The Trump win

We still have a few months to go before inauguration, the Biden Administration is already beginning the peaceful transition of power to a second Trump Administration. What we are witnessing is no unproven claims of voter fraud or claims of vote tampering. I will very much doubt we will see a march to Congress on January 6th or widespread social unrest. Funny how no voter fraud occurs when you win, but fraud occurs when you lose.

Donald Trump wins 2024 presidential election - POLITICO

What we did witness was the failure of the Kamala Harris team to develop a narrative, it was clearly not enough to claim Trump was a criminal. I would suggest the attempts to impeach Trump really helped his case. The first failure of the Biden Administration was the halting of construction of the border wall with Mexico. The project was started and should have been completed no matter who was in power. Kamala Harris as Vice President was allocated the task of stopping the flood of immigrants- that was a failure.

The Democrats clearly lost the support of working Americans, first they lost white American workers, then Latino American workers and finally black American workers. This was clearly a major problem, should they seek to return to [and remain in] power in four years time, they need to address this pressing issue. Clearly the Democrats sent an incorrect message to the American public, they really need to reflect on who they represent.

Will the Trump Administration bring manufacturing back to the US? That would be unlikely in the next four years, yet what Trump did was offer them hope, something that Kamala Harris was unable to do. Instead, the Democrats pushed this social agenda that alienated large parts of the US, the vocal woke brigade pushing these fringe issues pretty much turned the population off. Bill Clinton summed it up perfectly back in the 1990s with the “it is the economy stupid” phrase.

So Trump looks like he will raise tariffs against a large number of nations. Australia has a free-trade agreement with the US that sees greater imports into Australia from the US than exports from Australia into the US. It would be unlikely that tariffs would be raised against Australia with such a trade imbalance. Where Australia could benefit is if the US engages in trade and tariff actions against other nations, Australia has the ability to offer goods and services to affected nations.

My concerns are with Ukraine, Tramp and Vance have had some negative comments against Zelensky in particular and Ukraine in general. Trump simplistically thinks Zelensky should negotiate with Putin from a position of weakness and get a deal done. Total madness, Ukraine was pushing hard against Russia until the Republicans withheld military funding placing Ukraine in a venerable position. All the gains Ukraine made were destroyed by inward looking Republicans. Trump is a fanboy of Putin, he could offer him everything he wants, there is a chance Trump could withdraw the US from NATO, that is a real possibility. Trump claims he could stop the Russian-Ukraine war in a day if he comes to power, surrendering to a bad deal could easily stop the war, but seriously, this needs to be a good deal for Ukraine.

What does this mean to Australia from a defence standpoint? The nuclear submarine deal could be scuttled, Australia is already increasing capacity Fleet Base West in anticipation of nuclear submarine maintenance and repairs at the facilities. This will be for British and US nuclear submarines before the Australian nuclear submarines come on line. There is already a US marine contingent in Darwin with US strategic bombers based at Tindal air base in Katherine.

Will we see similar dysfunction as we witnessed in the first Trump Administration? You would expect Donald to get smarter, we will see. Elon Musk has been a very vocal supporter of Trump, I would expect Elon to try to exert pressure on regulatory bodies that he views as hindering him. Democratic institutions could well be compromised, Trump has clearly indicated he prefers the strongarm approach to power, most would expect him to abuse this power now that he looks like having as close to absolute power a US President can hold.

The Heuer Cortina

The Heuer Cortina is an interesting style of timepiece, in the late 1970s Heuer was changing and upgrading models on a frequent basis. The octagon case was very de rigueur, the integrated bracelet and octagon case has made a comeback and reemerged as a highly prized style. At the time, this was very much a 1970s style that was in demand.

Heuer Cortina – Analog:Shift

The 39 mm octagon case that merges into the single link integrated bracelet, the upper case is brushed in a concentric pattern, the case is a pretty good size for most wrists. There was a blue dial reference 510.513, matte black painted dial reference 110.233N with index markers and white enamel dial reference 110.233R with roman numerals. The flat single link bracelet is a style I like, merges seamlessly with the case, the bracelet links are brushed as well.

The Calibre 12 was used in a number of Heuer models beginning with the Monaco in 1969, the left-hand crown and right-hand pusher to operate the two chronograph sub-dials. The Cortina had a black dial [Reference 110.233N], blue dial [Reference 510.513] and white dial [Reference 110.233R] variants. The blue dial 510.513 with the sunray dial and day/date at 3 o’clock position works well. The sub-dials are located at the 6 o’clock and 9 o’clock positions and the orange second hand and 6 o’clock sub dial.

