Could Putin use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? The threat is very real, but what is the likelihood really? Russia is losing, Putin knows this, the whole world apart from a whole bunch of conspiracy theorists and Putin apologists know this. President Biden has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin to not use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

So what could the likely US response be? The Washington Post reports private communications have been sent to Russian counterparts warning of grave consequences if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. The New York Times also reports the Biden government has been in constant communications with the Kremlin warning of catastrophic consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons.

The Biden administration has kept communications purposely vague so the Russian leadership is generally unsure how the US would respond. This is a pretty good strategy, they do not want to signal their exact intentions, the Kremlin just knows it will be negative. I am trying to determine what the end game for Russia is. They are already facing battlefield losses, apart from a total loss, what is next for Russia. We could be looking at a total economic and military collapse, much like the end of the USSR in 1991.

There have been varying scenarios, from the US sinking the Black Sea fleet in retaliation to attacking the divisions that launched the attacks in Ukraine, or a no-fly zone over Ukraine enforced. Would the US retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it is considered unlikely. They are using surveillance to ensure tactical nuclear weapons are not transported to the frontlines, they could possibly destroy the launcher prior to launching a missile. Likewise, Russia could deliver tactical nuclear weapons via artillery, that would be harder to track and defend against.