The Ukrainian invasion of Russia would be hilarious if Ukrainian lives were not being lost in this offensive. Throughout this war of existence for Ukraine, they have been hindered by NATO inaction and fumbling. NATO has only supplied enough weaponry for Ukraine to not be overrun by the fascist forces of Ukraine, the West has really let Ukraine down through fear of retaliation.

Had NATO not diddled their way through the early stages of the war, Ukrainian forces would have overrun the Russian forces whilst they were in total disarray. Instead, they were allowed to regroup and dig in building multiple lines of defences during the winter months. When Ukraine sought to start their summer offensive, they were forced to wait for equipment supplies whist Russia laid mines, dragon teeth obstacles and dug trenches.

Ukraine could not mount a NATO doctrine combined arms offensive as they did hold air superiority, their ground forces were exposed to defensive actions by a much larger Russian army. Then, when the US Congress led by the Republican party held up supplies, the Ukrainian forces were starved of munitions and supplies. All the gains they made were eroded as they could barely hold on, Russian forces were making advances and Ukraine had not only lost momentum, they were now losing this war.

Donald Trump blamed the Biden Administration for the bungled withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan, but let us look into this further. The Trump Administration set the timeframe withdrawal, Trump was defeated in the polls and the Biden Administration sworn in, instead they were banging on about stolen election when they knew full well they lost the election. The pullout was extended by the Biden Administration but they were really locked in, they could not take an escalation of this conflict to the American people so were forced to meet this [extended] timeframe.

So why did Ukraine invade Russia? Whilst this is a limited offensive, they have made a point. They have undermined Putin’s authority, not only are Russian forces bogged down in Ukraine and taking serious casualties, they cannot defend their own country. They have brought this conflict home to Russia. What we know is Russia stations their troops from the poorer eastern regions on the frontline in Ukraine as cannon fodder, their more affluent troops from the Moscow and St Petersburg regions have more sway, they are more vocal and could place pressure on Putin himself.

Putin cannot let this situation escalate on home soil, so far what we have seen is mass surrender by young inexperienced troops kept well behind the front lines. These surrenders indicate an unwillingness to fight for Russia on Russian soil; these troops know they are better treated in Ukrainian captivity than by their own commanders. This is great for Ukraine, this capitulation cannot be hidden from the Russian people, the Special Military Operation has now resulted in a Russian invasion.

Russians are being evacuated from the Kursk region, they are fleeing from their homes with nothing but their clothes they are wearing. Even the tightly controlled Russian media is failing to quell this story. There is panic in Russia, they know that the nation of Russia is being invaded by the smaller Ukraine, they know that if NATO was to get involved now, western Russia would be quickly overrun.by rampaging NATO forces crossing in from Estonia, further north from Finland and through Ukraine.

The Russian invincibility promoted by Putin is in complete disarray, by now the Russian people are starting to wake up to the fact that Putin the strong man has put the whole country in peril. If the American leadership had any vision, they would be pushing for the the defeat of Russia. So far, all they have done is squandered multiple opportunities. Putin has made Russia weaker, even with Belarus providing a buffer, Finland to the north, Estonia further south and now Ukraine can be the staging country for a Poland led charge.

What Putin will need to do is pull frontline troops and supplies out of Ukraine and redeploy well into Russia. What we know is Ukraine has deployed battle hardened troops to Russia. The Chechen TikTok troops who normally guard the rear to prevent desertion are coming under fire themselves and we are seeing they are neither well trained, well motivated or even remotely competent. What we now know about the Chechen troops is they are not as competent as they claim, they are better known for their uploaded videos and sexually assaulting  Russian troops. 

Watching this unfold is interesting, what is Ukraine trying to achieve here? They want to put pressure on the Russian hierarchy domestically, to reorganise and redistribute Russian troops from Ukraine back to Russia, to hold Russian land for negotiation and put pressure on their supply chains. Ukraine has really rattled Russia here, if they press their advantage hard and the NATO countries do not let them down after being paralysed with indecision, they could defeat Russia here.