of the shiraz sourced from the Kalimna vineyard in the Barossa valley. These days the fruit is sourced from multiple vineyards, now fruit is sourced from Barossa Valley, McLaren Vale, Padthaway, Clare Valley, and Wrattonbully. The colour is deep red with blackcurrant and blackberry flavours, chocolate overtones and soft oak nuances.

The Bin 28 was developed during the Max Schubert Grange project in the late 1950s, the Bin 28 was first released back in 1959. The Bin designation at Penfolds was based on a grape variety and location system used by the winemakers at Penfolds winery to track their inventory. I would view cellering the Bin 28 for only medium term, the tannins are soft and smooth so I don’t believe the Bin 28 should be cellared long term.

Organisational development and training and development

I was seeking to break into organisational development from training and development; I needed to begin with accurately defining what organisational development actually is. So I began undertaking some research into organisational development and I was surprised about the lack of definitive information regarding the term.

What I came up with after some research is organisational development is a planned, organisational-wide effort increasing organisational effectiveness and efficiency enabling the organisation to achieve strategic goals. When I was employed at a government training institution; the corporate world places training and development within the sphere of human resources. Organisational development is also linked to change management processes working together with frontline managers, middle managers and upper management.

This makes the human resources process infinitely more interesting – this is the natural procession from training and development. Now I am back employed in the private sector again, organisational development and the management of development programs is the next stage of evolution. Getting stuck in human resources was of no interest to me, I work in safety too, but I do not want to be attached to a human resources department that really does not have a safety focus, more of a compliance process. Embedding safety into organisational learning programs is more of interest to me.

The Omega Planet Ocean or TAG Heuer Aquaracer?

I was reading a review comparing an Omega Planet Ocean against a TAG Heuer Aquaracer and I was intrigued, these are two timepieces separated by more than price. I would be more inclined to compare the Seamaster Diver 300 against the Aquaracer although that still isn’t an equal comparison.

I was even more surprised to read the reviewer’s opinion suggesting the Aquaracer as his watch of choice. We are naturally entitled to our opinions but I tend to disagree with their review. I would own a Planet Ocean over an Aquaracer in a second given the opportunity although I do like wearing the Aquaracer. Price is always a factor, the Aquaracer is by far a less expensive watch, but prices are creeping up, the TAG Heuer boutique wants to increase prestige.

The Planet Ocean has the superior movement, the in-house automatic is co-axial with a 60 hour power reserve. The TAG Heuer uses either an ETA 2824-2, a 25 jewel or Sellita SW 200-2, a 26 jewel movement with a 38 hour power reserve. There is really not much of a comparison between the ETA or Sellita movements, the Sellita is based on the ETA 2824-2 base, just an extra jewel and the finishing generally isn’t as good. Both ETA and Sellita are solid and a proven design, the Calibre 8900 in-house is a whole new level.

I have an Aquaracer, but not a Planet Ocean. I had the chance to purchase one at a good price and I made a huge mistake as I did not like the orange bezel. I have tried on plenty of Planet Ocean over the years and loved it. The big difference is the bracelet, the pin and retainer sleeve of the TAG Heuer is cheap, there is no other comparison, the Planet Ocean has screw type retainers, a much better, and more expensive option. The pressed diver extension of the Aquaracer feels cheap, the Planet Ocean uses proper screwed links, so much better.

The Planet Ocean has a retail price of $12,500 whilst the Aquaracer is $6,500 so there is a significant price difference here. The Planet Ocean has a 45 mm case diameter whilst the Aquaracer is 42 mm, both are big, but the Planet Ocean is seriously big. The Planet Ocean has 600 metre depth rating whilst the Aquaracer is 300 metre, still pretty good. Naturally, it depends on both budget and perceived value, the Planet Ocean is the better quality but is it worth almost nearly double the price?