I would find it unlikely Ukraine would attempt to invade Russian held areas of Crimea during the current stage of this offensive. There are limited options for Ukrainian forces to enter Crimea, they would concentrate in two the bottlenecks and suffer heavy losses through concentrated Russian artillery and rocket attacks.

What I would find more likely is the forces push through the landbridge supplying Crimea and then launching attacks against the Kerch Bridge cutting off supplies from Russia. Since they have already hit the Chongar Bridge, they will now likely target the pontoon bridge set up by the Russians. Likewise, there is the road route [the long way round] that could allow Ukrainian artillery to target Russian supply convoys as they take the roads from Armiansk.

Ukraine will soon have long range missiles capable of striking the Kerch Bridge, this is especially so if they are able to push deep into Russian held territory. The French/British designed Storm Shadow missile has a 450 kilometers range and can be launched by an aircraft that could theoretically strike the Kerch Bridge. That puts aircraft at risk of the S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries so I don’t think they will risk these aircraft just yet, they will push down and take control of ground that they can defend where they can launch air-to-ground long-range missiles.

I would expect Ukraine to wait until they receive shipment of the MGM-140 ATACMS [Army Tactical Missile System] with a 300 kilometer range. I would expect as Ukraine takes ground and pushes towards Melitopol and Mariupol their longer range missiles can come into play. The US has been hesitant to supply Ukraine with longer range weapons. However, the Ukrainian leadership has been careful to not strike targets in Russia with US and NATO supplied weapons.

Not every HIMARS launch system needs to be equipped with the MGM-140 missiles, they really need one battery that can launch six long range missiles towards the Kerch Bridge. From what I can tell, Ukraine does not want to waste lives [I am hoping] to take Crimea, they are likely to create a siege and cut off supply until Russian support wanes. Ukraine may keep the Kerch Bridge open to allows Russians to escape from Crimea and back to Russia but that also allows resupply so I will be watching on with interest what the Ukrainian military leadership will do.

There was a misconception that the Ukrainian counter offensive was going to happen pretty fast. The spring offensive has turned into the summer offensive and will likely take back territory in 2023 before the winter defensive lull before a resumption of offensive activities in 2024. The last offensive from Ukraine to liberate Kharkiv in the north and then Kherson in the south has fueled expectations that Ukraine will make such large gains immediately – this has created unrealistic expectations.

Russian forces have had a long time to dig in defensive positions, they have mined positions and set up dragon teeth anti-tank defenses. They are not anti-tank insofar as they do not completely stop tanks and other armored vehicles. Instead a slow down armour allowing a counter attack on the tank is probable. Ukraine is losing tanks, when they hit a mine the tank might not be totally destroyed, the crew is likely to survive unlike a Russian tank, still, they lose an asset.

Ukraine has not committed reserves, they have run in small groupings probing for weakness in lines. What I expect to see is a mass of armour and infantry in blitzkrieg type tactics when they identify these weak points, they will look to break through. What I have learned is the Ukraine hierarchy has placed a high regard on Ukrainian lives. Yes, they know Ukrainian lives will be lost but they seek to limit Ukrainian losses. Every Ukrainian life lost is a tragedy – Russian lives lost is not an issue for them.

Ukraine is hitting logistics starving dug-in Russian troops of resupply of munitions as well as food and water. Now Ukraine has hit the Chonhar Bridge with a Storm Shadow missile, this dents their resupply activities but does not entirely stop resupply, it merely disrupts Russian activities. Russian logistics are now world famous for being so poorly managed, this activity makes a poorly organised structure much worse. Yes, Russia will still be able to resupply troops through a road, but this adds a further 160 kilometres to the travelling distance, once again, it will not prevent resupply, it will slow resupply though.

The Storm Shadow is a British/French designed and manufactured long-range low-observable air-launched cruise missile with a range of 550 kilometers and a 450 kilogram warhead. The US has now authorised the acquisition and procurement of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles for Ukraine. All of a sudden the Kerch Bridge will be within range of Ukrainian missiles. Captain Himars will be able to target the Kerch Bridge to prevent resupply to Crimea and they will not need to invade, they will just create a siege until Russian forces buckle. Likewise, Ukraine may decide to target the Kerch Bridge with Storm Shadow missiles so I am waiting to see what they will do, it will be spectacular.

