What I had viewed in the Brittany Higgins sexual assault case was trial by media, this was a clear case of attempting to turn public opinion against Bruce Lehrmann and try to break him. From what I could determine, his legal team was well run, it was very tight, no loose comments and emotional outbursts. The Higgins legal team were very loose, her comments outside the court after the mistrial were emotional and ill conceived, her legal team should never have let that happen, now she is exposed.

From the outset, I saw this moving to a defamation hearing because if the prosecution was just relying on the facts of the case, I thought it may be tight as there was no immediate police report, no medical examination and no proof a sexual assault taking place. Bruce Lehrmann maintained his innocence claiming no sexual activity took place, Brittany Higgins claimed she woke up mid-rape, the prosecution had an uphill battle as there were no other witnesses.

Even before the mistrial, the jury was taking a long time to deliberate, the longer it took, the more chance he had. The mis-trial could have robbed him of a verdict, with charges now dropped, he will be forever viewed as the guy who got away with it on a technicality. Was Bruce Lehrmann a good guy? I do not know him, but I suspect not. Did he abuse his position, it appears that he did, but once again, this needs to be proved beyond a reasonable doubt, it appears the prosecution were unable to do this.

The role of the media in this case has been outrageous, no longer did the principle of innocence until proven guilty apply, Channel Ten and The Project will now face scrutiny. Their slogan of news delivered differently really applies here, Lisa Wilkinson, after already delaying the case could find herself personally liable, along with her husband Peter FitzSimonds, they may be making some financial donations to the Lehrmann legal team.

So with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine faltering, the Russian separatists in the east of non-NATO member Moldova on the Ukraine border may well be getting nervous right now. The Russian military was planning an assault on Odesa to join the whole eastern and southern Ukraine all the way to Moldova. This failed to occur, there was no doubt plans to take Odesa but the resistance was too high, this would have cut off the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea.

The elite Russian parachute brigade failed to take Kyiv, the special military operation to topple the Ukraine government failed. Instead, the 331st Guards Parachute Regiment were wiped out and really been inconsequential in this war, they were likely supported by the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade. The regiment’s commanding officer, Colonel Sergei Sukharev was killed in Ukraine. Putin wanted to topple the government, murder Zelensky and install a Belarus style government in Ukraine.

Moldova was once part of the Soviet Union, there are still regions in the east of the country where separatists are operating. The Transnistria region was held by Russian forces exerting influence over the region. If the whole of southern Ukraine fell, there was a concern Moldova was next, now that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of Kherson, the threat for Moldova is diminishing. The Russian losses are mounting, they have no more resources to throw into this region of the conflict.

The Air King Reference 116900 is an interesting timepiece for me, the 116900 uses a 40 mm Milgauss case, three link oystersteel bracelet with folding oysterclasp and a 5 mm extension. This isn’t a very popular design among Rolex enthusiasts, so it is somewhat unique.

I am doing some reading up on the situation in the South China Sea. I see the region flaring up at some point in the future. I see the US leading the conflict, whilst I expect Taiwan to be the point of conflict, a misjudgment from either side could easily trigger this conflict. This does not mean a conflict will occur, this is the offensive/defensive positioning in the geopolitical environment.

The Chinese anti-access and area denial strategy is of particular interest to me. To begin with, I was asking myself what is China doing by militarising the Spratly Islands between the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea. China has armed these islands with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, the Chinese have a sophisticated radar array to seek threats and targets.

So having never served in the military, I have to learn these terms so I can grasp this strategy. Anti-access is considered an offensive strategy utilising attack aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles and ships to strike targets. Anti-access is designed to prevent military movement in an area of operations, area denial prevents freedom of action under control of the military force. What China is seeking is an anti-access and area denial policy in the South China Sea.

So what China is attempting to do is create an area denial strategy in the wider Western Pacific to specifically deny the US Navy and more broadly the United States military access to the region. This is difficult with US bases in Japan, South Korea and access to the Philippines. Although Philippines military cooperation was difficult under the Duterte administration and looks just as difficult under the incoming Marcos government, there are still assets available.

