When dealing with authoritarian leaders, the cost of doing nothing far outweighs the cost of action. We have the United Nations, this has unfortunately become an ineffective organisation more interested in cocktail parties and talk-fests. The Security Council with the five permanent members, the then nuclear powers and the right to veto military actions.

This is an outdated philosophy, only the United States and possibly China are superpowers, the UK, France and Russia are spent powers, their heyday has passed. There is really no place for Russia on the UN Security Council, their veto power is abused and this does nothing for the world, there are additional nuclear powers that should also be involved – including North Korea and Israel.

When we look at what the world, more so the western world, has allowed, I view this as a failure of leadership. When the Putin dictatorship invaded Chechnya in 1999, the world watched on, as the second conflict erupted, nothing happened as the Chechen were defeated and Putin puppet Razan Kadyrov was installed to control the people.

Likewise, when Putin’s forces invaded nearby Georgia in 2008, the world collectively did nothing and Georgia was subdued in a matter of days, this is understandable, the Russian military overwhelms non-peer nations. So, where does this leave Russia as a fallen power? Georgia fell to Russian control in a matter of days as they received no support from the western world – we just left them to lose.

The newly elected Obama administration wanting to improve relations with the Kremlin was weak in negotiations. The ceasefire brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy favoured Russia sending a clear message to President Putin, this behaviour is acceptable and would be tolerated. The Kremlin views this attempt to offer concessions as weakness, they know they can gain benefits they were unlikely to get by other means.

Just recently in 2021, after unrest in Kazakhstan, Russian forces entered Almaty and took control of the capital and quelled the protests. A friend of mine was in Almaty when Russian troops arrived, he just made it to the airport after Russian troops were erecting roadblocks and checkpoints. He returned two weeks later after his leave was over, the unrest was over and Russian soldiers patrolled the streets.

Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, the poorly trained and equipped Ukrainian troops had no chance, Russia quickly established control of Crimea and no real international pressure was applied. After that period, Ukrainian troops received NATO training and integrated western military doctrine and tactics into their armed forces. This western strategy is effective against Russia, sure Ukraine is receiving western weapons and intelligence, but they are the ones fighting the enemy, show them how to operate these weapons and they will do it.

I can see Putin’s reasoning here, he expected a lightning raid on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv to seize control of the country, kill President Zelensky or Zelensky flees the country and lives out his life in exile. Either way, Ukraine is ineffective and weak so Putin wins. Instead Zelensky has shown great leadership to unite has country against this barbaric enemy that is ill prepared for the modern battlefield.

We see Zelensky out with his troops, every one of them is armed and he does not fear for his life. Zelensky was there not long after the liberation of Kherson, he was at the front lines at Bakhmut before he jetted off to directly address the US Congress to secure support and weapons. Do we see Putin out on the front lines with his troops? Not a chance, Putin is going nowhere near armed soldiers, he knows what will happen, he will be shot and the war is over.

Putin then stations troops in Ukraine, steals the riches of the country whilst setting up a pro-Russian puppet government where Putin dictates the terms, he runs the country through proxy. NATO and the European Union would do nothing, they will hold some meetings for no tangible outcomes, condemn Putin in public but then collectively sit on their hands and engage mostly in infighting.

This is straight out of the Russian playbook, they feel the west is weak and ineffective and it was hard to argue otherwise. The strong defence of Ukraine has taken everyone by surprise and has suddenly woken up western Europe and the world. Look at Russia’s allies, Iran and North Korea; what other large or medium power wants to side with Russia? Not even China wants to align with Russia.

Sure China and India are buying Russian oil cheaply, they are seeing an opportunity and whilst I don’t condone their actions, I see what they are doing here. The price cap on Russian oil is a great move, nations who still rely on Russian oil in the short to medium term will eventually find new suppliers and they cannot shut down their economies, they need a transition period to identify new suppliers.

We have not seen the invasion of a European nation since the second world war. Putin frequently cites the Nazi line, but it was Hitler’s Nazi regime that invaded European nations. There is a distinct similarity in authoritative regimes and invading sovereign nations. We can all see the authoritarian regime invading a democracy is a crime against humanity. The fascist government of the Russian Federation only knows brutality, they are learning that the Russian way is a failed methodology.