The Tissot Chemin des Tourelles

I have an interest in the Tissot Chemin des Tourelles, I was checking out this Tissot timepiece online and thought the styling was pretty decent. This is the point where I start to crave a timepiece and if I am not careful walk out of the shop with a carry bag and hole in my wallet. The brown leather strap version works well with the blue dial, I like the case shape and simple index marker dial as it is clear and uncluttered. The dial is not overworked, the Tissot name and 1853 at the top and lower Chemin des Tourelles and Powermatic 80 in the lower dial is crisp.

Tissot Chemin des Tourelles Powermatic 80 42mm

I had a weekend not sailing so headed down Karrinyup shopping centre. There is a local jeweller that I frequently purchase items from, so I wandered in through Mazzucchelli’s door and started browsing, the Chemin des Tourelles was my first selection. Firstly I was looking at Longines in the corner, but today, that was not really my interest, however, that would be for a later visit.

I like the five link bracelet, however, this is a little similar to the Seamaster bracelet, but thinner in thickness and using a pin and collet retainer system. I prefer the sunray dial with the index markers, I prefer the classic styling and do note they have a number of dial options to choose from. The Chemin des Tourelles has a couple of dial options, the Roman numerals at the 3, 6, 9 and 12 o’clock positions and index markers at all other positions is not what works for me.

Ultimately, the Chemin des Tourelles was too similar to the Gentlemen so I decided to not pursue this option as much as I liked the style. When I wear the Gentlemen it really does not pop on my wrist, I do not dislike this watch but never get looks or comments like my Omega Seamaster, Union Glashütte Belisar or TAG Heuer Aquaracer does. Not that this is my motivation, but I do get questioned from both watch and non watch enthusiasts.

What I have noticed based on wrist time is the Omega and the Belisar are summer watches, they are worn with short sleeves, the Tissot collection gets a run in winter under a long sleeve or jacket. In our family, Tissot is pretty popular, my father has a Visodate and PR100 so I have plenty of options. Ironically I walked out of the jeweller with a PRX with Powermatic 80 movement instead, so I ended up pretty happy.

The MBA Advantage

I was browsing in Boffin’s Bookstore in Perth looking for some engineering book, mostly I was looking for PLC, that is programmed logic control, automation and pneumatic/electronic controllers when I had a look around in the business section.

Boffin’s specialises in technical and reference books, needless to say, their business book section is pretty comprehensive. There are a number of MBA books around and I don’t have much interest in purchasing another MBA overview book when I already have What the Best MBAs Know, The Ten Day MBA and MBA in a Day. But whist I was browsing I saw The MBA Advantage and decided to flick through. Much to my surprise I noticed this book was published by UWA Press, this is the publications section of the University of Western Australia. All of a sudden, this publication had relevance to me.

The bookshop was closing so I didn’t have an opportunity to browse further but I was certainly interested. As I am from Perth, I expected the experiences and perspective of the multiple authors would tend to hold a west coast view. Most MBA course overview books tend to be American and thus promote American perspectives; all good, but an Australian perspective is particularly attractive to me. When I read What the Best MBAs Know, this inspired me to undertake a mature age MBA.

So this book is by far my most influential read and I am so glad I took the time to read this interesting and ultimately inspiring book. I still use as a quick reference book as whilst it is not as comprehensive as a reference book, I can use it as a quick guide when I need to recall a model or read up on a theory I have trouble recalling.

Business books such as MBA course overview publications tend to follow a specific overview of an MBA course and present the theories, models and methodologies of an MBA education. Now that I already own three MBA course overview books, I would be interested in something a little different and The MBA Advantage makes an interesting reference book for me.

Russian torture and war crimes in Bucha

There have been so many atrocities in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this was really highlighted to the world after Russian troops were routed from Bucha. The war crimes that occurred in Ukraine were unbelievable, the western world and more importantly Europe were paralysed by inaction allowing this abuse to manifest.

Bucha

In what was a remarkable response to the aerial footage of the dead bodies strewn on the streets by Russian troops, the Kremlin response was these were actors in a staged scene. Russian misinformation is incredibly well organised, better managed than their military operations, their cyber unit is well resourced and executed. The Russian cyber unit is well resourced and reasonably well run, I have to admit, they run a professional show.

The residents of Bucha were gunned down as they walked down the street heading to the shops for food, they were left on the street where they fell. Ukraine has a war crime investigation unit who document these crimes against humanity. When Russia is ousted from Ukraine they will be taken to the International Criminal Court where they will be tried. As the war has dragged on into the third year, we are tending to forget the barbarity that occurred in the early days of the war and we should never forget that.