With the disputed Spratly Islands very much a consideration, an area denial strategy is created through the heavily armed islands having runways, missile defence and missile offence systems along with an extensive radar array. The purpose is to deny access to the US Navy to the first island chain, and possibly pull back behind the second island chain.

The range of aircraft carriers is limited here, the fighter jets have a range of around 650 km. This is a concern as Chinese anti-ship missiles are increasing in range, this is now a threat to the fleet and whilst a carrier strike group has a range of ships and defensive capabilities, no one really wants to find out if a carrier can survive a direct hit from a Chinese anti-ship missile.

We are witnessing Ukraine humiliate Russia, we are watching history unfold in front of us. What we are defining as a Ukrainian victory is expelling Russia out of Ukraine including Crimea. Apart from the pro-Putin Russian trolls on social media and QAnon conspiracy theorists, the world is cheering the Ukrainian defiance of this illegal invasion of a sovereign nation.

Russia currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, there is still a lot that can go wrong for Ukraine though. What we are seeing is Russia now holds less territory than it did in the first two weeks of the invasion of Ukraine. As a nation, a determined Ukraine held on against the initial onslaught, defeated the Russian advance towards Kyiv before making some spectacular gains against an overwhelming invasion force that was poorly led.

Although Russia is mobilising further troops, they appear to be mostly ineffective as they are poorly trained, lacking discipline, badly equipped and lacking the leadership to take advantage of their numerical advantage. Ukraine is hampered by not being able to use western weapons to attack legitimate Rùssian military targets within their own borders.

That being said, the Ukrainians appear to have modified some old Soviet era drones to attack their air force on Russian air bases deep in their own territory. They effectively created a slow moving cruise missile with limited range, maneuverability and explosive force to once again damage Russian assets and prestige. This has made a laughing stock of Putin and his much vaunted S-300 and S-400 air defence missile system. They cannot even shoot down home made missiles and defend their aircraft sitting on the tarmac – funny stuff.

We have no electricity, no water, no mobile connection, no internet connection, we can hear shelling, but we have no Russians – that’s why we are so happy. I was concerned, after the route at Kharkiv and the potential traps at Kherson, they fortunately did not eventuate.

President Zelensky visited the city, now named Time Person of the Year, this is one selection that has the support of just about everyone – apart from a former 2007 winner. This was a bold move, after months of occupation under a regime that has no qualms to rape, murder and torture the people in occupied regions.

Yet the Time Person of the Year does not carry that much weight since Putin himself got that award in 2007 for returning Russia to the table of world power, even if it came at a cost of democratic principles. Having Adolf Hitler (1938) and Joseph Stalin (1939) and in (1942) as winners takes the shine off of the award. Then there is Wallis Simpson (1936) and Harry Truman (1945), they might be a little controversial as winners Then there was Nixon (1971) in what would be considered a tad premature.

Zelensky is a genuine leader, multiple assassination attempts on his life, his refusal to flee the city, even as Russian troops neared the outskirts of Kyiv have enhanced his reputation. There has been reportedly twelve assassination attempts on his life during the Russian invasion, yet Zelensky refused to leave.

Without Zelensky’s bold leadership, the Ukrainian resistance may have folded, he has motivated the population, garnered international support and most importantly secured advanced western weapons and logistical support. The Ukrainian resistance has been fierce, they have used their limited resources to maximum effect. Even in occupied territory, the Ukrainian resistance has been determined, they provide coordinates for counter-attacks and missile strikes.

It is up to the people of the nation to select their government and their leaders. From an outsider’s perspective, why would you elect the son of a brutal dictator? The Marcos family has not returned the stolen funds from the 1960s to 1980s. They estimate $10 billion [potentially more] was embezzled out of the country and stashed in Swiss bank accounts – and it is still there.

