Ukraine should consider attacking Kaliningrad, for what reason you ask? Well, Ukraine will have to negotiate an end to the war at some point and they need a strong negotiating base to successfully pursue a positive outcome. The Chinese position is Russia keeps the territory they have gained through aggression, this is an unacceptable outcome.

Putin has his eyes set on retaining Crimea, they illegally annexed this part of Ukraine in 2014 and have held it since. For Putin to give up control of Crimea, if he was to lose control of Kaliningrad, that might be considered a decent trade. We give you back Kaliningrad for a straight swap for Crimea – a reasonable trade.

The loss of Kaliningrad, even for a short period will severely damage Putin’s credibility internally, Russia attacks Ukraine, suffers severe losses, damages the economy, suffers a massive loss of life, and a significant loss of equipment. The reputational damage to the Russian military setting back Russian military prowess for at least another decade. We have learned the Russian troops are poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led and are not motivated.

But how would Ukraine pull off such a feat? Already Ukraine has called for a general moblisation, Ukraine for all their fight have suffered horrific losses. If they were to engage in a raid on Kaliningrad and seize the territory, Russia would need to divert forces for a counter-offensive to attempt to take the territory back.

Russia already has Finland on their border as a NATO member, this has been a horrible consequence of their aggression against Ukraine. The small Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are understandably nervous, a short bridge connects Russia to Estonia, it would be a simple maneuver to invade Estonia – even if they destroy the bridge. Russia now has NATO countries at most of their western borders with only Belarus as a buffer.

Yes, the Baltic nations are NATO members, but from what we have seen, NATO has been indecisive and if the US withdraws support from NATO. This is a massive concern if Trump is elected for a second term if Biden is defeated. Trump has previously undermined NATO in his first term, his isolationist policies gives Putin hope that NATO could crumble. Trump is mostly concerned with internal politics and retribution for his political career enemies.

What Putin is hanging out for is the Biden Administration to be defeated and Trump to be returned to power. Putin believes he has Trump’s measure and can easily control Donald. Putin has a point, there is more than a general concern that Trump lacks the prowess to control Putin as he is a one dimensional character with significant flaws who does not put national interests above personal interests.