I have written previously about the Kadyrov TicTok troops supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine and I have been less than complimentary of their motives to serve the Putin regime. Chechnya has twice fought the Russians in recent history for independence from Russia and failed on both occasions. Despite a spirited uprising, their fight was eventually snuffed out by superior Russian numbers and firepower.

I am highly supportive of the Chechen fighters battling for the liberation of Ukraine. They share a common interest in defeating a brutal regime. Could this war lead to the break-up of the Russian Federation in a similar way the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, this is entirely feasible. When this Ukraine conflict has been won, I am hoping these battle hardened troops return to Chechnya to fight for independence from Russia.

Already the Russian sphere of influence is declining, the neighbouring countries show disdain to President Putin, the fear of Russian military action is reducing. Previously the regional power, the Ukrainians have shown the world that they will fight the Russian war machine, they are not merely holding out, they intend to eject every last Russian from Ukrainian territory.

This provides an opportunity for Chechnya, with Russian forces bogged down in this Ukrainian quagmire, they have neither the physical resources or manpower to crush another uprising from Chechnya. Whilst the Putin installed puppet in Ramzan Kadyrov stays at home to defend the Kremlin’s interests, losses of Chechen TicTok troops in Crimea after being hit with a Himars missile and major losses of Wagner Group troops in Bakhmut place greater strain on the TicTok troops.

With Russia engaged in a rout in Ukraine, the opportunity will again resurface where Chechnya can challenge Russian military power. First, Kadyrov has to be defeated, his hold on power in Chechnya is absolute and this is the problem. Whilst he is running around shirtless making mind-numbing propaganda videos, if the TicTok troops losses mount, then maybe an uprising can take hold.

The surrounding central Asian countries will soon be able to break free from Russian influences, what Ukraine has done is show Russia can be defeated. With Russia rapidly losing power and influence in Ukraine, resources are stretched, the sanctions are beginning to really bite. Hopefully Western nations can impose a stronger financial burden on Russia further damaging their economy and hampering their ability to wage military operations against their neighbours providing the opportunity for Russian neighbours to act and secure their security.