As the fighting rages in the Donbas region, is Russia taking heavy losses? Media reporting would tend to indicate that it is, what is supporting my views is Russian forces are not making any gains either. Ukraine is at least holding ground and possibly making some inroads into regaining some of their lost territory – they are fighting back effectively. 

Whilst it would seem imperative Ukraine is taking back ground, locking down Russian forces and denying further advances is pretty good at this point. Yes, we would all like to see the Russian invades chased out of the country, locking Russian forces into a defensive strategy. Given their logistics problems, if Ukraine can disrupt their supply lines they can not get fuel, food and ammunition then they can be cleaned up.

Whilst Ukraine has ceded control of Maripol to Russian forces, this dogged resistance has locked down Russian assets that could not be deployed to the Donna’s region. Now that Maripol has been taken, a smaller occupying force will be left in place with forces moved to shoring up Donbas defensive areas. There is discussions that Russian moral is low, they are exhausted and they are running low on equipment and munitions. 

It appears Russia is not engaging in offensive tactics after the bungled Donbas River crossing. I am reading that Russian troops are disobeying orders as they are aware their commanders are just treating them as expendable canon fodder. Mothers and wives are asking questions in Russia, they want to know where their sons and husbands are, they are protesting out in the open.

When viewing a high end chronograph, the Rolex Daytona is highly sought after, they are next to impossible to purchase from an authorised dealer. This is ironic, when the Daytoma was initially released back in 1963, it was not a success, they wouldn’t sell. Now though, purchasing a Cosmograph Daytona [if you can get one] is going to set you back the price of a decent motor vehicle. 

This is amazing how this has changed, the Rolex Daytona is very much collectable, I have tried one on when I was in Hong Kong in 2017. Mostly when I visit a Rolex boutique, there isn’t much chance to try on a Cosmograph Daytona, they are pretty scarce, don’t expect a discount.    

An oystersteel starts at around $18,000 AUD, that’s really stainless steel to the non-Rolex buyer. An oystersteel and yellow gold starts at $24,600 AUD before the price really starts to head north. A yellowgold is $46,350 AUD in basic form, white gold isn’t much more at $48,050 along with the everose gold with a platinum version with price on request. 

So, a little searching on the Chrono24 website, starting around $160,000 AUD right up to $220,000 AUD with a version with Arabic numerals replacing the hour index at $417,916 AUD. This outrageous, precious metal Cosmograph Daytona will set you back a pretty decent motor vehicle or a sizable deposit on a property.

Navigating around the Zenith webpage, a Ref 03.3100.3600/69.M3100 El Primero Chronomaster Sport retails for $14,300 AUD, not cheap by any stretch of the imagination, but well priced as compared to the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona. A ceramic bezel insert really accentuates the dial, the three sub-dials are coloured in a unique dial styling. The 41 mm case is fitted with a stainless steel bracelet, a fabric strap is also available with a triple folding clasp but I prefer the steel bracelet version. 

Ok, so what do you get movement wise? A column wheel chronograph with a power reserve of 60 hours. The El Primero movement is iconic, the 60 hour power reserve is pretty decent considering the 36,000 vph [5 Hz] frequency. The 1/10 th of a second chronograph has a central counter making a revolution every 10 seconds, a small seconds counter at the 9 o’clock position, a 60 second counter at 3 o’clock and 60 minute counter at the 6 o’clock position. I would certainly consider the Zenith Chronomaster Sport as an alternative to a Rolex Cosmograph Daytona.

I am fascinated by both the definition and application of leadership and how leadership is applied in the workplace. Sue Desmond-Hellmann makes a very valid point, great leaders act like themselves on a daily basis, I am a firm believer that leadership can be taught as not everyone is a born leader. This is why tertiary institutes have leadership programs, this is an important facet of a program.

Great leaders have self-doubt, great leaders have fear just like everyone else, they start to question themselves. However, great leaders have the ability to overcome self-doubt and potential self-destruction to influence team members in positive interactions to maximise team performance. Self-doubt is healthy, it makes you question yourself, your motives and your abilities to create positive outcomes for team members.

Leadership is a political game, leadership is persuasion and the best leaders are very persuasive relating to team members in a way that influences team behaviour. Likewise, networking is important to widen their scope and increase offers for future advancement even if they are not looking right now but never more important than team relationships.

It has been argued that leaders in progress are well supported by managers and team members alike but as they start to reach expectations they become unpopular. I tend to disagree with this view as I notice new leaders try to stay grounded to remain part of the crew they were recruited from. As the pressures of the job start to weigh on them and they have to make unpopular decisions, this support will subside if they are unable to effectively communicate with team members.

This is fine as this is a natural progression in the role, what especially grates on former team members is when the promotion goes to their heads and they start to believe they are special and better than everyone else. This has a negative effect on the team, it is a misuse of both power and trust with detrimental consequences for the team, the best thing in my opinion is to return the person to their former position and search for a new leader either internally or externally.

So, I deal with a bunch of predictable idiots, they are pretty easy to read and just as easy to apply countering tactics to. Basically, you apply a loose concept of game theory and predict moves, you have already generated your counter moves, so you know your next move based on their previous move. It really is not that difficult, they are that easy t read, they are one dimensional and static. 

