After seeing highlights of the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams at the Superbowl, I am trying to understand the conference system the NFL employs and how that leads to the Superbowl. Whilst American football is foreign to me in many regards, I respect the skills of the players and their commitment to becoming the best team in the league.

What never fails to amuse me is the claims that the Los Angeles Rams are now world champions. Look, I appreciate that the NFL is America’s game, as an Australian Rules football fan, I totally respect a national sport that is unique to that country – I get it. I can see the NFL is attempting to grow the game internationally, just as the AFL began playing a game or two in China, that does not make AFL an international sport.

But come on, this is a national sport played in the United States by American teams, in American stadiums, followed [mostly] by Americans and sponsored by American companies. Yes, I am aware that there are NFL teams in various countries, the AFL is played in other countries as well, even the US. But this does not make this an elite competition, we are talking of grassroot support in an attempt to grow the sport.

Even some commentators have got some Americanisms going, they have made some statements in regards to some AFL records being world records – give it a rest. We know this is the most elite competition in the country, it is a league record only. These commentators get smacked down pretty quick, it is viewed as ignorant and arrogant. Americans need to heed this advice, this is a league championship, it is a long season to get to the last game of the year. League champions, absolutely, but world champions they are not.

The Cocos Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean has the potential to be an important link in the Australian defensive arc, the Cocos Keeling Islands are located in the Indian Ocean south west of Christmas Island and closer to Indonesia than Australia.

The island is similar to Diego Garcia in many ways, that is the British territory in the Indian Ocean with a US military base on the atoll. On Cocos Keeling Island there is a single runway on the outer atoll with a shallow lagoon in the centre, similar to Diego Garcia. There are 27 islands making up the Cocos Keeling Island atoll with only two of the islands populated, the population is around 600 people, so it is a pretty small island.

The initial plan is to establish a radar array on the island, this will track missile launches and aircraft. Expressions of interest have been sought for an airborne electronic warfare/ISR forward operating base to be established on the island, the contractor then has to support the infrastructure for a year after building. The airbase is also expected to operate M-55A Peregrine EW, a modified Gulfstream G550 business jet. The M-55A Peregrine EW is an electronic warfare aircraft supporting air, naval and ground forces. Defence has stated the main base will be RAAF Base Edinburgh in South Australia with forward operating bases in Darwin, Townsville and the Cocos Keeling Islands.

The runway is to be widened to support the heavier P-8A Poseidon aircraft, a Boeing 737-800 airframe. The AP-3C Orion aircraft that operated previously provided maritime surveillance, the PC-3B entered service in 1968, the P-3C was introduced in 1978 with significant upgrades to AP-3C specifications from 2002 onwards. The AP-3C is being phased out of service with the final aircraft planned for decommissioning in 2023. With the P-8A Poseidon based at RAAF Base Edinburgh, the Cocos Keeling Islands will form the western forward operating base with Darwin and Townsville as the other bases, there is the potential and requirement to upgrade Cocos Keeling Islands for a greater role in the future.

Drew Pavlou is an absolute champion, he was copping it from both sides when he was suspended by the University of Queensland for his political activism. He had viewed on campus the influence of the Chinese government and their attempts to manipulate free thinking, critical analysis and free speech. To be fair, Drew is pretty outspoken and acutely brash, he is considered to be unapologetic in his approach.

Drew could see the influence of the soft power exerted on the university leadership and the detrimental effects this was having on certain segments of the university student cohort. There is pressure exerted on students, not just Chinese students, Hong Kong, Taiwan and other countries in the region copped it too. The University of Queensland has a Chinese government sponsored Confucius Institute with Drew claiming collusion with the University of Queensland and the Chinese government – ouch.

Instead, Pavlou took the fight directly to Chancellor Peter Varghese and Vice Chancellor Peter Høj suing them personally for $3.5 million in the Supreme Court. They backed up pretty quick when their personal fortune was at stake instead of Drew’s future. The Queensland Crime and Corruption Commission declined to investigate the pair citing insufficient evidence, no action will be taken.