So an arrest warrant has been issued by the International Court of Justice for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. The little man in terms of stature, intellect and presence has been humbled in front of the world. His skewed vision of a renewed Russian empire is in tatters, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has failed, the Russian neighbour has resisted the fascist invasion of their territory and embarrassed what many thought were a military superpower – the world now knows this is a falacy.

This arrest warrant issued for Putin will curtail his international jet setting, he is locked into direct flights to aligned countries. Putin can no longer travel to G20 meetings, the UN General Assembly or any economic forum. Russia is a big country and Putin has amassed an immense wealth, he has plenty of options within Russian borders. Should Putin be deposed as leader, he may be handed over to the International Court of Justice in The Hague for trial by his own country. 

So I have seen this Russian propagandist pushing his pro-Russian views online, a couple of the Ukraine war channels have been replaying parts of his views from his views as a Russian propagandist. I must admit, I had no idea who he was, I thought he was just another pro-Russian blogger or vlogger. He was stating the war was mismanaged and Russia was heading for defeat, that is clear. I could see an unusual flag in his background, so I had an idea he was an ultra-nationalist.

I became suspicious when they referred to him as a terrorist on one of the voice-overs, so I decided to try and find out who he was. It was about this time that another Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky Vladlen Tatarsky was blown up in WMC WagnerYevgeny Prigozhin’s St Petersburg restaurant after being sent a gift to one of his get-togethers. Not too many people are upset about this, he was a divisive figure.

This has had a highly negative effect on Russian military bloggers, they are now scared and some are shutting their channels down. So this bombing of the Russian blogger has had a positive effect, Russian support for this war may soon wane. However, Whilst I do not support terrorism, I have to question if Vladlen Tatarsky is a legitimate target based on his propaganda to maintain Russian support of the invasion of Ukraine.

The individual in question is Igor Girkin, this took a bunch of effort to even work out who he was. By doing some picture searches, I was able to determine who he was and it was not a pretty picture. Igor Girkin is a convicted terrorist, he is a Russian and he is hiding from international authorities and being protected by Russia. So what did Igor Girkin do? Girkin was involved in the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines MH17 over Ukraine, he was the Russian commander who ordered the shooting down of a commercial airliner.

There was the loss of innocent lives from a multitude of countries including Australia [27], the Netherlands [193], Malaysia [43], Indonesia [12] and the United Kingdom [10]. Girkin was tried in the International Court of Justice at The Hague in the Netherlands. Naturally, Vladimir Putin protects terrorists and refuses to hand over Igor Girkin to the International Court of Justice. Igor Girkin is a convicted terrorist, that is now a proven fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin supports terrorism on so many levels, his unwillingness to hand over a convicted terrorist is yet another example of his support of state supported terrorism.

During the 1960s, Omega was the premium product, yes, Rolex produced some solid timepieces, yet Omega was the leading brand. As an innovative business, Omega was a well respected organisation producing a quality product that declined in the late 1970s and 1980s before reinventing itself. We know this is not the case now, Omega is trying to match Rolex, but is a long way off.

When the quartz revolution hit, the Japanese technological invention antiquated the mechanical watchmaking business, it immediately made the mechanical movement obsolete. It was aptly named the quartz crisis and bankrupted a large number of Swiss watchmakers. So, when Rolex re-engineered their products as premium products, they became the Rolls Royce of watchmaking.

Omega was in financial distress and was swallowed up as a premium brand of the Swatch Group. Whilst this saved the company, as a subsidiary of a large global business, a large degree of autonomy was ceded. A counter-argument is the Swatch Group provides stability, marketing prowess and liquidity.

Omega is now in the unenviable position of trying to catch up to Rolex. Omega has a great product line, fantastic heritage, innovative designs and the technological advantage, having their reputation tarnished in the 1970s and 1980s has proved to be a major burden though. In the luxury product world, prestige is everything and Rolex has that prestige. 

Rolex is viewed as the Rolls Royce of watchmakers, a stodgy private company that relies on their legacy range of watches to generate growth. In watchmaking, reputation is everything with Rolex reigning as the king of watchmakers. A non-watch enthusiast knows the Rolex brand, but would be hard pressed to name the holy trinity of haute horology of Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin or Audermars Piguet – that is amazing.

So Omega is on the rebound, more people are aware of Omega products and plenty of people are willing to part with a premium to own some Omega prestige. Omega is more attainable too, the waiting list for standard timepieces is not long, a customer can walk out of a boutique with a Speedmaster, Seamaster or Constellation secured to their wrist. 

