There was a misconception that the Ukrainian counter offensive was going to happen pretty fast. The spring offensive has turned into the summer offensive and will likely take back territory in 2023 before the winter defensive lull before a resumption of offensive activities in 2024. The last offensive from Ukraine to liberate Kharkiv in the north and then Kherson in the south has fueled expectations that Ukraine will make such large gains immediately – this has created unrealistic expectations.

Russian forces have had a long time to dig in defensive positions, they have mined positions and set up dragon teeth anti-tank defenses. They are not anti-tank insofar as they do not completely stop tanks and other armored vehicles. Instead a slow down armour allowing a counter attack on the tank is probable. Ukraine is losing tanks, when they hit a mine the tank might not be totally destroyed, the crew is likely to survive unlike a Russian tank, still, they lose an asset.

Ukraine has not committed reserves, they have run in small groupings probing for weakness in lines. What I expect to see is a mass of armour and infantry in blitzkrieg type tactics when they identify these weak points, they will look to break through. What I have learned is the Ukraine hierarchy has placed a high regard on Ukrainian lives. Yes, they know Ukrainian lives will be lost but they seek to limit Ukrainian losses. Every Ukrainian life lost is a tragedy – Russian lives lost is not an issue for them.

Ukraine is hitting logistics starving dug-in Russian troops of resupply of munitions as well as food and water. Now Ukraine has hit the Chonhar Bridge with a Storm Shadow missile, this dents their resupply activities but does not entirely stop resupply, it merely disrupts Russian activities. Russian logistics are now world famous for being so poorly managed, this activity makes a poorly organised structure much worse. Yes, Russia will still be able to resupply troops through a road, but this adds a further 160 kilometres to the travelling distance, once again, it will not prevent resupply, it will slow resupply though.

The Storm Shadow is a British/French designed and manufactured long-range low-observable air-launched cruise missile with a range of 550 kilometers and a 450 kilogram warhead. The US has now authorised the acquisition and procurement of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles for Ukraine. All of a sudden the Kerch Bridge will be within range of Ukrainian missiles. Captain Himars will be able to target the Kerch Bridge to prevent resupply to Crimea and they will not need to invade, they will just create a siege until Russian forces buckle. Likewise, Ukraine may decide to target the Kerch Bridge with Storm Shadow missiles so I am waiting to see what they will do, it will be spectacular.