The Heuer Daytona

I am a huge fan of the vintage Heuer collection, the chronographs from the 1960s and 1970s are of particular interest to me. During the 1970s Heuer was releasing new chronographs every couple of years with the Daytona radically different in design to the Carrera.

Vintage Heuer Daytona Collection | TAG Heuer ®

The Daytona chronograph best known as the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona, the only chronograph in the Rolex collection. How Heuer came up with the Daytona name is their motorsport pedigree, the Daytona racetrack at Daytona Beach, Florida. The Daytona name was to appeal to US markets as Daytona International Speedway, home of the Daytona 500 race.

The movement is the in-house Calibre 12 based on the Calibre 11 architecture of the Monaco, Carrera and Autavia of the late 1960s. The left-hand crown with two chronograph pushers is a distinctive feature of the Daytona along with the two horizontal sub-dials. The 39 mm brushed stainless steel case has no lugs with an integrated bracelet. I really like the rounded edges of the Daytona, the bevels on the three link bracelet suit the rounded case.

The date window at the 6 o’clock position really balances the dial, the two sub-dial arrangement at the 3 o’clock and 9 o’clock is nicely balanced. The angled chapter ring with tachygraph keeps the design compact allowing the rounded case design, this is what makes the Daytona one of the best designs of the era. The plexiglass crystal was flush with the case, so this was a reasonably compact design that I would like to see revived at some point.

Promoted on merit within the government

When you are employed by the government whether it be federal, state or local; the authorities seek to stamp out the practice of cronyism. This is achieved by promoting by merit with potential candidates assessed against specific selection criteria.

To support such a process, an independent selection committee is convened that generally consists of a chairperson, normally the head of that department with the two other members possibly selected from outside of the business unit or division. A representative from human resources may also be involved as an observer with no input to the candidate but offers HR advice to panel members.

A competitive field is established with a written application addressing specific selection criteria; this is usually a combination of behavioral and technical skills and attributes. It is indeed a skill to write an outstanding application; this is the primary means to judge an applicant. I wrongly believed this was the step to get you to the interview stage – not so.

I also learnt, even if you address the selection criteria, you may not be deemed as suitable for interview as they apply a non-transparent rating system. It is then up to the selection panel to provide feedback on unsuccessful applications, but you have to request feedback, it is not freely given. What I have learned is to always demand written feedback, the selection panel will try to get out of this – you need to insist. Now the onus is placed on the panel to explain why your application failed and they need to tell you why.

This is where the selection panel unravels; firstly they will try to tell you over the phone as they are generally a) lazy, b) incorrect in their assessment and c) hiding a preference for their pre-selected candidate. Written feedback is exactly that, an evidence trail justifying their decision process where verbal feedback and the selection process is frequently denied; despite all their attempts, a written response is required.

I began my first selection processes positively within the state government, my first three applications were successful and I was full of confidence – then I hit the ceiling. If you are lucky enough to be shortlisted and you get to the interview stage, you have more than questions to contend with. More than likely the department has already pre-selected their successor, this is usually given in support for workplace initiatives by the manager or their cronies.

If you are lucky enough to face a selection panel that is truly independent, then you just might be in with a chance of actually getting the job. If not, then you can try your luck at the supposedly independent public sector commission – but just remember, they are a government body too. Getting promoted within the government is a tricky business; you need to network, frequently, attend pointless meetings, play the political games and most importantly support the winning candidate. Competence, hard work and experience are no longer required.

So, what’s next?

So what’s next? Palestinian terrorist Yahya Sinwar was eliminated on Thursday night Perth time, this is a monumental win for the Israeli defence forces. They publicly stated they would hunt this terrorist down and when I woke up Friday morning his death wax confirmed. As Sinwar had been held in the Israeli prison system, his fingerprints, dental records and DNA were used to identify him.

Small, Ugly, Broken": Israel Soldier's Time Alone With Yahya Sinwar's Body

So with a decentralised leadership structure used in terrorist cells, they will have a successor, possibly his brother Mohammad Sinwar. However, Sinwar was the leading cause of holding up peace discussions, he was a hardcore terrorist that used the Palestinian people as collateral, their lives were meaningless to him. Sinwar had been the enforcer of Hamas, he had tortured and murdered Palestinian people accused of collaborating with Israel.