For those who are unfamiliar with Drew Pavlou’s case, as a philosophy student, he organised demonstrations on the University of Queensland campus in support of Hong Kong and uighurs. He was very proactive, apparently he turned out to be a pretty good organiser and pretty soon he found himself under the gaze of University of Queensland Disciplinary Board where he received a two year suspension for what was considered trivial matters. This was later

The Chinese government complained so the University of Queensland management, giddy-headed from all the kool aid they were drinking, suspended Pavlou. The University of Queensland senior management thought they would just run roughshod over Drew, well, that was a mistake. He not only stands up to CCP goons, he is up to the task of taking on UQ senior management, there is no fear.

So Drew appealed his suspension – he lost. The University of Queensland receives some decent funding from China, there is a lot at stake here. The senior management are on a pretty decent deal, they have a lot financially riding on this. Drew, on the other hand is an idealist, it would appear he cannot be bought, he certainly will not be silenced. I see Drew as an ethical guy, he will not be swayed by outside factors, this is his whole motive, if he is compromised then he is no better than those he is campaigning against.

So now Drew is running in federal parliament in the 2022 elections as a senator, now his ethics will be tested. He is the type of guy we want in politics, I will watch his progress in politics, will his ethics stand up? Will he be compromised? I cannot answer these questions, I will have to wait and watch. I do hope he is elected, we will see if ethical conduct can be maintained in politics, I expect Chinese interference in Australian politics will be running red hot, they will target him so I will watch with interest his progress.

A negotiating technique I use is incremental escalation, this is an effective strategy when used in negotiations with a management structure out of their depth. I have learned this technique whilst employed in the state government, the problem is they have been promoted to a position beyond their capability, if they don’t take a strategic view, you are in a position to exploit this lack of critical thinking.

You start with the smaller issues to gauge the preparedness of the management to negotiate in good faith. You stand your ground, but you don’t care if this issue doesn’t go anywhere, if you cave in during the negotiation then they will attempt to steamroll you for every other issue. So you can’t back down, easy to say, but how do you pull it off?

You use an agenda, you never begin with the major issue, you use diversion to steer them away from your ultimate outcome. Based on my observations, they are not that quick, they engage in groupthink with no original ideas – I am frequently amazed they can make it to meetings on time.

They hide behind their positions, they use their positional power to intimidate you. So, you need to plan ahead, outthink them, use strategy and apply tactical factors to create the negotiation equivalent of maneuver to best predict their next move, as you have predicted a counter move for their response, you then apply your counter move.

Fortunately, they are pretty predictable, so I don’t need to apply a full game theory mathematical model, instead I use a flowchart scenario type planning process to plot their responses. When a management is unwilling to even compromise on a single point, no matter how minor, you know you are in for an intense negotiation. That is fine, once you get used to this unwillingness to compromise, you devise a series of tactics to counter these moves – now this is where we are.

I can’t claim this sentence as mine, it does however explain the online research [with comments attached] that I do to gauge public opinion for blog posts. The tendency to rely on social media to gauge public sentiment simply rewards the outraged, entitled and narcissistic.

Now, while I was aware the chattering classes tend to be very vocal on social media, the more outraged, the more demanding the more condescending they tend to be. The more conservative tend to avoid social media, this can be either extreme left leaning or right leaning ideology. I have no time for either of these extremes, I certainly do not wish to push my views on others.

This is rather an unusual view of someone who publishes a blog. Not really, I have my viewpoints, what I don’t do is push my viewpoints onto others. My blog is observational, I take a view of the world on comment based on my perspectives – they might not necessarily be correct. They are sincere, these are my views based on my perspectives, I absolutely respect the views of people who have vastly different life experiences to myself who have formed differing views of society, human behaviour and contemporary issues.

Twitter is a war zone, the left-leaning zealots attack any views that are not aligned to their skewed narrative. The moderate views are drowned out, at this point it doesn’t appear to change community perceptions. It is just a bunch of nutters carrying like outspoken fools trying to change public perspective – they generally don’t.

