So even though Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko openly supports Vladanir Putin, you tend to feel this alliance could fall apart at any moment. Russia is marginalised, Putin has made huge strategic blunders and they are losing military assets in an unsustainable manner. Apart from conspiracy theorists and trolls from Africa, there wouldn’t be too many that want to see Putin’s forces succeed.

So where does this leave Belarus? This country is a staging area for invasion forces, but I note that Ukraine has not retaliated across their northern border, this is an interesting outcome. Troops and equipment streamed in from the north, the siege of Kyiv never eventuated and the defeated invasion force pulled back. They now claim they are concentrating on the Donbas region, that was their intention all along, nice failure deflection.

As the Putin regime had already installed a puppet government in Belarus, the government was fully supportive. But what about the people of Belarus? Who do they support? Well, they live under a communist regime, the president is a Putin puppet government, this is exactly what Putin expected to do in Ukraine. Having Volodymyr Zelenskyy display the type of leadership that Putin lacked, they knew they were being out-performed by a genuine leader of people.

There is a solid linkage between Ukrainian solidarity and Belarusian reform, if Ukraine defeats Russia then the regime is weakened enough for Belarus to forge independence. Should Ukraine prevail, this will plant the seeds of revolution in Belarus, this could be the catalyst to forming a democratic country. Known as the last dictator in Europe, Alexander Lukashenko has been president since 1994 and has ruled with terror and violance, an opportunity may open if Russia is defeated in Ukraine.

From what I am reading, from the start of the war the Belarusian people sabotaged railway signals, tracks and infrastructure. This slowed down the Russian advance launched from Belarusian territory, this no doubt beneficial to the Ukrainian fight. They also provided data on equipment and troop movements so Ukrainian forces could counter the threat, the people of Belarus assisted their neighbour when they could. If Lukashenko falls, we could see a great shift in Belarus and they are no longer the buffer between Poland and Russia and that worries Putin.