They are fun to negotiate with, their default answer is NO, their default move is blocking and obstruction, and their base strategy is to combine these strategies so people get fed up and ultimately give up in despair. So I document the entire chain of events, I not only save emails, I scan and save in pdf format in event grouped files. This is important for later, you need to recall these important communication for later – you always need this back-up. 

Naturally, I don’t give up, now I can make these old arguments disappear for a while, they believe their strategies have been successful, then I can make these issues reappear at opportunistic times, they are exasperated., But if they are stupid enough to not resolve the issues when they occur, then they deserve to continually revisit these problems. It really isn’t  that hard, it shouldn’t be this way, but it is. 

The Public Interest Disclosure Act 2003 is very clear here, you cannot take detrimental action against a person who has made, or intends to make a disclosure [14. (2) (a)] . Nor can they incite another person to commit that offence [14. (2) (b)] as a $24,000 fine or 2 years imprisonment is a pretty big deterrent [14 (1)]. 

Ok, so where does that leave individuals seeking to make a disclosure? Well, proceedings in tort under subsection (1) may be undertaken against the perpetrator of an act of victimisation. Proceedings may be dealt with under the Equal Opportunity Act 1984 under Section 67 of the Act. They need to be careful here, a tort is a civil wrong and the $24,000 could indeed be the cheap option for some of them. 

Right, so individuals need to be calm here and document everything, Section 8. (2) states that a proper authority may refuse to investigate or discontinue an investigation if it is considered that (a) the matter is trivial or (b) the disclosure is vexatious or frivolous and this would be their most likely strategy. Documentation is the key to their survival here, if every action is documented, it is defendable – including timelines. 

Individuals should be very careful here, a person purporting to be a disclosure of public interest information knowing it to be false or reckless also commits a crime and faces a $12,000 fine or 1 year imprisonment. So, they need to ensure they are not looking to make a misleading statement, or one that can be dismissed as frivolous or vexatious.  

Regardless, the last thing they would want is proceedings in the Equal Opportunity Commission to test this defense where all the news outlets are in attendance and this issue is played out in a public forum on the record. Of course that’s not going to happen as I am not going to take them there as despite their shortcomings, I see them as a rational negotiator. 

We were looking to head to the Italian restaurant next door, I had been looking at this Indian restaurant for a while now but my parents prefer the safe option of Italian food. That being said, I really like this Italian restaurant, so I have no complaints. We were looking to head to the Italian restaurant next door, I had been looking at this Indian restaurant for a while now but my parents prefer the safe option of Italian food. That being said, I really like this Italian restaurant, so I have no complaints.

So on arrival, the Italian restaurant is closed and the Indian restaurant is open, so here is my chance. My mother is with us, this will complicate matters, but this will still work. The restaurant is totally empty, this is a concern, we are the only ones there, but it is still early so we will get a seat.

My mother wanted nothing hot whatsoever, ok, so the vindaloo is out. The waitress really helped us with our concerns, she put some mind dishes forward. I saw the standard fares of rogan josh, korma and vindaloo and wasn’t all that interested. I had all that before, so I was looking for something a little different.

I spoke to the waitress and asked her for her recommendations; for me, she recommended the methi gosht and this was an excellent choice. The waitress pretty much looked after my mother, she is on a walking frame so doesn’t get around very fast anymore. The effort alone of the waitress was a reason to return; well, that and the food was pretty special too.

My post on cognitive bias, more specifically, the Dunning-Krueger effect certainly created a stir where I work. For the record, I was never brought into the office to explain my words, nor was I requested to take the post down. Why should I? It was factually correct and balanced.

Since I never mentioned the institution, it is a fair assumption that they are cyber-trolling me. Naturally, I know all this and play their silly little game. I push right to the limit, but don’t give them an actual reason to sanction me. What it did do was force the manager to make a statement. Prior to that, it was a known quantity based on a series of unofficial leaks. It is either confidential or it is announced, it cannot be both. This is a humiliating action required for a humiliating situation that they caused. 

Naturally, the crony club had been briefed, even those not directly connected had been consulted. What a joke, the very people that walked us into this mess had been informed, they knew. They are not the people to lead us out of this mess, they don’t have developed a coherent plan, we are just seeing more of the same. What we are seeing is more failed ideas and poor execution, just another failure coming. 

The people required to provide the leadership to navigate the team through this debacle had intentionally been kept uninformed. They believed they knew better than the combined knowledge of those involved – actual practice would tend to indicate otherwise. So, now we watch them fumble around and fuck up. This is an impressive display of incompetence at multiple levels of the organisation, the incompetence is embedded throughout our division and we are the ones put under pressure. We pay for their incompetence – fantastic.

I am spending time thinking about defensive strategies with the Chinese presence in the South China Sea and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One area I am looking at is the first and second island chains, proposed by former diplomat and Republican John Foster Dulles during the Korean war, the strategy was to surround the Soviet Union and China with naval bases to project power.