This is near impossible for Rolex, with the exception of the DateJust, walking out of a Rolex boutique with a Submariner, Daytona, Explorer or GMT Master is unheard of. Instead, your name goes on a waiting list and you will be contacted when one becomes available. The mark-up by the retailer must be phenomenal as the retailer is limited by manufacturer supply. This artificial scarcity is driving the Rolex products, a two year waitlist makes this product more appealing. 

The Omega boutique is an entirely different matter, there is little artificial scarcity created. With the exception of some very special releases, supply is pretty good and if you want one of the rarer models, it will be shipped in for you. Can Omega create artificial scarcity? Sure, they can but that would not be building their customer base. Why wait two years for a Rolex when you can have an Omega now with greater styling, a high tech movement, excellent quality control and a fast improving reputation.

I have been following the Ukraine war on YouTube, in print media and specific websites. The sites that I follow show Russian propagandists belting out the Kremlin rhetoric at maximum volume. Naturally, this is expected to occur in a closed and authoritarian nation like Russia, so there is nothing unusual here. he apparently has a large fan base in Russia, his propaganda works, he does influence people’s minds.

One of the main protagonists I watch is Vladimir Solovyov, a Jewish Russian who is ready to push the Kremlin’s Nazi line. I have to give him his due, he is certainly passionate. I cannot say he argues his case well, he just speaks with some misplaced authority on the issue – he is basically a dribbler. When I say authority, I do not mean technical or insider authority, I mean he strongly argues his point of view without any quantitative data, logic or facts.

He is demanding nuclear escalation by the Russian Federation, he speaks of flattening Berlin, Paris and London, he even discusses a strike on New York. This is nothing more than Kremlin messaging to an internal audience, with modern technology we are able to view their television shows. It does make interesting viewing, surely no rational person would fall for this stupidity, yet Vladimir Solovyov is pretty popular in Russia.

Surely even Vladimir Solovyov knows this war is not going well for Russia, he cannot be that stupid, his job is to stir up the masses and put the Kremlin’s version of the truth forward. But he must know Russia is losing this war, Solovyov cannot be believing his own propaganda, surely he has enough awareness to see Russia is in big trouble.

The Brittany Higgins rape trial was a witch hunt, driven by Lisa Wilkinson’s ego, she knew what she was doing and obliterated the presumption of innocence with the distinction between an untested allegation and proven fact of guilt lost. Whilst Lisa Wilkinson and other journalists were presenting themselves for awards, this trial by media almost broke the Australian justice system.

What interested me the most is the presumption of innocence until proven guilty in a court of law, due process, and the right to cross examine evidence was all dismissed in the media coverage driven by the #MeToo movement. Britrany Higgins chose to become the face of the #MeToo movement in Australia. The rule of law was nearly thrown away in Australia with the onus of proof on the prosecution almost dismissed.

So when Lisa Wilkinson got up and gave her Brittany Higgins speech at the Logie Awards Ceremony, she not only delayed the trial by three months, she gave the Bruce Lehrmann defence team precious time to reevaluate their defence strategy. Lisa Wilkinson was so arrogant, she believed she could influence the jury through her high profile TV presenter role without prejudicing the prosecution case just a week before the trial.

However, Chief Justice Lucy McCallum thought differently and delayed the high-profile trial. In the Australian Capital Territory, there is no provision for a judge only trial where the judge purely interprets the law based on the presented evidence, Wilkinson’s speech was aimed at potential jurors. What Wilkinson did was save Lehrmann, there was a very high chance he would have been convicted at what was considered just a formality the prosecution was forced to endure.

Not that it was needed, a mistrial was declared when a jury member clearly unimpressed by Brittany Higgins’ sworn testimony brought in research material to the jury room questioning the witness allegations. A court clerk found the unauthorised materials and the case was over, they had to go through the whole process again with a new jury. The material was based on a trial witness making false allegations, the jury did not believe her story.

In what was the biggest sensation, Brittany Higgins herself gave a press conference outside the court in a clear breach of protocol. Her statement was damning, I recall listening to her statement live at work and knew straight away this was going to be big. This was a high profile case before a jury where a prejudiced effort had been made to sway the jury and then another ill advised press conference undermined the rule of law, due process and the opportunity of a fair trial.

As a Fremantle Football Club member, I attended both the 2021 and 2022 member’s meetings, the 2021 meeting at the Esplanade Hotel in Fremantle and Optus Stadium in Perth in 2022 as the Esplanade Hotel was not available.