I expected no tears and crying in the streets of Gaza, this is a person who clearly brought pain and despair to Gaza residents. Hopefully Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can use this leadership vacuum to draw Hamas fighters out of the tunnels to surrender, they can allow humanitarian aid to be brought into Gaza and they can persuade Hamas leaders to release the hostages to end the conflict. There will be no end to this war until the remaining hostages are returned.

There are still operational issues with Hezbollah to the north, I would expect them to be defeated in the next four to six weeks. Their leadership and communication have been killed and disrupted, their fighting force is being dismantled and I am confident they will lose. Just as Hamas must be annihilated in Gaza, Hezbollah must face annihilation in southern Lebanon.

Then there is Iran, what will they do? They had plans of defeating Israel through Hamas and Hezbollah, those plans are in tatters. Yes, they have launched missiles directly at Israel with limited success. Yes, some missiles have hit their targets, however for the best part, most missiles have been intercepted and shot down. There is a chance of a wider conflict erupting in the middle east, they would do well to consider their strategic defeat.

The death of Yahya Sinwar

I was working late on Thursday night when a newsflash popped up, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had potentially been killed in Gaza in a military operation. As I checked through news pages seeking further information, the Israeli Defence Forces had reported that a person fitting the appearance of Sinwar had been killed and the IDF were investigating.

Israel says it may have killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - MarketWatch

The death of terrorist Yahya Sinwar would be a boost for Israel, the architect of the October 7 terrorist attack is a major win for Benjamin Netanyahu who vowed to eliminate Hamas leadership and dismantle their military capabilities in Gaza. Sinwar was believed to be hiding with hostages as human shields in the tunnels in Gaza. So it will be interesting to learn how Sinwar was separated from his human shields and eliminated by IDF personnel. There are still more than 100 hostages being held for over a year in Gaza; hopefully, a step forward to securing their release.

Internally, Hamas leadership had been fighting with hardliner Sinwar believing Palestinian deaths are necessary to destabalise and defeat Israel. The Palestinian people are nothing to Sinwar, they are just collateral to be abused to achieve his objectives. Then, there are others in Hamas who believe they can achieve some political legitimacy by preserving Palestinian lives to achieve a Palestinian state in Israel. Sinwar had been the leader in Gaza since 2017 after Ismail Haniyeh had been killed and then took charge of the the political bureau after Ismail Haniyeh was assasinated in Tehran in July.

Diving the Skyraider

When ever I am in the Philippines I head up to Arizona Dive Centre at Subic Bay for some wreck diving. A number of eras of wrecks are available to dive from the Spanish-American War, the Second World War and the Vietnam War.

New Build Project - 85-inch Douglas Skyraider - Reduced Ziroli Design -  Model Airplane News

The Skyraider is a Vietnam War era aircraft that is located not too far from the airfield. I don’t know much about the event leading up to why the aircraft is in the water, one suspects an incident arising not long after take-off. There is still a parachute in the rear section of the aircraft and there was previously an oxygen mask next to the rear seat that is now gone. The boat crew locate the wreck in the bay via GPS and send a shot line down.

Every time I have dived the wreck with Arizona the shot line has just been a number of meters away from the starboard wing – they get it right. The wreck is small so the plan is to move slowly over the wreck checking every detail. The engine and propeller are missing and haven’t yet been located although we have spent a little time looking. The engine mounting is still attached so looking in there is always good, the air intake is also interesting.

The depth is reasonable, around about 36 meters so a nitrox dive gives you a reasonable time to explore the wreck. For me, the 50 caliber guns mounted on the wings is a highlight of this dive. Arizona Dive Centre are a fairly conservative dive Centre so a EAN28 mix is generally chosen, I would prefer a higher partial pressure as I was taught a 1.5 ATA was selected as best gas mix. As I’m diving with other divers who follow a more conservative profile, I generally select a similar mix as them.

These days I dive in a backplate and wing so it is pretty easy to run a set of doubles or carry a single tank with either a EAN50 mix or 100% O2 depending upon what is available. I carry a handheld HID dive light that throws out a blue beam like a light sabre. The visibility is usually poor on this dive and can get a whole lot worse with the silty bottom. Luckily for me, only the first dive has been wiped out by a hard kicking and over-weighted newly certified advanced open water diver.

I generally dive this site with experienced divers who take pride in their buoyancy and don’t kick up silt and destroying the site for the other divers in the group. The ascent is back up the shot line located a few meters from the starboard wing where all mandatory stops are executed. A hang tank if attached to the surface marker so any divers low on gas can breathe off the rig. The boat is not attached to the shot line as it would drag the weight, instead they just hang around the vicinity, they know the runtime and move in and pick up surfaced divers as required.