So I am looking at the Australian defensive island chain consisting of the main Indonesian islands of Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands, Timor-Leste, West Papua and Papua New Guinea. The islands of Kalimantan and Sulawesi provide further depth to the defensive island chain creating bottlenecks for approaching naval vessels. Naval vessels have to navigate chokepoints between the islands, this limits approaches from the north.

Australia has good relations with Indonesia, we have military cooperation and economic ties. Furthermore, Indonesia’s enhanced ability to defend itself also means they will not allow aggressive advances through its territory. This will be a naval manoeuvre, Australian air defences in the north of the country will pick off surface ships transiting through the Indonesian archipelago, so this would be a poor strategy.

Let us be under no illusions here, the threat to Australia is China, there is no other threat to Australian security. China now has assets in the South China Sea including runways and radar arrays on multiple islands. Will China attack Australia outright? Unlikely, however, with Taiwan under threat, the potential for the US and Australia to become involved is greatly heightened and an invasion scenario is now not out of the question.

An attack from the north is fraught with danger, this would then require attacks from the eastern and western flanks. As the majority of the population is based on the east coast, the Chinese security pact with the Solomon Islands is of grave concern, this could now become a spy station, naval base and logistical resupply base that endangers Australia.

This is highly concerning as merchant shipping passes through this chokepoint for the east coast, therefore, the first offensive target for the Australian military will be the Solomon Islands, they will have to knock out all their infrastructure. Indeed, they will flatten the islands. Whilst Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has stated there will be no Chinese military bases on the Solomon Islands, pretty much everyone except Sogavare himself knows this is not the case.

The north west has Christmas Island, Cocos and Keeling Islands with the Cocos Islands utilised as a naval replenishment site, an air force forward operating base, and radar surveillance site. This will prevent a force attacking the country from the north west, whilst the population is sparse, there are more potential landing sites on the west coast that will be unimpeded. However, logistic considerations and long travel times to major centres is an issue.

The harbour facilities that could be constructed on Cocos Island would have far greater potential than Christmas Island. There is a runway already, the island resembles Diego Garcia further west in the Indian Ocean operated by the US Air Force with B-1B Lancer supersonic bombers and B-52H Stratofortress bombers operating from the island. Cocos Island has the potential to operate early warning and surveillance aircraft routinely along with fighter aircraft as required.

One of my favourite timepieces in my rotation is the TAG Heuer Aquaracer reference WAY211C.BA0928, this is the 41 mm case diameter. There is a 43 mm case version as well, I prefer the 41 mm. This is unusual for me as I usually prefer a larger case without going too far oversize as some of the modern styles are now courting. 

The applied index markers on the horizontal streaked dial are bold, they have some of the best lume I have in my dive watches. The straight index markers ensure a sharp dial design, there isn’t too much writing on the dial, the white TAG Heuer logo works with the Aquaracer name above the hands pivot point.

The coloured text below the hand pivot point adds a dimension to the dial with the colour matching the second hand pointer colour. The lume indicator and pointer on the second hand matches the dial text colour, for my tastes, the orange 41 mm colour style is the defining feature. Sure, I like the horizontal streaking of the dial, the orange contrasts the blue streaked dial.

I like the bracelet; however, I know TAG Heuer went cheap on the pin and collar retainer when they should have used a screw type system. This is the area where TAG Heuer let themselves down, they should be using a screw retaining system. Both Oris and Omega use screw type systems, these are two of TAG Heuer’s main competitors. 

Still, there is enough of the Aquaracer to like, they clean up a few areas including getting rid of the plastic spacer securing the movement and they recreated the company. They took a hit in terms of reputation during the 1980s and 1990s, they are slowly rebuilding but they just need to improve in a couple of areas.   

The Ukrainian military is doing surprisingly well considering they are hugely outnumbered in terms of personnel, equipment and technology. Putin should have been right, the Russian military should have marched into Kiev and taken the city in quick time.

The Ukrainian tactics have been sensational, sure, they have suffered losses but for the best part, they have acquitted themselves well. We all know they have been supplied military hardware from major powers such as the US, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Latvia, Finland, Estonia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Czech Republic, South Korea, Japan, Turkey and Poland to just name a few.

What I am wondering is what military intelligence they are receiving, they have now received heavy artillery and seem to be doing a fantastic job at targeting. I am guessing NATO and the United States are intercepting Russian communications. What we do know is the Russians brought their own mobile phones into the war, Ukrainian authorities worked this out and just shut down Russian phone numbers from their network.

When the Russians worked this out, they started seizing Ukrainian mobile phones from civilians.Ukrainians have reported these seizures to their telco providers and they now intercept these calls for intelligence purposes, they have an idea of troop movements, troop morale, and even troop numbers. The question is, why are the Russians not taking out Ukraine’s telecommunications? I am guessing they are using the network and need it.

What is known is that US Air Force and Royal Air Force aircraft are flying close to Ukraine, they are not entering Ukrainian airspace. The RC-135 is apparently the most tracked aircraft on FlightRadar24.com. The US is flying Blackhawk helicopters in Poland, RQ-4 drones [Global Hawk] are entering Ukrainian airspace and loitering around. I am guessing the US, the UK and NATO are providing high value intelligence to Ukraine and they are targeting Russian assets effectively.