Interesting lessons from the stalled Russian invasion of Ukraine is perceived in communist China, I do not for one moment think that the CCP leadership is stupid. They are smart enough to look closely at the Russian failure in Ukraine and review their own priorities of taking Taiwan, by force if necessary, according to their own statements.   

Putin miscalculated, he perceived NATO to be ineffective, corrupted and disjointed; actually he is correct. Yet, NATO is organised enough to unite against an aggressive Russia. Mussolini was a fascist with illusions of grandeur, he thought he could side with the NAZI regime and return Italy to the greatness of the Roman empire.

Putin is similar to Hitler, he is a brutal dictator whilst lacking the knowledge, skills and motivation of the NAZI establishment. He has a whole country at his disposal, not just a small impoverished nation, Putin has control of a superpower with a large army and nuclear weapons to threaten the world. Russia is now sanctioned by most of the world damaging the Russian economy, I think Chinese leadership will be looking hard at this. 

Likewise, China has a huge population, a large military and industrial base to support military operations. Their military is rapidly modernising, they are adding ships to their navy at an alarming rate, have modern fighter jets and a large arsenal of missiles. At some stage, the CCP may seek to engage in some small military operation to test the readiness of their military, that includes logistics, weapons, tactics and their ability to deploy weapons systems.

The CCP are also watching the Russian invasion, they are checking the support of Ukraine and if nations would consider supporting Taiwan the same way they are supporting Ukraine. The US has offered full support of Taiwan with Japan and India looking to offer support. The US will off the bulk of the support with the UK, Canada, Australia, Germany and France also looking to support a Taiwanese defence. 

I reckon the US military won’t go steaming in for a major action, they will sit back and lock the Chinese navy in to the first island chain. Japan will be critical for this defence along with the base in South Korea. Guam will play a huge part with the US navy preventing the Chinese navy from taking control of the western Pacific. 

The navy will blockade Chinese shipping and their ability to trade with the world. China has massive energy requirements so a naval blockade will prevent oil from getting through. The US Air Force will look to hit the radar in the South China Sea and raids on Chinese naval bases will erode their  ability to resupply their ships. Air bases will be hit with missiles fired from stealth platforms to hamper their ability to respond.

The Chinese naval ships locked in the islands will be hunted on a ship-by-ship basis until they are inoperable or sunk. The Indian navy will be patrolling the Indian Ocean and causing a blockade of the Strait of Malacca and Sunda Strait, the Chinese economy will be placed under duress with military bases targeted along with industrial centres. Either China withdraws from attacking Taiwan or their ability to control Taiwan erodes their country so much that they collapse. 

Yes, the CCP are looking at the sanctions against Russia knowing full well the same sanctions will be placed on them until their economy is strangled. The CCP leadership is looking at how well Russia is faring against a strong Ukraine and wonders if Taiwan could put up the same resistance. They are very much gauging the response of Taiwanese allies and how far they are willing to go to defend Taiwan. They are not liking the support offered to Ukraine and are concerned the same support is offered to Taiwan.