As we watch Putin’s Ukrainian invasion falter, we wonder what his real motives are. we start to wonder if his grand plan for Europe is in tatters. We won’t know for sure if he had intended further invasions, especially for Poland. It would be fair to suspect Moldova was going to be the target of a false flag action too, at time of writing, this is looking less likely now.

Whilst Poland is part of NATO, I ask myself is Poland really safe? NATO has been willing to sacrifice Ukraine, I wonder how many really thought Ukraine would put up such a strong defence. To be fair, Ukraine is not a NATO member and the alliance was unwilling to offer expedited membership. So NATO has no obligation to defend Ukraine, they do allow a degree of support with weapons and support, there will be no direct concentration with Russia though. 

The people of Poland are concerned that Russian aggression will target them next, that is a fair concern. Is Poland next in line? This was certainly seeming to be the case prior to the strong and dogged Ukrainian resistance. As Poland is a NATO member, this would have been a trigger to invoke NATO articles. Putin was working on perceived NATO weakness caused by fractures in the relationship and indecision.

If Putin’s forces had taken Ukraine rapidly, he may have been emboldened to take further action and head to Poland. They would certainly be on alert, Putin may have pushed NATO harder to see if internal schism occurs, then he could fully exploit any weakness. At this point, I am not seeing the type of internal squabbling that would fracture the alliance. This is after all, the whole reason for the NATO alliance.

Naturally, Poland would be feeling pretty exposed if Ukraine was to fall into Russian control. Putin counted on the same weakness he saw when he took Crimea from Ukraine back in 2014. Obama was president and the US and EU let it happen, a few speeches, but that was pretty much it. Now that the US, Britain, the EU and a whole host of other nations ranging from Canada, Australia and Nordic countries with Japan and Ireland supplying non-lethal aid. This is sending a clear message to Russia – the world is against you.