The war in Ukraine is going poorly, even Putin fanboys are having a difficult time explaining these devastating losses on the battlefield. I see lots of African and middle eastern commentators espousing their views in social media comments sections. I like a diversity of views and like to question my own views of the world. These guys are not increasing my diversity, they are just tools.

The loss of Kherson is the single biggest defeat for Russia, at the time of writing, Kherson was still under Russian control , but it is looking all but lost for Russia. Now this is a big statement as Russia has suffered one humiliating loss after another. This was the major regional capital under Russian control, these wins for Russia in the early days of the war are being eroded, they cannot hold on to their gains, instead converting them into losses.

There have been concerns that this is a trap, the Russians are trying to lure Ukraine into an ambush in Kherson. I am trying to work out from the luxury of my lounge room what Ukraine needs to do to not play into a potential Russian trap? From what I can work out, the Ukrainian forces are progressing cautiously, there does not appear to be many thunder runs going on, from what I can determine from the reporters in the region, this is the muddy season and offensive moves are limited.

There is the likelihood that offensive maneuvers will resume in the spring, it looks like autumn is a period of consolidation. There will be long range artillery and missile exchanges during this period. What Ukraine has successfully done is disrupt the Russian supply lines, with the logistical nightmare Russian soldiers are facing, they do not have warm uniforms, socks, boots or sleeping bags.

The Russians are slowly being eroded as a fighting force, they are demoralised and they might not hold up under severe winter conditions. What we have previously seen from Ukraine is a relentless charge, they fight smart, yes, they take losses, but this is expected to a degree against such a numerically superior force. They did not have the weapons or the equipment, but now they are being supplied with western weapons, they have turned this conflict around. There are claims we will see a victory for Ukraine before the end of summer 2023, I hope these commentators are right.