What we are seeing in Israel is forces massing close to Gaza, there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Israeli forces will be entering Gaza to destroy Hamas. At this point, Hamas is still firing rockets into Israel from what appears to be their vast resources. The question we will be asking over the next weeks is, will the whole of Gaza be reduced to rubble?

Israel is pulling equipment and manpower from the north, with these resources reduced, Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Syria may feel emboldened to attack Israel from the north. A US Carrier Strike Group, the USS Gerald Ford along with Ticonderoga class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60) along with Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) are in the Mediterranean Sea and are without doubt providing security for Israel’s exposed northern border.

I do not envision US military assets getting involved in the storming of Gaza, they are there to provide a security umbrella just in case a dictator or regime gets any silly ideas. A show of force, this will offer a very strong deterrence to any nations. Gaza is now in siege mode, no supplies coming in, no diesel, so there is no power generation, no water and no food coming in – the water is turned off. Whilst we are seeing Hamas rockets targeting Israeli hospitals, I would think Palestinian hospitals are likely to remain largely intact. 

We all saw the footage how Hamas stormed the border fence in a highly coordinated attack with paragliders, gunmen on motorbikes, light vehicles and running through. From what we have learned, they had specific orders to target civilians, take hostages and terrorise individuals. Hamas went from house-to-house murdering inhabitants, raping women and brutalising people. I am envisioning a massive urban battle with Israeli ground forces supported by tanks fight street-to-street against Hamas. 

The Israeli forces will be exposed, they will be taking losses as Hamas has a well established series of tunnels in Gaza. I don’t see Hamas running away, they hate Israel and want to kill Jews, they see this as their big opportunity. I am expecting to see Israeli artillery line up on the border and pound Gaza into submission. So far, the Palestinians have been unable to escape Gaza, Egypt does not want them in their country and have so far been unwilling to open the Rafah border crossing. 

Will Hezbollah allow passage of Palestinians into Lebanon or will Assad take refugees into Syria? The logistics alone will be difficult, this will require moving people over land through Israel. More likely to enter Egypt and set up refugee camps in the Sinai and move people by sea through Lebanon, but I see this as an unlikely scenario. It is more likely to have refugee camps guarded by Egyptian military then allowed back into the devastation of Gaza after Hamas has been defeated.