A question that was raised during the 2021 AGM was the issue of Woodside Limited as the major Fremantle Football Club sponsor. Now, respectfully I used the term raised, it was an emotional and poorly articulated rant that was met with gasps and moans by the members. I jumped up and wandered off to the toilet as I was in no mood for this stupid discussion, she could not even put a coherent argument forward – just emotional bullshit.

There have been some high profile activists from Carmen Lawrence whom I later found out was not a member, author Tim Winton [another non-member] and former player Dale Kickett. I have no issues with the right to protest, to be fair and balanced, these people are raising their concerns in a respectful manner, so in that regard, I am ok.

What we really need is some consistency here, these same people appear to have no issues with the AGL sponsorship of the West Coast Eagles, the highest polluting company in Australia. Nor are these very same people concerned about Mineral Resources the naming rights of the West Coast Eagles home ground, Mineral Resources Park. Part of the portfolio of Mineral Resources is energy, that includes oil and gas exploration – seriously.

But let’s not stop here, fast food giant Hungry Jacks [Burger King] adds to obesity, now the number one cause of death in Australia. Obesity has now overtaken smoking, alcohol abuse and illicit drugs as the leading cause of hospitisation and death in Australia. McDonald’s is an AFL sponsor and also sponsors the Fremantle Football Club in direct competition to the West Coast Eagles.

In what could only be viewed as an extraordinary case of double standards, the sponsorship of AGL Energy of cross town rivals has not been mentioned, yet AGL Energy is Australia’s largest polluter. As a duty of disclosure, I own shares in both Woodside and AGL and although my AGL shares have underperformed, I remained committed to this company. However, I fully expect both these business enterprises to transition to renewable energy gradually. I may consider Mineral Resources in the future if they meet my investment needs, currently I do not hold any shares in Mineral Resources.

As the formalities of the meeting ended we were able to discuss topics with high ranking members of the club. I spoke with CEO Simon Garlick how we knew this line of questioning was going to be raised and how the club can better respond. My suggestion was to highlight the $5 billion investment in clean energy and renewables by Woodside Limited, a significant investment. Notwithstanding, Woodside has invested heavily in the clubs indigenous program, Fremantle Football Club has the strongest indigenous links in the league.

Simon listened, he replied that Woodside Limited are not that good at promoting their clean energy credentials and I agreed. There is no reason why the board cannot highlight Woodside major clean energy initiatives at the meeting and press conferences. That does not mean that the club should do all the work for Woodside, what they need to do is help with the narrative and how Woodside is transitioning to clean energy.

When the abuse gets personal, you know you are winning the argument. My attitude is you have to learn how to not only absorb pressure, you have to learn how to deal with conflict.

When dealing with workplace issues, there is bound to be conflict, how well you handle that conflict is the key to success. In a similar ideal to online abuse, the people who generally seek to undermine you are the under-performers, so it doesn’t concern me. I have a degree of arrogance to these people, you have to. This makes them even more hostile as I don’t even attempt to communicate with them. These people are angry individuals, angry with the world and angry with people who are more competent than they are.

My attitude is, why waste energy on losers. They are losers because they never tried to get ahead, they lack the drive and the ability. I have no issues with individuals who try, but lack the competence to achieve higher levels – they give their best. But the losers who seek to undermine you, they are targets. I love coming up against these fools, they are easy to run-over. They lack the cognitive ability to challenge you, they take personal shots, that’s all they have, they certainly don’t have the mental ability to offer solutions.

So I cracked open a bottle of 2019 Fermoy Estate merlot. I am a wine club member, so I purchase a case every three months. I had become tired of their cabernet sauvignon, switched to shiraz, didn’t like that as much so switched again to merlot. I am not normally a merlot drinker, so this is a bit of a change for me. The obvious question is, did I like the merlot? The answer is yes, I liked it. The next question is value for money, is the 2019 merlot worth $35? I would again answer yes, but I would have to say it is fully priced.

This is a 90% merlot and 10% cabernet sauvignon, the aroma is black cherry and plum, the palate is plums and cherry and the tannins do not overpower this wine. The 2019 spent 18 months on oak with a combination of new and old French barriques. This wine has 14.5% alcohol with a cellaring potential around 6 years. The Fermoy Estate winery is on Metricup Rd in Wilyabrup, this is a pretty well known sub-region within the Margaret River wine region with Moss Wood, Lenton Brae, Woodlands and Evans & Tate all close by, this is a great little sub-region surrounded by quality wineries.