This doesn’t stop pollsters trying to gauge public opinion from Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites. This is not a gauge of public opinion, this is noisy just individuals that flood comments sections with vile comments and bullying type behaviour. Any media outlet that gives credence to these comments lacks the ability to engage in sound analysis and commentary. I certainly respect alternative viewpoints that are correctly researched and rely on a degree of analysis.

A very contemporary news topic is Chinese influence and interference in Australian politics. This is part of a broader strategy of the Chinese Communist Party to dominate the region, this is very much related to the South China Sea and Chinese claims based on their nine dash line. This claim by China does not stand up to scrutiny and was dismissed by the International Court of Arbitration on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 2016.

The second issue is Xi Jinping and his warning that China will take Taiwan by force if necessary. The United States and a number of allies have stated that they will come to the aid of Taiwan if it is invaded. The United States is involved in a number of treaties including ANZUS, the Quad, and AUKUS. The ANZUS treaty was ratified in 1951, Thailand [1951], Philippines [1951], Japan [1952], South Korea [1953] and Taiwan [1954].

Then there is NATO, the French have a presence in the South Pacific, Germany is patrolling the South China Sea and the United Kingdom is also involved through the Quad alliance. Whilst Australia burned the French in dumping their error riddled submarine program, once the French elections are completed in 2022, there will be the opportunity for rebuilding the relationship, this also involves the United Kingdom and the United States.

The flashpoint will be either access to the South China Sea or the invasion of Taiwan. On the second point, an invasion of Taiwan by China will not be an accidental action, this will be planned and executed. The Chinese air force regularly flies bombers and fighter jets into Taiwanese EEZ and a miscalculation may be the justification for escalation. They are attempting to create a flashpoint so they have an excuse to invade Taiwan in the eyes of the international community.

A Chinese amphibious assault will be required to take Taiwan by marines. There is some concern if Taiwan will fight or capitulate, they have extensive hardware but there is a number of questions if Taiwanese troops are trained to the level required and whether they have the will to fight. They may just give in and wait for the United States and the international community to come to their aid. One expected troops will be massed for training and exercises and a surprise invasion will begin.

The Chinese marines will be exposed in the trip over, the Taiwanese navy has older decommissioned United States Kidd Class destroyers transferred to Taiwan, decommissioned Knox class anti-submarine frigates, Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates and French La Fayette class stealth type frigates. The Taiwanese air force has F-16 fighters, Mirage 2000 fighters, Taiwanese developed fighters and older Northrop F-5 fighters soon to be retired. They have plenty of air defence and anti-ship missiles and air defence radar but no submarine coverage.

The Quad alliance of Japan, India, Australia and the United States is a huge concern for China, should conflict occur, both Japan and India will be vital to the alliance. China is surrounded, India has a land border to the west and direct access to the Indian Ocean. There have been border disputes between China and India since the 1960s, there has been recent escalation and India has a similar population and is armed with nuclear weapons.

Should a conflict break out, India would be a key player, they should only patrol the Indian Ocean denying Chinese transit. They should not at any cost become involved in Pacific Ocean operations, they have over 150 ships and submarines and a sizable fleet air wing. India shares a land border with China and skirmishes have erupted along the disputed border. A conflict with the United States would draw India into the fight, India has the ability to open a second front with China to their west and divert resources. India then has the opportunity to reclaim disputed territory and stretch China resources.

China imports its energy from the middle east, this must transit through the Indian Ocean right past India through the Straits of Malacca to the South China Sea. The Indian navy would patrol the Indian Ocean limiting Chinese trade through Malacca Strait and Lombok Strait. The US navy utilises logistical support and resupply through Singapore’s Changi naval base. This would effectively starve China of energy, shut down their industry and their economy. An overland oil pipeline is not the answer, it is neither practical nor feasible.

Japan limits Chinese movement northwards to the Sea of Japan with a bottleneck with South Korea. The island chain south of Japan is the Ryukyu Islands including the larger islands of Ōsumi-shotō, Amami-shotō in the north past Okinawa to Sakishima-shotō in the south to Taiwan. Extending south from Taiwan, the islands of the Philippines and Malaysia prevent naval movement eastward with Vietnam forming the land border, the choke point is Singapore and Indonesia. Unfortunately, China has territorial disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and issues with Indonesia encroaching on their territory.

