As the snow will thaw soon, it is expected the spring offensive will begin shortly and the tanks supplied by western nations become available. Prior to winter, Ukraine made some stunning gains routing Russian troops from Kharkiv and Kherson, they held Bakhmut and defended Soledar until it was time to pull back to deplete Russian resources.

The thunder runs were first used in the Vietnam war by running M48 Patton tanks as minesweepers by the 11th Armored Cavalry. Instead of wasting time with traditional minesweeping techniques, the US forces ran the tanks down the road with one track on the road and the other track on the shoulder. The M48 could withstand the blast, any damage from the mine explosion would require some roadside repairs from time to time to undercarriage.

The Americans effectively employed thunder runs to storm Baghdad during the second Iraq war by the 3rd Infantry. The American thunder runs were initiated by armour, they probe for weak points in defensive fortifications, then concentrate force at weak points to break through defensive lines.

The Ukrainian thunder runs to take Kharkiv back prior to winter were impressive, they showed the European nations they were up to the task prior to the winter lull in offensive manoeuvres. With the tanks promised to Ukraine, the expected spring offensive has the potential to see Ukraine blast through Russian defences.

How Ukraine has held up the Russian advance at Bakhmut has been sensational, desperate for any type of victory, Russia has thrown almost unlimited resources at Bakhmut. We can only speculate at why Ukraine has thrown resources into defending Bakhmut, we had hoped they had not been enticed into a trap. I think Ukraine has drawn Russia into a trap where they are depleting their tanks, artillery shells, and their personnel whilst attacking their logistics via long-range rockets.

So we speculate where the Ukrainian offensive will begin, it will likely be in the south near Kherson pushing towards Crimea. There is likely to be a push through the landbridge to cut Russian supply lines and isolate Russian units from resupply so Mauripol is a big chance. The Russian forces have been very vocal requesting support on social media, they need artillery shells, they are thrown into human wave attacks with just four magazines.

I thought Ukraine was a little reckless in their autumn thunder runs, they didn’t have tanks, they were riding on Mad Max type fast vehicles to push hard through the Russian defensive lines. They are certainly fast moving, but they lack protection and they can easily outrun their logistics. What they offer is the ability to cause confusion to an army lacking leadership, cohesion and method. We are all waiting for the spring offensive to see what Ukraine will do, we are hoping they will push through Russian lines causing another collapse.