The Ukrainian push into Russian territory continues, no one is really sure of the strategic goals, sure, we all speculate but no one knows for sure. I am seeing a trend, this will be much longer than anticipated incursion. I initially thought this would be a foray into Russia to shake them up, then a strategic pullback, this is not the case, as we are learning – this is way bigger.

What we do know is Ukraine has pulled defensive troops and equipment out of the Donbas region to engage in this spectacular offensive. As a consequence, Russians have been forced to flee the Kurst region, some are headed north to the major cities Moscow and St Petersburg, Putin cannot hide this from the population any longer.

I suspect with winter approaching, this offensive has been brilliantly timed to cause Russian refugees fleeing the fighting into temporary accommodation just as the Russian winter approaches. As Ukraine drives deeper into Russian territory with drones targeting energy resources, the loss of energy transmission decreases. This will force the western Russian population into energy shortages in winter. No longer can troops or equipment mass on the border with any degree of safety, Russian airfields are being hit deep into Russian territory – they are no longer safe.

Putin ordered the special military operation, aka the Ukrainian war without provocation and turned a 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine into a 2024 Ukrainian invasion of Russia. In the four weeks of the defense of Russia, Putin has been unable to stop or turn back the Ukrainian invasion forces. What Putin did was launch missiles, troops and aircraft into Ukraine from behind the safety of the Russian borders.

The NATO aligned countries had prevented Ukraine from using supplied weapons directly against Russian territory. Another red line had been crossed, Putin was bluffing and NATO countries must now be emboldened, all the posturing that prevented NATO from acting decisively has now vanished. Had NATO acted properly, this war would now be fought on Ukrainian terms if it was still going at all. The NATO mistakes has cost the brave Ukrainian forces dearly in terms of lives lost, wounded and incapacitated and equipment.