Guam with Anderson Air Force base, an extensive munitions supply and fuel capability. This is the main base for US troops that will also resupply South Korea, Japan and the Philippines. The US Navy has extensive infrastructure on the mid section of the island in Apra harbor, Marines and the US Army have less resources on the island. The naval facilities are staging points for submarines, surface ships and troops that includes logistical support.

Australia has Tindal air base in Katherine, 320 km south east of Darwin. An Australian military base in Darwin also supports a United States marine base. US Air Force bombers from B-52 and B-1 have the ability to conduct missions flying to Southern China, jet fighters from F-15, F16, F/A-18 have the ability to be based at Tindal with F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters in atacking roles.

Western Australia has a couple of part-time air force bases with Curtin Air Base near Derby and Learmonth Air Base near Exmouth that can be utilised along with Amberley Air Base in outer Brisbane, Townsville Air Base with the remote Cape York Scherger Air Base in Queensland. The forward air bases Curtin, Darwin, Tindal and Scherger really lack solid infrastructure and should be upgraded for a more dominant roles.

The Philippines has the Subic Bay naval facilities operated by the US navy right up to their withdrawal in 1992. The Clark Air Base was abandoned by the US Air Force in 1991 after Mt Pinatubo blew, this would allow flights in close proximity to the South China Sea. Clark is still an operational airport, now used for budget airlines removing congestion away from Ninoy International Airport in Manila.

The United States strategic bombers that include the B-52H stratofortress, the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Sprit aircraft that can also carry extensive missile loads. Whilst a B-52 cannot fly over mainland China to drop cluster bombs, it can carry 12 external pylon mounted cruise missiles on the wongs and a further 8 missiles in the bomb bay. With a 1000 km range, the B-52 has the potential to launch cruise missile attacks from outside the first island chain.

The B-1B Lancer can fly at supersonic speeds and carry 8 x air launched cruise missiles [800 – 1600 km range], 24 x short-range attack missiles with a range of 200 km or 84 x 500 lb bombs. This is massive firepower, with anti-ship missiles, the Chinese navy is locked in the first island chain with any ship escaping is exposed to missile attack.

So why bother going head-to-head? Set up a naval blockade behind the second island chain to prevent Chinese navy access to the Pacific and strangle Chinese shipping and their economy. Use bombers to carry out select missile runs with aircraft carriers in the open ocean preventing a breakout of merchant shipping in the South China Sea and associated bottlenecks of Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straights to the south and Philippine Sea to the north.

When I engage in negotiations with my state government employer, I always design an escape clause into the demands I am discussing. I create a series of escalating demands based on what I am seeking to achieve with a number of side issues designed to create division, a reallocation of resources, a diversion, and a possibility to either escalate or deescalate the negotiation based on their desire to negotiate a solution.

When you are involved in a hostile negotiation, a number of offensive and defensive strategies are required to avoid being steamrolled. This is especially important when the management holds all the power and wields this power at their whim. As an individual, you are in the weaker position, you need to devise strategies to prevent any initiative being blocked, shut down, hijacked or roadblock tactics to wear down and pressure an opponent.

An escape clause is an important negotiating weapon that I would deem a defensive strategy, you give the management an opportunity to negotiate a settlement. Utilising this strategy, this is not deemed a win/lose negotiation, they have an opportunity to attempt to broker a solution and not just solely erect obstacles. Basically, they have been offered an opportunity to back down without humiliation, a de-escalation clause that they never seem to identify and never take advantage of – they just cannot work out my tactics.

I am reading on newswires that the Russian military are leaving their dead on the side of the road or placed in mass graves. Intercepted mobile phone communications with Russian soldiers calling home are shocked that the Russian military just leaves bodies where they fall. 

The Ukrainian forces are identifying their military and civilian dead. Not only that, the Ukrainian forces are also collecting the dead bodies of Russian soldiers. Based on what I am seeing, this is not that popular in Ukraine based on the war crimes committed against their population. The war crimes angle is a major concern, but I am looking at this from a different angle.

