Mainland Europe is ill equipped to handle the aggressive expansion of Russia. Poland has determined they have some real issues and are building up their military to defend itself. Germany, France and even the United Kingdom have degraded their military to such an extent that they can no longer act as a deterrent.

The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have real strategic issues, Russian aggression is real and with the coastal enclave of Kaliningrad along with the Suwałki Gap, that is the security threat for Poland. Putin has long felt NATO is divided and indecisive, the sketchy support of Ukraine supports Putin’s theory, Putin feels he has the right to invade the Baltic countries, he has moved the Russian economy to a wartime footing,.

There is some discussion that Putin will attack NATO countries during or after the US elections when the president elect has yet to take office. That means Putin is banking on Trump deposing Joe Biden and a leadership vacuum appears, Biden has no mandate and Trump undermines his position. Trump does no play a team game and would likely trash talk the departing president, that will create tension in an already divided congress.

If the Baltic nations are attacked, I see Poland tasked with stopping the Russian advance further west, they will have the strongest military in Europe in the next five years. Putin is sensing this also, he may see this as the opportunity before Poland becomes too powerful. Poland has had a patriotic surge in enlistment service, the Polish people see the threat to their nation, they do not want to live under Russian occupation again.

Trump has previously undermined NATO with his isolationist policies, he has publicly stated allies and partners need to pay more. Trump has spoken about closing bases around the world, this is sending a message to Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping and this is the US is retreating worldwide. China has been aggressive against the poorer nations in Asia, even against Japan who is seeking to build up their military to counter the Chinese threat. We will see some interesting posturing by both Russia and China during the US presidential elections.