When Ferdinand and Imelda fled to Hawaii with Bongbong [Ferdinand Junior], Imee and Irene, the country was in disarray, years of martial law had left over 3200 dead, 77,000+ incarcerations. There was over 35,000 documented cases of torture, countless women raped and the country destined to another generation of poverty according to Amensty International. Whilst South East Asia is pulling itself out of extreme poverty, the Philippines has been left behind, the country still has not recovered.

The political dynasty was thought to have started when Mariano was elected as a congressman to the House of Representatives in 1925. They were never a clean family, Mariano lost his seat in 1935 and the winner was assassinated on his back porch later that night, after a mock funeral parade marched past his house.

Mariano himself was assassinated in 1945, the family claim it was by the Japanese, but witnesses claim it was by Philippine guerillas after he was tried as a Japanese collaborator and dismembered with carabaos. His son, Ferdinand served in his father’s former position firstly in congress and later in the senate before becoming President in 1965.

Despite the constitution allowing two four year terms, Marcos enacted martial law in 1972 and stayed in power until forced to flee in 1986 after the assassination of Ninoy Aquino. Living in exile in Hawaii until Ferdinand’s death in 1991, Corazon Aquino allowed family members to return to the Philippines, supposedly to stand trial for corruption.

This was a failure, Imelda then unsuccessfully ran for president in 1992 before being elected to congress for the seat of Leyte. Imelda had another run for the presidency in 1998 before withdrawing and supporting eventual winner, Joseph Estrada. Imelda maintained the congressional position for three terms.

Ferdinand Junior was a senator from 2010 – 2016, unsuccessfully run for Vice President to Rodrigo Duterte, losing to Leni Roberto. I recall there was discussion of legal action, but I believe he decided to not follow up, instead waiting for his opportunity at the end of the Duterte presidency.

So, the Marcos family and all their cronies embedded in the government and government agencies still have major influence at all levels of government. From what I read on social media, Bongbong is widely supported, he did win the presidential election in a landslide, the family deny any wrongdoing and are seeking to redeem the family name. There is impunity for this family whilst they remain in government, let’s see what they do to retain power.

I love reading the pro-Putin comments online with his legion of online lackeys claiming to destroy all the US supplied Himar rocket systems. We see these pop up in online forums all the time, if you disagree with them, you just follow western media like sheep – yeah right.

Russian sources have claimed to have destroyed more Himar systems than has been supplied to Ukraine, well, we all know Russian reporting of this war [sorry, special military operation] is notoriously imprecise. Much like a Russian missile system actually, but could there actually be some truth to the Russian Ministry of Defence claims?

The Russian military is almost expert at destroying decoy Ukraine Himar sites, they don’t move, don’t shoot back and are easily spotted by Russian drones. Then the coordinates are forwarded to Russian Black Sea forces to expend naval long-range cruise missiles on decoy [sometimes constructed from wood] sites. The real Himar launchers have launched their precision missiles and long since relocated to hit Russian targets elsewhere.

Watching YouTube videos of the Russian war in Ukraine, I try to view two sides of every story. The 10 day special military operation is clearly a failure from the perspective that the Russian invaders have failed to meet their objectives. Ok, so these objectives are constantly moving with the countless failures, but we all know what they tried on, and it failed.

So now there has been a partial mobilisation, this is leading to further Russian failures. Untrained conscripts are forced to the front lines to be used as cannon fodder. These poorly trained, under-resourced, undisciplined and shockingly bad mobiks have no command leadership and are sent to the front lines to die. They might have an overwhelming numerical advantage over the Ukrainian defenders, but their lack of fighting ability and grit quickly erodes this advantage.

What I see on videos released is Russian mothers, wives and girlfriends pleading to the Russian hierarchy to better train, equip and support their men. Make no mistake, they are not questioning the invasion of Ukraine, they are demanding better conditions [and pay] for their men. They offer no regrets for the suffering of the Ukrainian people, they still use derogatory terms for Ukrainians showing no remorse whatsoever.

