I am asking myself, why is the Wagner Group pouring so many resources into trying to take the town of Bakhmut. From a military perspective, there does not seem to be a great military objective here so many are speculating why Russia is pushing so hard here – I am wondering too.

The first possibility is the Wagner Group is pushing their own agenda here, they are being paid by the Russian government to meet objectives. They are pushing an internal agenda that the Russian military fails to meet objectives, but the Wagner Group is successful. This is very much an internal power play, the Wagner Group seeks more lucrative government contracts and is attempting to build their reputation.

There is discussion that Russians are waking up to the fact that this war is not going well for Russia as the second possibility. This may lead to the end of Putin himself, this military failure may set off a power struggle in the Kremlin. The Russians historically have little tolerance of military failure, this leads to upheaval and the leadership is replaced. It is precisely this leadership failure that led the country into this war, during covid, Putin was isolated during the covid pandemic due to his inner circle falling ill and he may have become obsessed with the goal and NATO in general.

Thirdly, Yevgeny Prigozhin is well connected to Putin himself, he was the personal chef to Putin after becoming a loyal ally with Putin becoming a regular diner at his restaurants in St Petersburg. Prigozhin may be setting the Wagner Group up for alliance to the new regime should Putin be displaced as President. This collection of rag tag low-level mercenaries are not top end talent from the Russian military, they recruit from prison allowing sentences to be waived should they survive. This requires high-level contacts, this really does not reflect well on Russian government processes.

Putin has been a Presidential dictator of Russia since 2012, after being Prime Minister from 2008 – 2012. The next possibility is that Prigozhin is seeing weakness in Putin and he feels Putin might not survive as President. This may be the opportunity for Prigozhin to use this probable upheaval to push his case to become the next President. There has been speculation that Putin is preparing a residence in exile in South America should he be deposed as President.

There is speculation that Russia is trying to get within artillery striking range of two Ukrainian field HQ as the fifth possibility. Should they gain control of Bakhmut, they can position their artillery on the outskirts of Bakhmut and pound these positions. However, this does not discount the fact that Russia could just hit these areas with missile strikes. This would tend to indicate these field HQs are heavily defended from missile strikes and the Russians are not confident that they are capable of hitting these targets with their missiles.

Sixth, Russia is seeking to drag Ukraine into a quagmire to tie up and destroy resources, this is intended to weaken the Ukrainian resolve. Putin’s targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure is a further attempt to break their resolve. Russia may be seeking to negotiate a ceasefire, they are attempting to freeze them out, but this doesn’t appear to be working either. The Ukrainian people are steadfast, they want Russia out, they are not willing to negotiate from a weak position and they are certainly not willing to negotiate their sovereignty.

Lastly, this may be an old plan that has not been updated prior to Russia losing Kharkiv. The Wagner Group is being paid, or may have already been paid to take Bakhmut already. There has been some discussion that the Russian people have already been told that they have won this battle, the objective is now just to appease a home audience. Possibly Putin’s hold on power is not as strong as we think it is, maybe he is fragile

This then begs the question, why is Ukraine pouring so many resources into this town? Ukraine themselves may be trying to bog down Russian troops [Wagner Group] and resources, possibly. Ukraine will defend this area. Ukraine is not giving an inch, they are defending hard but taking losses too. My only concern is they are being dragged into a trap. There is a possibility Russia will be ground down in the very offensive they launched.