The Russian military and Russian political elite don’t want the bodies of dead soldiers returned. The Ukrainian military is claiming up to 25,000 dead soldiers, is this true? I don’t know, we have to rely on Ukrainian estimates. However, if the Ukrainians start returning dead Russian military personnel to Russia, it would be difficult for the Russian political elite to deny the deaths. There is looted goods on the bodies of the dead Russian soldiers, this is highly embarrassing for the Russian military. 

As the Ukrainian military makes greater gains in the Eastern Donbas region, the Russian bodies will further pile up. There are so many images on newswires of Russian tanks being destroyed with Javelin missiles causing the turret to pop off, that is a major loss of personnel. The  Ukrainian military has requested Russian DNA data to identify Russian soldiers, they are not supplying the data and not interested in repatriating dead military personnel. 

There are claims dead Russian soldiers are piled in mass graves by the Russian military. Whilst satellite photography has identified mass Ukrainian civilian graves in captured cities and towns, there is evidence of civilians killed by sniper file just going out to purchase food and suppliers. With the arrival of long range American artillery, one expects further Russian losses as the intelligence used by the Ukrainians is highly targeted and effective. 

Whilst the FIRE movement [Financially Independent Retire Early] characterised by frugal living and saving hard may have taken off in the United States, I am not seeing this in Perth in the young set.

So, you may ask, what would you know, how many young people do you actually know? My job was a college lecturer, I was mixing with young people every day so I spend a fair amount of time talking to students out of class and discussing personal issues. I also have an 18 year old nephew so I am exposed to his group of friends, I see these young adults burn through money at an alarming rate. This isn’t unusual for middle-class kids these days, this is normal in Perth.

They haven’t really struggled for money and prefer the convenience of purchasing off the shelf instead of making or building themselves. When I see his mates go out and purchase $700 shoes, I ask myself what are the priorities here? My nephew is undoubtedly influenced by his friends, they are living beyond their means supported by their parents. My sister, on the other had is a widow, her husband died and now she struggles with money – as would be expected.

She can’t afford to support his young lifestyle although the family has vowed to make sure his teenage years were not defined financially by the loss of his father. At some point he needs to step up, he is working as a labourer hoping for an offer of an apprenticeship. He is young and is enjoying life with his mates and his social group, ok, no problems here. However, at some some stage, he needs to get serious about work and securing an apprenticeship and that takes lots of applications, 80 – 100 would be my guess before he gets lucky.

Now, when I say lucky, I mean making your own luck and that takes persistence and being in the right spot at the right time. I have been through all this previously, I am aware of the vagaries of the job market and how soul destroying it can be. It is not his fault he cannot secure an apprenticeship, this is the character building phase of his life. He needs to stay off the booze, keep away from parties and start taking short courses to get tickets to become employable.

So how much superannuation do we need for a comfortable retirement? According to the ASFA Retirement Standard September 2020 report, a couple owning their own house should aim for $620k on retirement. 

They recommend a couple should have around two thirds, or 67% of their pre-retirement income to maintain a similar standard of living prior to retirement. The Association of Superannuation Funds Australia provides an industry retirement standard to estimate how much money you will need to survive on during retirement. 

This report assumes a partial age pension is available, this offsets some of the costs, not everyone is eligible. For people in my age bracket, the pension retirement age is 67. The aim is to be able to retire at age 60 and live off our superannuation earnings for seven years before the age pension kicks in. Every change of government begins with a cold sweat, this long-term investment is constantly exposed to short-term policy making. 

If you saved the money, you put the effort in and have earned the right to retire early. Likewise, if you spent your earnings in your younger years then you will have to delay retirement. Those who actually saved for their retirement should not be disadvantaged for those who failed to save. This is the fairness test, those who save should not subsidise who didn’t, of course, this is not how the system works.

Earn your early retirement and enjoy those early years whilst you are fit enough to travel and move about. You will be getting older, medical issues increasing and less able to do what you want. Retire early and enjoy the early years of retirement, don’t let a bunch of jealous public servants determine your future.