I was watching a YouTube video from Kings and Generals on Why Do We Call the War in Ukraine Unprovoked? – Debunking Russian Claims and the question was raised. The narrator asked us to think back to February 23, 2002 and ask these questions. 

What would have happened if Russia did not invade Ukraine. 1) Would Russia be attacked by NATO or Ukraine? 2) Was Ukraine strong enough to liberate the Russian controlled Crimea and Donbas region? Clearly the answer to both these questions are no, Ukraine was not going to attack Russia. Neither was NATO going to attack Russia, even with Russia invading Ukraine NATO has not stepped in to battle Russia. Neither was Ukraine going to start a war with Russia over Crimea, they were trying to use diplomatic means to regain their territory.

Yes, NATO countries have supplied weapons to Ukraine, there is a very good reason for this. This was to curb Russian aggression, NATO has been training the Ukrainian military since 2014 after the Russian invasion of Crimea. NATO countries were worried if Russia plowed through Ukraine, they were next. Poland has a very large and very capable military, all with one objective, to defeat Russia. Based on what we learnt in Ukraine, Poland could defeat Russia on their own in a conventional war and they are increasing their military based on what they have seen in Ukraine.

Poland lived under Soviet occupation during the post world war II period and never wanted to return to Russian occupation. Moldova, a non-NATO aligned country with a very small military, already has Russian troops stationed in Transnistria in their territory. Russia is claiming this territory as their own – as they do. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine, Moldova escapes invasion as long as Ukraine holds up and drains the Russian military is focused on defeating Ukraine. 

The Soviet military doctrine is flawed, Russia gained control of the former Soviet artillery [and shells] and tanks. Russia is pulling some very old tanks out of storage, this is good for NATO countries as Ukraine is draining Russian resources and future capability. NATO no longer fears Russian land battle doctrine, they are seeing Russian strategy and tactics and will be studying the Russian invasion failures for decades to come.