Well, sending these poorly trained men to the front lines to try to kill Ukrainian soldiers fighting for freedom, they are failing miserably and the more Russians forced into the meat grinder slowly undermines the future capacity of Russia. It is clear that these women support the invasion of Ukraine, they view Ukrainians as unequal to them and they must pay the price of this arrogance with their lives. Every Ukrainian life lost defending their freedom is a tragedy, the Russian invaders are labelled orcs, their losses are nowhere near as tragic.

I am asking myself, why is the Wagner Group pouring so many resources into trying to take the town of Bakhmut. From a military perspective, there does not seem to be a great military objective here so many are speculating why Russia is pushing so hard here – I am wondering too.

The first possibility is the Wagner Group is pushing their own agenda here, they are being paid by the Russian government to meet objectives. They are pushing an internal agenda that the Russian military fails to meet objectives, but the Wagner Group is successful. This is very much an internal power play, the Wagner Group seeks more lucrative government contracts and is attempting to build their reputation.

There is discussion that Russians are waking up to the fact that this war is not going well for Russia as the second possibility. This may lead to the end of Putin himself, this military failure may set off a power struggle in the Kremlin. The Russians historically have little tolerance of military failure, this leads to upheaval and the leadership is replaced. It is precisely this leadership failure that led the country into this war, during covid, Putin was isolated during the covid pandemic due to his inner circle falling ill and he may have become obsessed with the goal and NATO in general.

Thirdly, Yevgeny Prigozhin is well connected to Putin himself, he was the personal chef to Putin after becoming a loyal ally with Putin becoming a regular diner at his restaurants in St Petersburg. Prigozhin may be setting the Wagner Group up for alliance to the new regime should Putin be displaced as President. This collection of rag tag low-level mercenaries are not top end talent from the Russian military, they recruit from prison allowing sentences to be waived should they survive. This requires high-level contacts, this really does not reflect well on Russian government processes.

Putin has been a Presidential dictator of Russia since 2012, after being Prime Minister from 2008 – 2012. The next possibility is that Prigozhin is seeing weakness in Putin and he feels Putin might not survive as President. This may be the opportunity for Prigozhin to use this probable upheaval to push his case to become the next President. There has been speculation that Putin is preparing a residence in exile in South America should he be deposed as President.

There is speculation that Russia is trying to get within artillery striking range of two Ukrainian field HQ as the fifth possibility. Should they gain control of Bakhmut, they can position their artillery on the outskirts of Bakhmut and pound these positions. However, this does not discount the fact that Russia could just hit these areas with missile strikes. This would tend to indicate these field HQs are heavily defended from missile strikes and the Russians are not confident that they are capable of hitting these targets with their missiles.

Sixth, Russia is seeking to drag Ukraine into a quagmire to tie up and destroy resources, this is intended to weaken the Ukrainian resolve. Putin’s targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure is a further attempt to break their resolve. Russia may be seeking to negotiate a ceasefire, they are attempting to freeze them out, but this doesn’t appear to be working either. The Ukrainian people are steadfast, they want Russia out, they are not willing to negotiate from a weak position and they are certainly not willing to negotiate their sovereignty.

Lastly, this may be an old plan that has not been updated prior to Russia losing Kharkiv. The Wagner Group is being paid, or may have already been paid to take Bakhmut already. There has been some discussion that the Russian people have already been told that they have won this battle, the objective is now just to appease a home audience. Possibly Putin’s hold on power is not as strong as we think it is, maybe he is fragile

This then begs the question, why is Ukraine pouring so many resources into this town? Ukraine themselves may be trying to bog down Russian troops [Wagner Group] and resources, possibly. Ukraine will defend this area. Ukraine is not giving an inch, they are defending hard but taking losses too. My only concern is they are being dragged into a trap. There is a possibility Russia will be ground down in the very offensive they launched.